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What impact language do you speak?
USAID, Bureau for Resilience and Food Security
New Results Framework2017 to 2021
3
What do we measure and how?
Focus on farm-level productivity, sustainable intensification and farm profitability.
We measure at two levels:
• Zone of Influence level in 12 target countries (mostly sub-Saharan)
-livestock module when applicable
• Project level for each implementing mechanism
4
Range of standard indicators (output, outcome and impact) (using standard PIRS indicator definitions)
4 key farm level agriculture indicators:
• Number of farmers applying improved management practices• Yield (production output / unit of production) (productivity)• Number of hectares under improved technologies/management
practices• Value of incremental sales
Context indicators (e.g. rainfall, NDVI) understand true programming impact.
Risk of Emerging Infectious Diseases
Allen et al. Nature Comm. 2018
Impact of shocks – resilience measurement
6
Disaggregate livestock results by 4 production systems:
• Rangelands
• Rural mixed-crop
• Urban-peri-urban
• Intensive commercial confined systems
Also gender disaggregation of data
All livestock systems were treated equally - Apples and Oranges?
What’s in the “+”? Six major components (A to F), including agriculture
Input suppliersImports
Farmers
Processors
Traders
TradersConsumers
Exports
Manufacturing GDP(ISIC 1010-1311, 1610-1629)
Agricultural GDP(ISIC 0111-0322)
Food Services
Services GDP(part of ISIC 4500-4799)
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
Services GDP(ISIC 5610-5630, part of 5510-5590)
E
AgGDP+ combines agriculture GDP and the portion of upstream and downstream sectors that can linked to agricultural production (measured in constant dollars)
Other sectors’ GDP(part of ISIC 510-990, 1312-1520, 1701-4390, 5811-9900)
AgGDP+
AgGDP+ (2017)
AgEMP+ (2017)
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
HotelsE
14%
31%21%
10% 14%
37% 41% 38%
21%30%
17%27%
32%
46%
38% 38% 35%
50%52%
49%
35%
49%
38%42%
BGD ETH GHA GTM HND KEN MLI NER NGA NPL SEN UGA
41%67%
34% 29% 32%58% 66% 76%
37%
70%
33%
71%
58%
75%
55% 51% 50%
71% 74%85%
51%
81%
48%
81%
BGD ETH GHA GTM HND KEN MLI NER NGA NPL SEN UGA
AgGDP+ / AgEMP+ Components
Share of AgGDP+GFSS, 2017 value chain decomposition
16% 12% 7% 14% 14% 6% 9% 13% 9%
BGD
ETH
GHA
GTM
HND
KEN
MLI
NER
NGA
NPL
SEN
UGA
Cer
eals
Puls
es, o
ilsee
ds
Roo
ts
Hor
ticul
ture
Live
stoc
k, d
airy
Fish
Expo
rt cr
ops
Fore
stry
Beve
rage
s,
othe
r
10
What is not well measured?
Multifunctionality of livestock: other benefits/outputs of livestock production systems – risk management, financial services, crop-livestock synergies, ecosystem services, not captured
Externalities – (GHG emissions, water footprint etc.) only captured on an ad hoc basis and by environment office (e.g. CCAFS PRIME evaluation)
Food loss and waste (including mortalities and morbidities) not systematically captured
2.33.3 2.6
9.77.6
1.4
4.32.3
0.50.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2015 2016 2017
Milk (mt) per producing cow and per beneficiary, and number of producing cows per beneficiary
2015-2017
Milk (mt)/producing cow Milk (mt)/beneficiary Producing cows/beneficiary
2.9
1.5
0.5
2.3
1.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Milk yield Milk per beneficiary Cows/beneficiary
Milk (mt) per producing cow and per beneficiary, and number of producing cows per beneficiary, by sex of producer
2017
Male Female
Measurement Challenges