Hydropolitics TWM Global 2010 (I+II)

Ana Elisa Cascão - SIWI

Presentation to TWM Global 2010

Maputo, Mozambique

HYDROPOLITICS (I): Water and Power

Structure of the Presentation

Today, 13:00 - 14:30• Water everywhere?• What is Hydropolitics?• Water: Transboundary ≠ Shared

Today, 14:45 - 17:00• Water and Power Relations• Exercise 1 • Hydropolitical conflict

Tomorrow, 8:30-10:00• Hydropolitical Cooperation

Exercise 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins

Exercise 2: Making the pie bigger

Wat

er e

very

whe

re?

Freshwater

Wat

er e

very

whe

re?

Surface water

Groundwater + Surface Water

Small water...

HYDROPOLITICSHYDROPOLITICS

big politics!

Hydropolitics: is there a definition?

What can we see in this picture?

PowerWater

Control

Merowe Dam, Sudan

HYDROPOLITICS:‘who gets what water, when, where and how?’

Water: a complex resource...Natural resource Social resource

Economic resource Cultural resource

Political resource

Water: a complex resource...

Water: a transboundary political resource

Enough water for You and Me?

Nile

JordanEuphrates-Tigris

3 BASINS:

Transboundary river basins

But not (equitably) shared water resources

Water Resources: Transboundary ≠≠ Shared

Why?Why?

Asymmetric Power Relations

Asymmetric Power Relations:explanatory factor

Geography Material power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

4 PILLARS OF POWER

Framework of Hydro-Hegemony Zeitoun and Warner 2006

GEOGRAPHICAL POWER

Riparian Position:• Downstream• Midstream• Upstream

Geographical Advantages:• Contribution to river flow• Potential for water utilisation• Suitability for hydraulic infrastructure

MATERIAL POWER

Economic development

Military power

Political stability and influence

‘Water flows uphill towards

money’

‘Who calls the shots?’

BARGAINING POWER:in interstate relations and negotiations

WHO CONTROLS THE NEGOTIATIONS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE AGREEMENTS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE NUMBERS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE AGENDA?

WHO CONTROLS

THE LEGITIMACY?

WHO PLAYS BETTER WITH

INTERNATIONAL LAW?

WHO HAS ACCESS TO

INVESTMENT?

IDEATIONAL POWER: Power to influence perceptions

Asymmetric Knowledge

SanctionedDiscourse

Incentives

Playingwith time

Silent

Diplomacy/Cooperation

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins

• Select 3 or 4 riparian states from your basin and assess the four dimensions of power for each of them

• Power dimensions to take into account:

• Classify each dimension as Strong, Middle, or Weak

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins

Geography:

•Riparian position•Contribution to water availability in the Basin

•Suitability for hydraulic projects

Material Power:

•Economic development•Military power

•Political stability•Political influence

in the region

Bargaining power:

•Water “numbers” and information available

•Power to influence agenda•Power to set what

can or cannot be negotiated•Power to claim legitimacy

(e.g. prior use)•Position concerning

international water law•Access to international funding

IdeationalPower:

•Power to influence knowledgeproduction and sharing

•Power to influence discourse•Available incentives to

influence neighbouring countries•Time factors (it can wait)

•Silence factors (it can be hidden)•Power to play with ambiguity

•Power to influence cooperation process and agenda

• At the end, we must be able to visualise Power Asymmetries between riparians, e.g.:

• In your basin, how asymmetric power relations are?• How determinant is power in the control, utilisation & allocation of water

resources in your basin?

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins

\ HYDROPOLITICS (I)

* What is Hydropolitics?

* Water is a political resource

* Transboundary ≠ Shared

* Power in transboundary basins matters!

HYDROPOLITICS (II):Water and Conflict

Lake Tiberias

Jordan

Syria

Israel

Wes

t Ban

k

WATER and CONFLICT

Armed Conflict

Shiva, 2002

Political/Diplomatic conflict

Social/Environmental Conflict

Where can we find hydropolitical conflicts?

Mega-dams

Privati-sation Pollutio

nOver-

exploitation

Over-exploitatio

n

Mega-dams

Privati-sation

Water conflict: the Jordan River Basin

Who gets what water, when, where and how?

• 5 riparians: Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine

• Unequal allocation and utilisation of water resources

Phillips 2007

Water conflict: Jordan River Basin

• Asymmetric power relations among riparians

• Several conflict events (militarised/armed)/Very limited cooperation

• Jordan Basin: Extreme case of water-related conflict

Interstate water conflict is rare

More conflictive More cooperative

Wolf at al 2003

Diplomatic, strong or mild verbal official hostility

Riparian A Riparian B

DON’TDON’T Agree in positions and needs Share data and information

Engage in negotiations Politically commit

Collaborate / Cooperate Have common projects

DODO Securitise water issues

Use national-based arguments Classify information Refuse concessions Delay negotitions

Use threats against neighbours

Riparian A Riparian B

Water Political/Diplomatic Conflict: most common situation

Deadlock

HYDROPOLITICS (II)

* Water can be a catalyst for conflict(s)

* Interstate (armed) water conflict is rare

* Political/Diplomatic water conflicts are common

Tomorrow: Hydropolitical cooperation

For tomorrow:How to overcome the deadlock?

Way forward?

Riparian A Riparian B