What impact language do you speak? USAID, Bureau for … · 2020-02-03 · 10 What is not well...

1

What impact language do you speak?

USAID, Bureau for Resilience and Food Security

New Results Framework2017 to 2021

3

What do we measure and how?

Focus on farm-level productivity, sustainable intensification and farm profitability.

We measure at two levels:

• Zone of Influence level in 12 target countries (mostly sub-Saharan)

-livestock module when applicable

• Project level for each implementing mechanism

4

Range of standard indicators (output, outcome and impact) (using standard PIRS indicator definitions)

4 key farm level agriculture indicators:

• Number of farmers applying improved management practices• Yield (production output / unit of production) (productivity)• Number of hectares under improved technologies/management

practices• Value of incremental sales

Context indicators (e.g. rainfall, NDVI) understand true programming impact.

Risk of Emerging Infectious Diseases

Allen et al. Nature Comm. 2018

Impact of shocks – resilience measurement

6

Disaggregate livestock results by 4 production systems:

• Rangelands

• Rural mixed-crop

• Urban-peri-urban

• Intensive commercial confined systems

Also gender disaggregation of data

All livestock systems were treated equally - Apples and Oranges?

What’s in the “+”? Six major components (A to F), including agriculture

Input suppliersImports

Farmers

Processors

Traders

TradersConsumers

Exports

Manufacturing GDP(ISIC 1010-1311, 1610-1629)

Agricultural GDP(ISIC 0111-0322)

Food Services

Services GDP(part of ISIC 4500-4799)

F

A

B

D

C

Hotels

Services GDP(ISIC 5610-5630, part of 5510-5590)

E

AgGDP+ combines agriculture GDP and the portion of upstream and downstream sectors that can linked to agricultural production (measured in constant dollars)

Other sectors’ GDP(part of ISIC 510-990, 1312-1520, 1701-4390, 5811-9900)

AgGDP+

AgGDP+ (2017)

AgEMP+ (2017)

Input suppliers

Farmers

Processors

Traders

Traders

Food Services

F

A

B

D

C

HotelsE

14%

31%21%

10% 14%

37% 41% 38%

21%30%

17%27%

32%

46%

38% 38% 35%

50%52%

49%

35%

49%

38%42%

BGD ETH GHA GTM HND KEN MLI NER NGA NPL SEN UGA

41%67%

34% 29% 32%58% 66% 76%

37%

70%

33%

71%

58%

75%

55% 51% 50%

71% 74%85%

51%

81%

48%

81%

BGD ETH GHA GTM HND KEN MLI NER NGA NPL SEN UGA

AgGDP+ / AgEMP+ Components

Share of AgGDP+GFSS, 2017 value chain decomposition

16% 12% 7% 14% 14% 6% 9% 13% 9%

BGD

ETH

GHA

GTM

HND

KEN

MLI

NER

NGA

NPL

SEN

UGA

Cer

eals

Puls

es, o

ilsee

ds

Roo

ts

Hor

ticul

ture

Live

stoc

k, d

airy

Fish

Expo

rt cr

ops

Fore

stry

Beve

rage

s,

othe

r

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What is not well measured?

Multifunctionality of livestock: other benefits/outputs of livestock production systems – risk management, financial services, crop-livestock synergies, ecosystem services, not captured

Externalities – (GHG emissions, water footprint etc.) only captured on an ad hoc basis and by environment office (e.g. CCAFS PRIME evaluation)

Food loss and waste (including mortalities and morbidities) not systematically captured

2.33.3 2.6

9.77.6

1.4

4.32.3

0.50.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2016 2017

Milk (mt) per producing cow and per beneficiary, and number of producing cows per beneficiary

2015-2017

Milk (mt)/producing cow Milk (mt)/beneficiary Producing cows/beneficiary

2.9

1.5

0.5

2.3

1.2

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Milk yield Milk per beneficiary Cows/beneficiary

Milk (mt) per producing cow and per beneficiary, and number of producing cows per beneficiary, by sex of producer

2017

Male Female

Measurement Challenges