Trends in wheat production and consumption in Sudan

Trends in wheat production and consumption in Sudan Mohamed B. Elgali* and Rajaa H. Mustafa

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Gezira,

PO. Box 20, Medani, Sudan

*Corresponding author: melgali@yahoo.com

Wheat for Food Security in Africa

Conference Oct., 8-12, 2012 in Addis

Ababa

Contents:

Introduction

Methodology

Results and discussion

Conclusion and policy recommendations

The Sudan wheat situation is characterized by rapid

growth in consumption, continuous and variable deficit

between domestic need and local production. In that

respect the national effort in increasing wheat

production has been a priority.

Sudan grows wheat in the irrigated sector in Gezira,

Rahad and New Halfa schemes, in addition to a limited

area in northern part of the Nile valley.

INTRODUCTION

Figure (1) Main crop zones of Sudan

Gezira scheme represents the main area of wheat production

in Sudan.

Yields have varied considerably, sometimes below 1MT/ha but

more often well above 2MT/ha, especially in recent years.

Nevertheless, they are below the average for developing

countries as a whole by 25-30%.

Water and climate have been a limiting factor to wheat

production, since wheat is a winter crop, and the winter in

Sudan is too short.

The temperature in most of Sudan is too warm to realize large

yields. In addition, wheat yields are very sensitive to planting

dates (Konardeas 2009).

Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April

Mean minimum 21.9 18.4 15.3 14.3 15.0 17.8 20.9

Mean maximum 38.6 37.0 34.6 34.1 35.4 38.6 41.2

Mean daily 30.3 27.7 25.0 24.2 25.2 28.2 31.0

Climatic criteria, especially temperature, deny large

potentials for wheat to any part of Sudan. The growing

season of wheat in the Gezira is from mid-October to mid-

April, with temperatures, in 0 C, as follows:

Source: FAO

Trials at experimental stations by Nile Valley Regional

Program and Agricultural research corporation show that:

The maximum yields of semi-dwarf Mexican wheat varieties

sown between mid-October and mid-November are 3.57

tons/ha in the Northern region, 2.85 tons/ha in the Gezira and

1.9 tons/ha in New Halfa;

When planted between mid-November and mid-December.

Finance wheat production is also a limiting factor.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

To

ns

Production

Imports

Consumption

Figure 2: Wheat production, consumption and imports 1980-2010

Year Agriculture

Exports

(Million US$)

Share of

Agriculture

Exports in Total

Exports (%)

Wheat Imports

Quantity

(million tons)

Wheat

Imports

Value

(Million US$)

2001 240.6 14.9 0.52 109.7

2002 356.2 18.8 1.03 199.3

2003 410.3 16.1 0.90 190.5

2004 590.7 16.5 1.06 255.6

2005 578.8 12.0 1.45 373.9

2006 569.4 10.0 1.36 336.5

2007 412.3 4.6 1.13 363.6

2008 508.9 4.4 1.18 715.3

Table (2) Agricultural Exports And Wheat Imports In Sudan 2001-2008

This paper analyzes wheat in Sudan by examining trends

in wheat production, consumption and trade in addition,

it investigates trade policy and the potential of wheat

production.

Study objective

Methodology

The methodology employed in this paper includes two main parts:

The first part analysis past current and future situation of wheat

indicators of area, production, yields, consumption, imports and

self sufficiency with emphasis on trends of wheat production,

consumption and imports.

The second part analyzes the government Wheat trade policy

and its impacts on consumer and producer surpluses.

Trend equations

The following section represents the equations that estimates the

trend line regression of wheat production, consumption and

imports.

Production

𝐗𝐏𝐫= ∝+β Y (1)

consumption

𝐗𝐜𝐨𝐧= ∝+β Y (2)

Imports

𝐗𝐢𝐦= ∝+β Y (3)

Where 𝑿𝑷𝒓 is wheat production, 𝑿𝒄𝒐𝒏 wheat

consumption, 𝑿𝒊𝒎 wheat imports and Y is time.

Data on area, production, yield and imports of wheat for the

period 1980-2010 were collected from Ministry of Agriculture

and Bank of Sudan annual reports.

Consumption is estimated simply by adding domestic wheat

production to imports.

Trends estimate for wheat variables is up to the year 2025.

Government policy

Estimation of impact of changes in import tariffs

This analysis uses a single-commodity model of supply and

demand adapted from IFPRI to estimate the impact of various

changes in the market for wheat as import substitute

commodity.

It allows simulations of changes in import tariffs, as well as

changes in the world price, supply shifts, and changes in

income.

The model simulates the effect of these changes on

production, consumption, imports, and prices.

