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FINAL PROJECT PRESENTED BY:
HINA GANDHI NIKITA ANAND SHIVAM GOEL
OVERVIEW OF PROJECT
• FORECASTING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND DETERMINING RECESSION• VISUALIZING THE INDICATORS USING D3 JS AND TABLEAU• COMPARING ECONOMY OF TWO COUNTRIES USA AND INDIA• SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON DEMONETISATION AND RECESSION 2008
STEPS
• DATA SCRAPING AND WRANGLING• FILLING MISSING VALUES• PARAMETER SELECTION• BUILDING MODEL(TIME SERIES AND CLASSIFICATION)• DEPLOY WEB SERVICE• DEPLOY APPLICATION ON CLOUD
ADDING COLUMN RECESSION
• SCRAPED THE DATA FROM LOUIS FRED WEBSITE• CREATED A NEW COLUMN RECESSION BASED ON % GDP CHANGE.
BORUTA
• BORUTA” PACKAGE. BORUTA IS A FEATURE SELECTION ALGORITHM. PRECISELY, IT WORKS AS A WRAPPER ALGORITHM AROUND RANDOM FOREST.
ARIMA MODEL
• STATIONARIZE THE SERIES• PLOT THE ACF/PACF CHARTS AND FIND OPTIMAL PARAMETERS• BUILD ARIMA MODEL• MAKE PREDICTIONS
CLASSIFICATION
• THE FORECASTED VALUES FROM ARIMA MODEL ARE USED AS INPUT PARAMETER TO PREDICT RECESSION IN PARTICULAR QUARTER OF THE YEAR
• RANDOM FOREST• NEURAL NETWORK• LOGISTIC REGRESSION
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
SENTIMENTRTHE SENTIMENTR PACKAGE CONTAINS THE SENTIMENT SCORING FUNCTION ‘SENTIMENT’ FROM THIS PACKAGE PRODUCES RESULTS WITH A GREAT QUALITY WITHOUT SACRIFICING THE PERFORMANCE BASED ON OUR OBSERVATION . IT GOES BEYOND A SIMPLE ‘WORD-TO-SENTIMENT’ DICTIONARY APPROACH AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CONTEXTUAL VALENCE SHIFTERS, SUCH AS NEGATIONS AND INTENSIFIERS.
RECESSION 2008
DEMONETIZATION
THANK YOU