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From Network Revolutions and Trends in Information to a National Public Policy Agendafor Libraries
Marc Gartler
Policy Challenges
Policy decision maker:
“I love libraries, and used to go there all the time. Before the internet. Loved them.”
Policy Challenges
IT manager: “As directed by the County Board, our fiber network will reach all public safety buildings by 2016.”
Citizen: “No libraries?”
IT manager: “No. Why would we run the network to the libraries?”
Policy Challenges
Librarian 1:“Libraries are essential to literacy”
Librarian 2:“Libraries really aren’t about books anymore”
Policy Challenges
School librarian: “We help kids learn”
Public librarian: “We help job seekers”
Academic librarian: “We facilitate innovation”
Policy maker: “Okay…good to know.”
So, what’s the best message…
•…for the next 5 years?•…given the political environment?•…where it’ll have an impact?
A scan outside the library sphere
• Implications for libraries and public access to information?
• opportunities and competitive advantages?• “Threats”? Emerging competitors?• Implications for policy advocacy for libraries
Wheeler on network revolutions
1. Printing press = info explosion, spread of knowledge
2. Railroads = speed of transport3. Telegraph = instant communication
Wheeler on network revolutions
4. Digital = – “end of the tyranny of place”– acceleration of info use & transmission– Decentralization of economic & creative activity
Key tech trends
• Mobile– #1 economic impact– by 2025 will have twice the economic impact as #2
—automation of knowledge work• Big data– The quantified self: mood, blood pressure– Privacy: who should have access to my physical or
mental state?
Key tech trends
• Augmented reality– Increased desire to disconnect?– augmented reality may have a localizing force as
we can find out more about what’s here– Anticipatory (e.g. Google Now)
• VR– Google cardboard < $20
Key tech trends
• Internet of things– Increased ability to change the physical world via
remote interfaces– Physical world is an information system
• Customizable, free, simple digital products• Human computer interaction– Speech, biometric sensing, action detection
• AI
Big tech employment
• Google—55,000 employees – 30,000+ in Mountain View– 2,292 in 2004
• Apple—38,000 (excluding retail)– 14,800 in 2005
• Amazon—25,000 (Seattle only)– Building space for 71,500 in Seattle by 2019
Trouble ahead
• Digital overload• Digital divides• Continued job losses– Lawyers & radiologists perform data analysis…– Middle managers in knowledge work
• Security– A threat to the internet is a threat to everything
Implications for libraries
• Will providing access to computers/internet become an irrelevant library service?
• How will libraries continue to integrate new IT into their operations? At what point does integration stop and re-invention stop?
• How will libraries deal with threats that new IT poses to traditional library values such as privacy?
Implications for libraries
• How might developments in human computer interaction reshape library experience?
• Could aspects of librarians’ jobs be made obsolete?
• Will libraries remain relevant bridging future digital divides as we move increasingly from PCs to mobile devices?
Publishing trends• Who controls value in the book industry?• How will traditional relationships between
publishers, authors, distributors, retailers, and readers change?
• 11,000 books published in 1950• 328,000 books published in 2010• Average US nonfiction book selling < 250
copies/year
Global context• Global opportunities for some, unrest for
others• Climate change shortage, conflict, migration• 1-3 billion more people coming online• Global economy– 1990: 54% of trade betw. developed economies– 2012: 28% of trade betw. developed economies
Implications for libraries• Veterans• Refugees• Info role during epidemics • Facilitating open government and use of
public sector data
Other trends examined• Environmental • Demographics: bigger, older, more diverse• Rising inequality• Public sector budget shortfalls• Education: self-directed, lifelong, collaborative• Work: new skills, new structures
Back to our National Agenda
• From “nice to have” to “essential”• Speak with a common voice• Draft strategic communications plan went to
ALA Board recently• Rollout 2015-2016
Message development
•Education & Learning•Employment & Entrepreneurship•Health & Wellness•Government Information•Heritage & History
Message development
•Funding•Copyright & licensing•Digital content systems•Privacy•Broadband•Library functions in federal goverment•Information professionals
The E's of Libraries™
“Today's libraries, with the Expert assistance of library professionals, help facilitateEducation, Employment, Entrepreneurship, Empowerment, and Engagement for Everyone, Everywhere”
http://www.ala.org/offices/oitp/Es_of_libraries
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