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Walker, Hadley, Supply, Demand
Geospatial Modeling and Preventing Famine
Chris Funk
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center & UCSB Geography Dept-Climate Hazards Group
Collaborators
UCSB Geography: Joel Michaelsen, Greg Husak, Mike Marshall, Park Williams, Greg Ederer, Pete Petersen, Laura Harrison, Diego Pedreros, Frank Davenport
Africa: Gideon Galu (Kenya), Tamuka Magadzire (Gabarone), Alkhall Adoum (Niamey)
US: Molly Brown (NASA), Jim Verdin (USGS), Mike Dettinger (USGS), Matt Barlow (UMASS), Jim Rowland (Artic Slope/USGS), Tanya Boudreau (FEG), Andrew Hoell (UMASS)
Climate Hazard Group & the USAID Famine Early Warning System Network
Famine Early Warning Systems• In 1984/85 over a million Ethiopians died from
starvation– Mostly children & women, mostly from disease
• In response, the US and Europe created food security early warning systems– Monitor environmental and social conditions– Inform early and effective humanitarian intervention
• Highly integrative geographic science– Effective at saving lives– Need better adaptation science
Monitoring and assessing El Niño’s possible food security
impacts
House Foreign Affairs CommitteeOctober 2, 2009
4
Source: USGS EWX
Poor rains, March‐May 2009 Poor rains, June‐July 2009
How should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa?
Plan for a bigger problem. Rains have already been poor in most of 2009
http://zippy.geog.ucsb.edu:8080/EWX/index.html
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa?
Understand that it’s not only El Niño; climate change is also present
Last 4 rainy seasons are worst ever.
Main season rainfall decreasing, while second season is increasing
Almost 20% drop in main season rainfall since 1980
C. Funk/USGS
Funk & Verdin, 2009, Real time applications of satellite precipitation estimates
Sept 2009: Warm anomalies (>+0.6C) areoccurring in areas that are verywarm. This could increase precipitationover the ocean, reduce it over land.
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa?
With added concern for anomalous warming now in the Indian Ocean
USGS and NOAA
Caution: Might El Niño instead bring a poor season to the Horn?
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa?
Even more concern as anomalous rainfall IS ALREADY occuring
USGS and NOAA
Surface wind and precipitation anomalies
Warm anomalies (>+0.6C) areOccurring in areas that are veryWarm. This drives precipitationOver the ocean.
… ocean warming also contributes to drier main seasons in Southern
Africa
C. Funk/USGS
Funk et al, 2008, Proceedings
Current outlook: assuming more rains
October - December 2009July - September 2009
FEWS NET Food Insecurity Severity Scale
Generally food secureModerately food insecureHighly food insecureExtremely food insecureFamine
An elderly woman is given water in the Turkana region of Kenya. Many of the elderly are too weak and sick to feed themselves or drink
The aid community in Kenya has been predicting a disaster for months, saying this could be the worst drought in more than a decade. World Vision is distributing emergency rations to the
hardest hit areas.
Walker 1:While we have confidence in IPCC temperature projections, we
should not use raw IPCC rainfall over land
Funk & Brown, Food Security, 2009
Walker 2: Indian Ocean impacts on eastern African rainfall
Observations and model simulations showing decreased moisture transports and increased subsidence over the Horn of Africa.
By Andy Hoell
By Matt Barlow
PNAS, 2008
Walker 3: Multi-model ensembles of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project central Indian Ocean Precipitation
PNAS, 2008
Hadley 1: Components of the Pacific Trade Circulation
Walker
Hadley 1: Components
Circulation Index Annual/Decadal Correlations (1951-2008)
Variable Pr UQ HGT UT GISST NINO3.4 PDO DMI
JFM 0.8/0.9 ‐0.8 /‐0.9 0.9/1.0 0.7/0.8 0.8/1.0 ‐0.2/0.0 0.4/0.7 0.0/0.4
AMJ 0.8/0.9 ‐0.9/1.0 0.9/0.9 0.8/0.8 0.6/0.9 ‐0.4/0.1 0.2/0.5 0.0/‐0.4
JAS 0.7/1.0 ‐0.9/‐0.9 0.8/0.9 0.8/0.9 0.7/0.9 ‐0.4/0.5 0.0/0.4 0.0/‐0.7
OND 0.8/1.0 ‐0.8/‐0.9 0.8/0.9 0.8/0.9 0.7/0.9 ‐0.5/‐0.1 ‐0.3/0.1 0.0/‐0.6
ANN 0.9/0.9 ‐0.9/‐0.9 0.9/0.9 0.8/0.8 0.7/0.9 ‐0.5/0.0 0.0/0.4 0.0/‐0.6
Pacific Hadley Index = (PHI = Prz-Uqz+HGTz+UTz)/3.0
PHI and Related Time-series1900-2008, smoothed
Western Pacific GHCN data
SST trends and means
Radiosonde Changes in Lower T
Park Williams
TMAX – CMIP3
Elena Tarnavsky
Very good chance of anthropogenic drought
Science, 2008
-5-4-3-2-1012345
1948
1952
1956
1960
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1972
1976
1980
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1996
2000
2004
2008
Indian Ocean + Western Pacific SST
Anomalies
(CMIP3 TS)TB(obs)
Supply, Demand and Food Insecurity
• Limited food availability- not enough • Limited food access - too expensive• Limited nutrition - wrong type
• Insecurity = Shock x Vulnerability
Climate trends Population & agriculture trends
1 billion people are food insecure (FAO)3 billion people are malnourished (WMO)
cycles of poverty
Why do we need trend analyses?