It also generates estimates of the economic impact of the

change on consumers, producers, and the overall economy.

u b

c

e

P

0 qS qd Q

S D

PC

PS

f

PS+β

Figure 3 Supply, demand and welfare

Where

s

iq is the amount of wheat supplied

ic is the supply calibration coefficient of wheat

s

ip is the supply price of wheat

i is the supply price elasticity of wheat

is

ii

s

i pcq

)(*

Supply Equation

Where

d

iq is the amount wheat demanded

ib is the demand calibration coefficient of wheat

c

ip is the demand price of wheat

i is the demand price elasticity

I is per capita income

i is the income elasticity of wheat

Demand Equation

ii μηc

ii

d

i I*)(p*bq

Results and Discussion

Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10

Minimum 48 141 91

Area (1000 ha) Average 137 308 198

Maximum 486 462 307

Minimum 79 172 213

Production (1000

tons)

Average 178.6 523.5 419.8

Maximum 247 838 669

Minimum 0.97 1.1 1.5

Yield (ton/ha) Average 1.2 1.6 2.1

Maximum 1.7 2.2 2.4

Table (1) Wheat indicators 1980-2010

Trends over the Past Three Decades

Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09

Minimum 504.1 729.9 1,156.8

Consumption (1000

tons)

Average 743.5 1,083.7 1,770.8

Maximum 1,152.3 1,663.8 2,523.2

Minimum 286.1 276.9 824.8

Imports (1000 tons) Average 570.6 547.5 1,328.0

Maximum 1,073.3 977.8 1,882.2

Self sufficiency ratio % Minimum 6 19 17

Average 24 49 25

Maximum 43 69 36

Production trend estimates

𝑿𝑷𝒓= 𝟐𝟎𝟐.𝟔+10.7 Y

(3.14 )

𝑹𝟐 =0.262 F= 9

Consumption trend estimates

𝑿𝒄𝒐𝒏= 𝟒𝟑.𝟔+50.9Y

( 8.5)

𝑹𝟐 =0.724 F= 73

Imports trend estimates

𝑿𝒊𝒎= 𝟐𝟐𝟔.𝟔+40 Y

( 6.3)

𝑹𝟐 =0.591 F= 40

Estimations of Wheat trend equations

Years Production

(000) tons

Consumption

(000) tons

Imports

(000) tons

2012 545 2066.4 1509.8

2013 555.7 2117.3 1549.9

2014 566.4 2168.2 1590

2015 577.1 2219.1 1630.1

2016 587.8 2270 1670.2

2017 598.5 2320.9 1710.3

2018 609.2 2371.8 1750.4

2019 619.9 2422.7 1790.5

2020 630.6 2473.6 1830.6

2021 641.3 2524.5 1870.7

2022 652 2575.4 1910.8

2023 662.7 2626.3 1950.9

2024 673.4 2677.2 1991

2025 684.1 2728.1 2031.1

Table (2) Wheat trends of production, consumption and imports

2012-2025

Results Before After %

change

Production (1000 tons)

403,000

341,562

-15%

Consumption (1000 tons)

2,011,002

2,245,446

12%

Imports (1000 tons)

1,608,002

1,903,883

18%

Tariff revenue (million US$)

119.64

- -100%

Autarky price (US$/ton)

4,371

4,371

0%

Import parity price (US$/ton)

176

101

-42%

Price (US$/ton)

176

101

-42%

Price (Local currency/ton)

1,053

607

-42%

Change in consumer surplus 158.34 million

Change in producer surplus -27.70 million

Change in welfare for producers &

consumers

130.64 million

Change in tariff revenue -47.05 million

Government policy and simulation results

Production potential

Sudan has constructed tow projects on the River Nile

In the north where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3

million hectares and also the

Heightening of Rosaris dam on the Blue Nile which will

provide 1.2 million hectares of irrigated land.

CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

The research findings showed that wheat consumption in

Sudan is increasing at a rate higher than production. and the

imports would grow accordingly.

If Sudan continue to produce wheat at the current trend,

the country might need to import around 2 million ton by

2025 to meet its growing consumption.

Wheat yield have improved to reach 2.4 ton/ha, but it

is still below the developing countries level.

The policy of removing wheat importing tariffs;

imposes a US$ 27.70 million cost on producers in the

form of lower prices. On the other hand, the lower price

provides benefits to consumers of wheat of US$ 158.34

million.

In order to bridge wheat gab the government needs to

promote its domestic production which is possible in the

north where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3 million

hectares and also the heightening of Rosaris dam on the

Blue Nile which will provide 1.2 million hectare of irrigated

land.

country needs to attract FDI To secure financial fund for

wheat production.

THANK YOU