Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to...
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- Slide 1
- Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William
Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to forecast weather.
Milwaukee, WI, 1955 Weather Forecasting: Three centuries in thirty
minutes
- Slide 2
- Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will
honest scientists who care for their reputation venture to predict
weather. Francois Arago, 1786-1853
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- Robert FitzRoy London, 1861 Father of the Weather Forecast
- Slide 4
- Elias Loomis 1811-1889 Weather Map, 1870 Such a set of maps
would be worth more than all hitherto done in meteorology. The
subject may nigh be exhausted. But one year of maps would be
needed, the storms of one year are probably a repetition of those
proceeding.
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- Great Lakes ship, 1864 On Great Lakes in 1868 1,100 ships
damaged, 321 mariners killed
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- Cleveland Abbe, Cincinnati, OH 1838-1916 1 st Chief
Meteorologist US Army Signal Service We do not propose to guess at
weather we leave that to the almanac makers, but we shall be able
to assert the nature of the weather up to four days in
advance.
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- Cold wave Rain or snowFair weather US Post Office Weather flags
- 1873 Local rain or snow
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- First known photograph of a tornado 1884
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- Weather Bureau Office 1900
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- Waves from Ike crash over the Galveston Seawall in front of the
memorial to the Hurricane of 1900 (over 6000 died) Houston
Chronicle Photo
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- Isaac Cline Weather Bureau Forecaster Galveston, TX 1900 The
opinion that Galveston will at some time be seriously damaged by a
hurricane is simply an absurd delusion and can only have its origin
in imagination and not from reasoning.
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- The Strand, Galveston, TX 1900
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- Path of the Galveston, TX hurricane September 8, 1900
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- Galveston, TX, September 1900 Waves = 15 ft, Galveston = 8.7
ft
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- Galveston, September 1900
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- The Track of Great New England Hurricane of 1938 The storm was
into Connecticut before the warning was issued for Long Island The
hurricane was tracking north at 60 mph when it hit Fire Island,
which was hit by 15-20 foot storm surge A wind gust of 186 mph was
recorded at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts.
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- Scenes from southern New England during/after the Hurricane of
1938
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- In New England an estimated 275 million trees were destroyed
700 lives were lost. Almost 9000 homes destroyed
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- The Greatest Forecast Ever Made
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- Gen Eisenhower wanted: Full moon 40 minutes of daylight Low
tide Good weather
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- 600 warships 4,000 troop ships 11,000 aircraft 160,000
troops
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- Slide 23
- U.S. Weather Bureau staff Green Bay 1943-44. Eleanor, Winnie,
Hilda (in charge), Marian. Weather Bureau: 1941 - 2 women 1945 -
900 women Hilda climbing a 40 foot tower (on top of a six story
building) to fix the wind equipment - 1943
- Slide 24
- Although much better than what meteorologists had during the
Normandy Invasion, these maps were a far cry from what was to come.
In the 1980s (and first part of the 90s) forecasters received their
maps via a printer. These computer models projections of the
futurewere one dimensional and monochromatic
- Slide 25
- In the 1980s and 90s, the NWS used a system called AFOS to look
at weather maps. Images were again monochromatic. This could only
display maps; satellite imagery, lightning activity, and radar had
to all be viewed on different machines/ screens.
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- NOAA Geostationary Orbiting Equatorial Satellite (GOES),
visible image GOES satellites orbit 22,400 miles over the earth,
remain over one spot 1980s the decade of the satellite
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- Doppler radar images from the Oklahoma City radar May 4, 1999
Moore, OK F5 tornado Reflectivity Velocity Green = toward the
radar, Red = away Intensity key 1990s the decade of the radar
- Slide 28
- Compare the radar of the past to todays. This 1944 thunderstorm
image looked quite similar to what offices were using almost fifty
years later in 1992 And this regional image which was captured
during the June 29, 2012 derecho
- Slide 29
- In the early 2000s, the NWS made a quantum leap in how
forecasters looked at data to make forecasts/look at radar/many
other products. AWIPS integrated all of the models/surface
data/radar/satellite/lightning/hydrology. Instead of needing
multiple display systems, now there was one. 2000s and 2010s (so
far) the decade(s) of the computer
- Slide 30
- AWIPS allows forecasters to have multiple windows of model
guidance and real time information! This is a satellite image from
the remnants of Sep 2004 Hurricane Ivan (40 tornadoes in VA that
day a record!) with surface observations overlaid. In the upper
left window is a radar image. Lightning in purple
- Slide 31
- Slide 32
- The observations taken by the weather balloon paint a picture
of the upper atmosphere: the temperature, moisture content, and
winds. The information obtained by the balloons globally is fed
into computers that create the weather models used by forecasters.
The balloon information received on the morning of the Feb 6, 2010
snowstorm One of our incredibly dedicated staff who take launch
those balloons in all types of weather Temperature trace Dewpoint
(moisture) Wind speed and direction
- Slide 33
- What Goes Into Todays Forecast? Upper Air Data Surface
Observations Satellite Data Radar Data Model Guidance Forecaster
experience/knowledge is the MOST IMPORTANT thing that goes into a
forecast.
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- Making the Forecast Some of the elements that we forecast:
Temperature/Dewpoint Visibility Sky cover/cloud height Wind
Speed/Direction Probability of Precipitation Amount of Rain/Snow
Type of Weather : (Rain/Snow/Freezing Rain/ Thunder/Fog) Wave
Height We use computer tools to draw gridded forecasts for all of
these parameters. We take area-specific effect into account, such
as the elevation of the Highlands and Shenadoah National Park (over
3000) and the waters of the Chesapeake Bay.
- Slide 35
- Each county in our forecast area is its own forecast zone.
AWIPS takes all of the gridded parameters the meteorologist has
compiled, and software converts the images into a worded forecast
Pictures to Words
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- The gridded database allows any person with a computer to
receive a forecast for their specific location just mouse over a
spot and click
- Slide 37
- The point and click forecast. You can get this for any location
in the country, start from weather.gov
- Slide 38
- weather.gov/washington or weather.gov/baltimore Latest
Watches/Warnings/ Advisories Hazardous Weather Outlook Local
Forecast Also check out http://mobile.weather.gov (geared for cell
phone browsers)
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- MARINE FORECASTS We issue wind, wave and weather forecasts for
the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay
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- And aviation forecasts at six airports including BWI,
Washington National, and Dulles comprising cloud height and
coverage, wind speed and direction, visibility, and any significant
weather
- Slide 41
- And so weve gone from this
- Slide 42
- To thisNWS Sterling Personnel
- Slide 43
- Questions? Wrangell-St. Elias National Park, June 2012