Cascao Hydropolitics Twm Mena 2008(2 November)

Hydropolitics in the MENA Region

Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of LondonPresentation to TWM 2008 MENA2nd-3rd November 2008

2nd

No

vem

ber

STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

2nd November [13:00-14:30]

Introduction

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1 - New research/knowledge on the linkages between water and politics

3rd November [08:30-10:00]

2 - Cases from the Middle East / North Africa region where international water law has been applied

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3 - How to resolve conflicts and promote cooperation

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins

EXERCISE 2: IWL and the Nile Basin case

EXERCISE 3: If I was a donor…

INTRODUCTIONMENA REGION: Transboundary water resources

SURFACE + GROUNDWATER

WATER RESOURCES

TRANSBOUNDARY

RIVERS,LAKES & AQUIFERS

MAPS

North Africa Transboundary River Basins

DRA BASINMoroccoAlgeria

DAOURA BASINMoroccoAlgeria

GUIR BASINAlgeria

Morocco

OUED BON BASIN

MoroccoAlgeria

MEDJERDA BASINTunisiaAlgeria

TAFNA BASINAlgeria

Morocco

NIGER BASIN

Algeria+10 riparians

LAKE CHAD BASIN

ChadAlgeria SudanLibya

+5 ripariansNILE BASIN

Egypt Sudan

Ethiopia+7 riparians

Middle East Transboundary River Basins

JORDAN BASIN

Jordan Israel Syria

West Bank  Lebanon

TIGRIS-EUPHRATES BASIN

IraqTurkey

IranSyria

CORUHBASIN

Turkey Georgia

ASI/ORONTESBASIN

TurkeySyria

Lebanon

Wadi Al IzziyahBASIN

LebanonIsrael

An Nahr Al KabirBASIN

SyriaLebanon

Nahr Al KabirBASIN

SyriaTurkey

North Africa Transboundary Aquifers

Middle East Transboundary Aquifers

Several water bodies, but not much water quantity

Fundamentals• Complex hydrological systems• Limited water availability• Challenges in transboundary management:

– Politics/Power– Sovereignty– Conflicts (others)– Institutional and legal issues– Role of international law– Hydropolitical cooperation is complex

• Transboundary ≠ Shared

1 NEXUS WATER AND POLITICS

2 INTERNATIONAL WATER LAW

3 HYDROPOLITICAL COOPERATION

1 – Linkages Water Politics

• Water a multifaceted resource• Dependency and Interdependency• Linkage Water and Politics• Hydro-Hegemony• Bargaining and Ideational Powers• Securitisation Processes

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins

WATER as a multifaceted resource

• Water is a natural, social, economic and cultural resource

• Water is a political resource as well!• Majority of water bodies in the world are

transboundary• Water is an important factor of political economy

Global Political Economy

Regional Political Economy

National Political Economies

TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS

Water – Dependency and Interdependency

Dependency on water resources originating

outside the country

Strong dependency Conflictive interdependency

Potential Conflict Cooperation Potential

World Bank, 2007

Sharing transboundary water resources

• Water is a political resource

• Power relations are a key element in transboundary water management, sharing and allocation

• Power relations are often asymmetric

Sovereignty

LawAllocation

Knowledge

Information

Development

Agriculture

Hydropower

RegimeConflict Cooperation

Virtual water

Economy

Benefits

see UNDP 2006

WATER AND POLITICS – Framework of Hydro-Hegemony

(Zeitoun and Warner 2006)

Oftenasymmetric

GeographyMaterial power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

4 PILLARS OF POWER

• Select a MENA transboundary basin and assess the four dimensions of power for each of the riparians

• Power dimensions to take into account:

• Classify it as Strong, Middle, or Weak for each riparian

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins

Geography:•Riparian position

•Contribution to water availability in the Basin•Suitability for hydraulic

projects

Material Power:

•Economic development•Military power

•Political stability•Political influence

in the region

Bargaining power:

•Water “numbers” and information available

•Power to influence agenda•Power to set what

can or cannot be negotiated•Power to claim legitimacy

(e.g. prior use)•Position concerning

international water law•Access to international funding

IdeationalPower:

•Power to influence knowledgeproduction and sharing

•Power to influence discourse•Available incentives to

influence neighbouring countries•Time factors (it can wait)

•Silence factors (it can be hidden)•Power to play with ambiguity

•Power to influence cooperation process and agenda

• At the end, we must be able to visualise Power Asymmetries between different riparians, e.g.:

• How much asymmetric power relations are?• How influential is that in the management,

sharing and allocation in your particular basin?

EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins

RIPARIAN A RIPARIAN B RIPARIAN C

Geography

Geography

GeographyMaterial

power

Material power

Material power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

EGYPT (HH) SUDAN ETHIOPIA

Geography

Geography

GeographyMaterial

power

Material power

Material power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Adapted from Zeitoun and Warner, 2006

TURKEY (HH)

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

SYRIA

Geography

Material power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

IRAQ

GeographyMaterial

powerBargaining

powerIdeational

power

Nile Basin

Tigris-Euphrates Basin

GeographyMaterial

power

Some examples of HYDRO-HEGEMONY in the MENA region

BARGANING POWER -in interstate relations and negotiations

WHO CONTROLS THE NEGOTIATIONS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE AGREEMENTS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE NUMBERS?

WHO CONTROLS

THE AGENDA?

WHO CONTROLS THE

LEGITIMACY?

WHO PLAYS BETTER WITH

INTERNATIONAL LAW?

WHO HAS ACCESS TO

INVESTMENT?

IDEATIONAL POWER - Power to influence perceptions

Asymmetric Knowledge

SanctionedDiscourse

Incentives

Playingwith time

Silent

Co-option

Ambiguity

Diplomacy/Cooperation

POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT & COOPERATION CO-EXIST

Wolf et al 2003

HydropoliticalPower Relations

are hidden

3 HYDROPOLITICAL COOPERATION

HydropoliticalPower Relations

must be unravelled

Cascão 2007

WATER SECURITISATION

• MENA region – water is a POLITICAL issue, but is as well a SECURITY issue

• Securitisation processes (Turton 2003, Phillips et al

2006)

Water elevated to

an issue of high politi

cs

Power asymmetrie

s = Hydropolitical a

symmetries

Water as a natio

nal security

issue

Difficultie

s on Institu

tional/le

gal developments & cooperatio

n

By the end of the 1st session, participants

should be aware :

* Existing transboundary water

resources in the MENA region

and* Linkages between

water, politics, power and security

Tomorrow morning – 2nd Session:

* International Water Law and the MENA regionand

* Conflict Resolution and Hydropolitical Cooperation in the region