• Better disaster response– Decreasing per capita food availability
increases vulnerability– Repeated shocks have a multiplier effect
• Better adaptation– Food insecurity is becoming chronic– ‘Band aid’ solutions do not address core
problems
Environmental Security as trend interaction
• Population• Urbanization• Ecosystem health• Land degradation• Cultivated land area• Yields• Water efficiency• Rainfall• Temperature• …..
Drought =Supply +Demand
Global →Regional →Localadaptation is fundamentally geographic
Trend 1: Global Commodity Prices
Global food crisis …
Trend 1: Local Food Prices
WHOLESALE PRICES OF WHITE MAIZE (USD/MT)
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Nairobi Addis Ababa Dar es Salaam Kampala
Trend 2: population grows faster than yields→ Global per capita cereal
production is declining→ East Africa yield growth
stalled, population grows
Food Security, 2009
Agricultural development can help
PNAS, 2009
Agricultural Adaptation Can Happen
• In Malawi, subsidies have led to a doubling of yields– 100 kg of fertilizer, 3-5 kg of improved seeds*– $5 per person per year
• Millenium villages show promise – Doubling of yields in some cases *
*Sanchez et al., 2009
Agricultural Development Spreadsheet
Cost per ton Food Required recipients in GHA, based on30 million people
Food Required recipients in GHA, based on30 million people
Maize in Kenya $400 per ton 570,000 tons $228 Million
Cost of US AID to Kenya
$800 per ton 570,000 tons $456 Million
Input cost to produce an extra ton of maize
$135 per ton 570,000 tons $77 Million =51 houses in Santa Barbara
Kenyan Agricultural Solutions
Per Capita Cereal Production Projections
80
90
100
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150
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
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Per c
apita
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eal p
rodu
ctio
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yield 3%, pop 3% yield 3%, pop 2% yield 0%, pop 3%
Frank Davenport
Environmental Security*• Boosting water productivity will be critical
– 90% of water consumed by agriculture• Adaptive cropping practices can help:
– Less maize, more traditional crops– Local hybrids (not GMOs)
• Inexpensive inputs can improve soil quality– Both organic and inorganic fertilizer– Ag improvements can sequester carbon
• Triple bottom line water management– Efficiency, equity, environmental protection
* Khan et al., 2009
2030 Climate Change Analysis Framework
• Translate “warming” into climate variations
• Specify the impacts on crops and livestock
• Understand the shocks on livelihoods
• Inform adaptationefforts
Related CHG Research Efforts
• Cropped Area Estimation– Greg Husak
• Satellite Precipitation Estimates– Michaelsen, Pedreros, Funk, Petersen
• Global Agricultural Monitoring– Ederer, Husak, Funk
• Land Data Assimilation– Funk, Marshall, ???
• Climate change/adaptation research– Harrison, Davenport, Marshall, Pedreros
Summary• ‘Drought’ is a function of supply and demand• Focus on IPCC rainfall simulations over the oceans,
rather than land• Indian Ocean warming is causing drought in Eastern
Africa, and perhaps southern Asia• Green revolution is a plausible and highly effective
adaptation strategy• Support for a demographic transition is equally
important • ‘Environmental Security’ requires sustainability
Thanks!
Better Communication?
Better Science?
Better Adaptation?
Dr. David Jonah Western, Executive Director of the African Conservation Centre, will speak on the currentKenyan drought and long term pastoral monitoring
Thursday, 12:00-2:00 Ellison 5824Landscape linkages, mobility, drought and climate change
Summary of Publications• Funk C. and Verdin, J. (2009) Real-time Decision Support Systems: The Famine Early Warning System Network
(2009) Chapter 17 for: Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology, by Springer-Verlag. Edited by Gebremichael MeKonnen and Faisal Hossain. In press.
• Funk, C. and Brown M. (2009) Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Capacity Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security, Food Security. http://www.springerlink.com/content/fw645377u3587404/fulltext.pdf
• Brown, M. E. and Funk, C. (2008) Food Security under Climate Change, Science, 319, 580–581. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/PerspectivesPiece_and_Letter.pdf
• Funk C., Dettinger M., Michaelsen J.C., Verdin J.P., Brown M.E., Barlow M., Hoell A. (2008) Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy, 105, 11081–11086.http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/WarmingInTheIndianOceanThreatensEasternAndSouthernAfrica.pdf
• Funk, C. and Brown, M., 2005, A maximum-to-minimum technique for making projections of NDVI in semi-arid Africa for food security early warning, Rem. Sens. Env (101): 249-256. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/ndvi_projections.pdf
• Verdin J., Funk C., Senay, G., Choularton, R. (2005) Climate Science and Famine Early Warning, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B (360): 2155-2168. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/Climate%20Science%20and%20Famine%20EW.pdf
• Funk, C., Senay, G., Asfaw, A., Verdin, J., Rowland, J., Michaelsen, J., Eilerts, G., Korecha, D., Choularton, R. (2005) Recent Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-subtropical eastern Africa, FEWS NET Special Report. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/RecentDroughtTendenciesInEthiopia.pdf
• Funk, C., Asfaw, A., Steffen, P., Senay, G., Rowland, J., Verdin, J. (2003) Estimating Meher Crop Production Using Rainfall in the ‘Long Cycle’ Region of Ethiopia. FEWS NET Special Report.http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/EthProductionOutlook.pdf
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