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© DNV GL SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER© DNV GL
Demystifying A.I. (with maritime applications)
VOLKER BERTRAM (DUMMY @ MARITIME COMPETENCE LEARNING & ACADEMY)
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Navigator
AI – What we don’t know…
Machine Learning
Expert Systems
Understand your man
A fool with a tool is still a fool
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“The biggest risk we face as a civilization” (Elon Musk)
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Eagle Eye - 2008
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Scary or not?
How do you feel about A.I. – scared? Rather…
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Long history of not understanding computers – and vice versa
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But the computer says so
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We understand PCs better by now… mostly
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But…
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a wide field
• machine learning
• expert systems
• natural language processing
• ...
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Let’s have a look – a simple look
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Navigator
AI – What we don’t know…
Machine Learning
Expert Systems
Understand your man
A fool with a tool is still a fool
11
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As in… Artificial Neural Nets (a.k.a. “Deep Learning”)
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Sounds groovy
Glorified curve matching
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As you see… you don’t see anything
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X Y X Y X Y X Y 10.0 8.04 10.0 9.14 10.0 7.46 8.0 6.588.0 6.95 8.0 8.14 8.0 6.77 8.0 5.7613.0 7.58 13.0 8.74 13.0 12.74 8.0 7.719.0 8.81 9.0 8.77 9.0 7.11 8.0 8.8411.0 8.33 11.0 9.26 11.0 7.81 8.0 8.4714.0 9.96 14.0 8.10 14.0 8.84 8.0 7.046.0 7.24 6.0 6.13 6.0 6.08 8.0 5.254.0 4.26 4.0 3.10 4.0 5.39 19.0 12.5012.0 10.84 12.0 9.13 12.0 8.15 9.0 5.567.0 4.82 7.0 7.26 7.0 6.42 8.0 7.915.0 5.68 5.0 4.74 5.0 5.73 8.0 6.89
I II III IV
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Now you see
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Simple tools sometimes just don’t work well enough
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Old hat for naval architects – we just use flexible nice curves
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Flexible, adapt to “arbitrary” shape for smooth interpolation
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Neural net nerds prefer sigmoid functions
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In essence, flexible S-shaped functions
Similar for n input variables
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Countless applications to pattern matching / trending
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• fingerprints
• face recognition
• data mining
• vehicle control
• …
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Many applications in maritime field
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• ship identification
• design formulas
• stabilizing fin control
• ship scrapping prediction
• plan approval matching
• …
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And it works…
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
tugs
Po
wer
(kW
)
installed
ANN
Example: Power prediction for tugs
V
BP
P
speed
bollard
pull
installed
power
Bentin, M., Bertram, V., Entwurfsgrundlagen für Schlepper, Handbuch der Werften XXV, 2000
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ECO Assistant (& ECO Insight) – Machine learning inside
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Glorified curve fitting…
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300-500 CFD results to 1 formula to bind them all
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speed
draft
trim
power
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Best fit sometimes is still bad fit
• Can’t predict random events
• Data greedy: 10n – 20n for n variables
• Not good for rare events
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Navigator
AI – What we don’t know…
Machine Learning
Expert Systems
Understand your man
A fool with a tool is still a fool
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Who is familiar with relational database management systems?
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Sounds groovy – but Excel is one of those
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Expert system very similar
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Rule / CaseBase
ExpertSystem
User Interface
InferenceEngine
Sensors,
Simulations,
etc.
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All we need is… rules
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Do we have rules? Boy, do we have rules!
For rule-based systems, we have…
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All the rules you want… you’ve got it!
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But it never is that easy…
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• Fuzzy rules, subject to interpretation
• I know, but I can’t explain
avoid collision as soon as it is appropriate to do so
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Example “rule-based”: Collision avoidance
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Since 1989
commercially available…
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But sometimes, it is not that easy…
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Expert
System
Domain ExpertKnowledge Engineer
User
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… but as Facebook says: It’s complicated
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Attempts fail on occasion
• Knowledge changes fast
• Knowledge not well documented
• Process not well structured
• Expert not available
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Navigator
AI – What we don’t know…
Machine Learning
Expert Systems
Understand your man
A fool with a tool is still a fool
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Rapid development thanks to some “moderate” R&D funding
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We need
more…
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Why is speech recognition worth billions?
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Computers got smaller
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Turing (1943)
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Computers got smaller
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Smartphone (2017)
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Hands didn’t
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1508 2017
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How do they work?
Sound pattern to words (e.g. using neural nets)
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Go ahead,
make my day
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Sometimes we need to be trained to a special type of English
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Pattern matching helps again – especially for homonyms
Look at frequently used text blocks
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Application: VERA
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ballast
tanks
inspection
ballast water management
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Application: VERA
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Superbridge-X
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• voice-operated
• “no-touch” ship operation
• 30 commands or inquiries
Typical control sequence:
Human: Course 5° starboard
Computer: Course 5° starboard, OK?
Human: OK
Computer: Course has been set 5° starboard
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Next game level – Non-verbal communication
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Example – Robot CADDY for diver support
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Navigator
AI – What we don’t know…
Machine Learning
Expert Systems
Understand your man
A fool with a tool is still a fool
48
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It’s a tool
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It depends on how we use it
Scary?
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Thank you – Questions?
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
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Volker Bertram
DNV GL – Maritime Services
+49 40 36149 3457
