Update on US Grains Council and World Marketssfntoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Grains... ·...

Update on US Grains

Council and World Markets

NC Joint Commodities

Conference

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Grains Council

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

Developing Markets Enabling Trade Improving Lives

Trade is a Two-Way Street

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Your Global Marketing Arm

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

Export Market Development:

A Public/Private Partnership

U.S.

Department

of Agriculture

US Grains Council US Wheat Associates US Soybean Export Council Cotton Council International

Your Checkoff Dollars At Work !!

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Exports are vital to U.S. agriculture

• Astounding productive capacity of U.S.

agriculture

• U.S. corn yields rising to 200 bu/acre.

• Unparalleled growth of middle class in

developing countries

• Exports are the major driver of future demand

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Exports is not a spectator sport

• Array of policy issues w/far-reaching

implications – e.g. food safety, food security,

biotech acceptance

• Rise of competition

• Explosion of information and information

technology

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Role of Export Market Development

Information as catalyst for change

• Build confidence in trade

• Find common ground with US agricultural interests

and international markets

• Find solutions and opportunities that make trade win-

win

• Build partnerships with export customers

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

What We Do:

Demand Building

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

What We Do:

Policy

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

What We Do:

Marketing

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

What We Do:

Enabling Trade

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Global grains: “Interesting times”

• High grains prices

• China

• Political/economic turmoil

• WTO – TPP – T-TIP

• Policy issues and conflicts

• Biotechnology

• Biofuels mandates

• Market access

• Phyto-sanitary regulations

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Corn Supply/Demand

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Production

TY Imports

TY Exports

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference World Corn Supply/Demand

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Production

TY Imp. from U.S.

TY Imports

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Major Corn Exporters (th.mt.)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

BrazilIndiaUkraineArgentinaOtherUS

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Argentina Corn S&D (th.mt.)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000Production

TY Exports

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Brazil Corn S & D (th.mt.)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Production

TY Imports

TY Exports

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Ukraine Corn S & D (th.mt.)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Production

TY Exports

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

US Corn Export Sales YTD 2 Jan 2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

This Week Year Ago

unknown

Others

11 - 20

S ARAB

GUATMAL

VENEZ

TAIWAN

PERU

COLOMB

KOR REP

JAPAN

CHINA

MEXICO

28,643

12,769

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Soybean Supply/Demand

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Production

Imports

Exports

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference World Soybean Supply/Demand

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

th.m

t.

Production

Imports

Imports from US

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference World Soybean imports

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

China

Other

EU

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Cotton Supply/Demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Production

Exports

USE Dom. Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference World Cotton Supply/Demand

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

ProductionImportsImports from USUSE Dom. ConsumptionEnding Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Wheat Supply/Demand

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Production

TY Imports

TY Exports

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference World Wheat Supply/Demand

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Production

TY Imports

TY Imp. from U.S.

Feed Dom. Consumption

Domestic Consumption

Ending Stocks

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference So what can we expect?

Trends are easy: yield, production, economic

growth, consumer demand, trade

Discontinuities and disruptions hard to predict

• Weather

• Political and economic crises

• Policy shifts – Non-agricultural pressures

• Crises of consumer confidence

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

98.1

276

616

Households (millions)

Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA

Developing countries 30 year growth: 528%

Developed countries

30 year growth: 36%

340 Million Households

. . . . will enter the Middle Class by 2020

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference USDA 10-year Trade Outlook

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference Outlook for Coarse Grains Imports

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference

Feeding the World:

Competition

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Corn Use in Ethanol (mbu)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,0009

0-9

1

91

-92

92

-93

93

-94

94

-95

95

-96

96

-97

97

-98

98-

99

99

-00

00

-01

01

-02

02-

03

03

-04

04

-05

05

-06

06-

07

07

-08

08

-09

09

-10

10-

11

11

-12

12

-13

13

-14

14

-15

15

-16

16

-17

17

-18

18

-19

19

-20

20

-21

134 mmt

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference US Corn Price (US cents/bushel)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Price

Price Proj

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference What about CHINA?

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference China Corn Imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

th.m

t.

TY Imports

TY Imp. from U.S.

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference China and DDGS Price

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference What about CHINA?

Big Player Growing Pains Stay Engaged

Don’t Put Eggs in One Basket

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference What the future looks like

• 1 billion new middle class consumers

• Stronger consumer voice and power

• IT changing landscape of power, opportunity

• Mind-blowing Innovations

• More complex/vulnerable global supply chains

• Increasing competition in everything

• Rise and decline of nations and markets – Much

bigger role for China and India

• Land – water – energy constraints and competition

25th Annual Joint

Commodities Conference U.S. Agriculture --

Elements of YOUR Future Success

• Consumer incomes (stability and growth)

• Rules of the game

• Trade environment – access, regulations, skills

• Consumer preferences and concerns

• Risk management

• Innovation - competition

World Markets:

We Must Be There!

NC Joint Commodities

Conference