VOLKER BERTRAM (DUMMY @ MARITIME COMPETENCE … · 2020-04-21 · © DNV GL SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER...

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Demystifying A.I. (with maritime applications)

VOLKER BERTRAM (DUMMY @ MARITIME COMPETENCE LEARNING & ACADEMY)

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Navigator

AI – What we don’t know…

Machine Learning

Expert Systems

Understand your man

A fool with a tool is still a fool

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“The biggest risk we face as a civilization” (Elon Musk)

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Eagle Eye - 2008

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Scary or not?

How do you feel about A.I. – scared? Rather…

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Long history of not understanding computers – and vice versa

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But the computer says so

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We understand PCs better by now… mostly

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But…

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a wide field

• machine learning

• expert systems

• natural language processing

• ...

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Let’s have a look – a simple look

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Navigator

AI – What we don’t know…

Machine Learning

Expert Systems

Understand your man

A fool with a tool is still a fool

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As in… Artificial Neural Nets (a.k.a. “Deep Learning”)

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Sounds groovy

Glorified curve matching

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As you see… you don’t see anything

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X Y X Y X Y X Y 10.0 8.04 10.0 9.14 10.0 7.46 8.0 6.588.0 6.95 8.0 8.14 8.0 6.77 8.0 5.7613.0 7.58 13.0 8.74 13.0 12.74 8.0 7.719.0 8.81 9.0 8.77 9.0 7.11 8.0 8.8411.0 8.33 11.0 9.26 11.0 7.81 8.0 8.4714.0 9.96 14.0 8.10 14.0 8.84 8.0 7.046.0 7.24 6.0 6.13 6.0 6.08 8.0 5.254.0 4.26 4.0 3.10 4.0 5.39 19.0 12.5012.0 10.84 12.0 9.13 12.0 8.15 9.0 5.567.0 4.82 7.0 7.26 7.0 6.42 8.0 7.915.0 5.68 5.0 4.74 5.0 5.73 8.0 6.89

I II III IV

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Now you see

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Simple tools sometimes just don’t work well enough

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Old hat for naval architects – we just use flexible nice curves

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Flexible, adapt to “arbitrary” shape for smooth interpolation

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Neural net nerds prefer sigmoid functions

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In essence, flexible S-shaped functions

Similar for n input variables

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Countless applications to pattern matching / trending

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• fingerprints

• face recognition

• data mining

• vehicle control

• …

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Many applications in maritime field

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• ship identification

• design formulas

• stabilizing fin control

• ship scrapping prediction

• plan approval matching

• …

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And it works…

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

tugs

Po

wer

(kW

)

installed

ANN

Example: Power prediction for tugs

V

BP

P

speed

bollard

pull

installed

power

Bentin, M., Bertram, V., Entwurfsgrundlagen für Schlepper, Handbuch der Werften XXV, 2000

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ECO Assistant (& ECO Insight) – Machine learning inside

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Glorified curve fitting…

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300-500 CFD results to 1 formula to bind them all

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speed

draft

trim

power

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Best fit sometimes is still bad fit

• Can’t predict random events

• Data greedy: 10n – 20n for n variables

• Not good for rare events

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Navigator

AI – What we don’t know…

Machine Learning

Expert Systems

Understand your man

A fool with a tool is still a fool

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Who is familiar with relational database management systems?

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Sounds groovy – but Excel is one of those

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Expert system very similar

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Rule / CaseBase

ExpertSystem

User Interface

InferenceEngine

Sensors,

Simulations,

etc.

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All we need is… rules

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Do we have rules? Boy, do we have rules!

For rule-based systems, we have…

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All the rules you want… you’ve got it!

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But it never is that easy…

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• Fuzzy rules, subject to interpretation

• I know, but I can’t explain

avoid collision as soon as it is appropriate to do so

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Example “rule-based”: Collision avoidance

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Since 1989

commercially available…

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But sometimes, it is not that easy…

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Expert

System

Domain ExpertKnowledge Engineer

User

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… but as Facebook says: It’s complicated

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Attempts fail on occasion

• Knowledge changes fast

• Knowledge not well documented

• Process not well structured

• Expert not available

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Navigator

AI – What we don’t know…

Machine Learning

Expert Systems

Understand your man

A fool with a tool is still a fool

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Rapid development thanks to some “moderate” R&D funding

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We need

more…

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Why is speech recognition worth billions?

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Computers got smaller

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Turing (1943)

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Computers got smaller

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Smartphone (2017)

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Hands didn’t

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1508 2017

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How do they work?

Sound pattern to words (e.g. using neural nets)

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Go ahead,

make my day

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Sometimes we need to be trained to a special type of English

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Pattern matching helps again – especially for homonyms

Look at frequently used text blocks

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Application: VERA

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ballast

tanks

inspection

ballast water management

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Application: VERA

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Superbridge-X

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• voice-operated

• “no-touch” ship operation

• 30 commands or inquiries

Typical control sequence:

Human: Course 5° starboard

Computer: Course 5° starboard, OK?

Human: OK

Computer: Course has been set 5° starboard

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Next game level – Non-verbal communication

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Example – Robot CADDY for diver support

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Navigator

AI – What we don’t know…

Machine Learning

Expert Systems

Understand your man

A fool with a tool is still a fool

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It’s a tool

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It depends on how we use it

Scary?

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Thank you – Questions?

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Volker Bertram

DNV GL – Maritime Services

volker.bertram@dnvgl.com

+49 40 36149 3457