The agricultural trilemma

Ottawa, August 2011

The agricultural trilemma: feeding 9

billion while reducing the agricultural

footprintBruce Campbell, Program Director CCAFS

Outline• The three challenges• Accelerated and transformative adaptation

• Pro-poor mitigation

Challenge 1:Food security

Challenge 2: Adaptation

To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree world

Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Economic effect

Maize Rice Wheat

Food prices are likely to increase…%

pric

e in

crea

se 2

010-

2050

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c

Optimistic

Baselin

e

Pessimisti

c0

20

40

60

80

100

120Economic effect Climate effect

% p

rice

incr

ease

201

0-20

50Climate change will add greatly to price

increases…

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

Maize Rice Wheat

Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint

Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

Global freshwater

useChange in land

use

Biodiversity loss

Phosphorous cycle

Nitrogen cycle

Ocean acidification

Climate change

Safe operating

space

Current status

Role of Agricultur

e

Meridian Institute 2011

Food Security

Fertiliser subsidies

Restoration of

degraded lands

Adaptation

Mitigation

1. Accelerated and transformative adaptation

Parks et al CSIRO

Australian wine industry

Relocation of grape production or wineries to cooler regions

Shifts to other cropsDiversification

Farms of the future

• Climate analogues

• Farmer networks• Policy framework

2. Pro-poor Mitigation

….. are there green development pathways that don’t compromise food security ?

Wassmann et al. (2010) IRRI/CCAFS

Growth in carbon market

• Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV)

• Incentives and institutional models• Work on numerous technical

practices..

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