VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05,...

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES

VANDANA RAO, Ph.D.Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs

November 05, 2014Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst

Granted, we don’t have this……

Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India

Or this………

But we are ALREADY seeing more of this….

July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour

Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge

and this…….

and this…..

Source: Boston Globe

Plum Island

And on the other hand…..………….this too!

So what is really going on?

GLOBAL SCALE

− Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels

unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs

− CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily

from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions

− Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification

Atmospheric CO2

Observed Global Atmospheric Changes

Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Predicted Surface Temperature

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Global Sea Level Rise (SLR)

− Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).

− Between 1901-2010 SLR rose by 0.19m

Source: Draft National Climate Assessment

Ice & Snow Cover

Over last 2 decades, − Greenland & Antarctic

ice sheets losing mass

− Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide

− Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

REGIONAL SCALE

Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

Observed Precipitation

Observed Precipitation

Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012

Observed Annual total precipitation changes for 1901-2012 compared to 1901-1960

Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014

Annual Total Heavy Downpours

Precipitation Flooding

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program

Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012

Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012

Predicted Precipitation

Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data

More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour

Design Storm Comparison County

TP-40 Rainfall (1930-1960)

(inches)

NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell(1936-2008)

(inches)

PercentChange

NOAA - Atlas14 draft(1849 - 2013)

Barnstable 7.1 8.2 16 %

Between 7.0 – 8.51

Berkshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Bristol 7.0 8.6 22 % Dukes 7.2 8.3 15 % Essex 6.4 8.8 38 % Franklin 6.2 7.4 19 % Hampden 6.5 8.0 23 % Hampshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Middlesex 6.4 8.5 33 % Plymouth 6.9 8.7 26 % Worcester 6.4 8.2 29 %

More Water……YAAAYY!!!

.

.

..

So, What’s the problem??

The Problem………….

Pre-DevelopmentImpacts from Typical

Development

• High Evapo-Transpiration

• Decreased recharge because of

– less snowpack

– less snow melt

– high intensity storm events

• Short term droughts

The Problem………….

Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping

Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought)

In addition………

Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems

2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water

3: Increased Baseflow

4: Saltwater Intrusion

1. Higher Sea Level

and………

4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR

Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

and………

“Sandy was a whole other story.”Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division

In other words…….

Changing Water Regime impacts our

- AQUATIC RESOURCES- INFRASTRUCTURE

- BUILT ENVIRONMENT

So how is Massachusetts addressing its

long-termWater Sustainability?

Protect Existing Supplies

Ensure Recharge

Use Water Wisely

Smart Growth

Green Infrastructur

e

Aquifer Land Purchase

State Funding - EEA, CZM

Permit ConditionsMA Water

Conservation Standards

Stormwater, Low Impact

Development

Allocate Water Wisely

Permit Mitigation

State Funding & Technical Assistance

Thank you!Vandana Rao

(617) 626-1248email: vandana.rao@state.ma.us

http: www.mass.gov/eea