Economic Analysis

FINAL PROJECT PRESENTED BY:

HINA GANDHI NIKITA ANAND SHIVAM GOEL

OVERVIEW OF PROJECT

• FORECASTING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND DETERMINING RECESSION• VISUALIZING THE INDICATORS USING D3 JS AND TABLEAU• COMPARING ECONOMY OF TWO COUNTRIES USA AND INDIA• SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON DEMONETISATION AND RECESSION 2008

STEPS

• DATA SCRAPING AND WRANGLING• FILLING MISSING VALUES• PARAMETER SELECTION• BUILDING MODEL(TIME SERIES AND CLASSIFICATION)• DEPLOY WEB SERVICE• DEPLOY APPLICATION ON CLOUD

ADDING COLUMN RECESSION

• SCRAPED THE DATA FROM LOUIS FRED WEBSITE• CREATED A NEW COLUMN RECESSION BASED ON % GDP CHANGE.

BORUTA

• BORUTA” PACKAGE. BORUTA IS A FEATURE SELECTION ALGORITHM. PRECISELY, IT WORKS AS A WRAPPER ALGORITHM AROUND RANDOM FOREST.

ARIMA MODEL

• STATIONARIZE THE SERIES• PLOT THE ACF/PACF CHARTS AND FIND OPTIMAL PARAMETERS• BUILD ARIMA MODEL• MAKE PREDICTIONS

CLASSIFICATION

• THE FORECASTED VALUES FROM ARIMA MODEL ARE USED AS INPUT PARAMETER TO PREDICT RECESSION IN PARTICULAR QUARTER OF THE YEAR

• RANDOM FOREST• NEURAL NETWORK• LOGISTIC REGRESSION

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

SENTIMENTRTHE SENTIMENTR PACKAGE CONTAINS THE SENTIMENT SCORING FUNCTION ‘SENTIMENT’ FROM THIS PACKAGE PRODUCES RESULTS WITH A GREAT QUALITY WITHOUT SACRIFICING THE PERFORMANCE BASED ON OUR OBSERVATION . IT GOES BEYOND A SIMPLE ‘WORD-TO-SENTIMENT’ DICTIONARY APPROACH AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CONTEXTUAL VALENCE SHIFTERS, SUCH AS NEGATIONS AND INTENSIFIERS.

RECESSION 2008

DEMONETIZATION

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