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Towards a Green EconomyVisions 2050 - Greening our Economy

Green Week Conference24 June 2009, Brussels

Moustapha Kamal Gueye

UNEP Economics and Trade Branch

Multiple crises

Fuel and food crises - 950 million people worldwide at risk of hunger and malnutrition

Financial and economic crisis - threatening jobs worldwide & poverty reduction gains

Climate crisis – exacerbating the others

Multiple Crises

The Economic Crisis and Employment

200 million jobs lost between 2007 and 2009

The Economic Crisis and Development

• Decline in trade, investment, and oversees remittances

• ODA contraction

• Slow growth – every 1% fall in growth in developing countries translates into an additional 20 million people in poverty

Discounting Natural Capital

• Global economic growth in past 50 years accompanied by accelerated environmental decline

• 1981 – 2005: global GDP more than doubled, but 60% of world’s ecosystems degraded/exploited unsustainably

Opportunity Amid Crisis

Rethinking the Economic Recovery

• Revive the world economy, create new and decent jobs, and protect the vulnerable

• Reduce carbon dependency, ecosystem degradation, and water scarcity

• Eliminate persistent poverty by 2015…achieve the MDGs

• Lower risks, higher returns

From : “Rethinking the Economic Recovery: A Global Green New Deal”, UNEP, Feb 2009

Green Stimulus Country Stimulus

$bn% of

GDP/GNIGreen

Stimulus$bn

% of green

stimulus

Green stimulus as% of GDP

Australia 26.7 2.49 2.5 9% 0.2China 586.1 13.88 221.3 38% 5.2Japan 485.9 10.03 12.4 3% 0.3Korea, Rep 38.1 4.44 30.7 81% 3.6France 33.7 1.12 7.1 21% 0.2Germany 104.8 2.74 13.8 13% 0.4UK 30.4 1.09 2.1 7% 0.1US ARRA 787 5.27 94.1 12% 0.6US EESA 185 1.29 18.2 10% 0.1Canada 31.8 2.03 2.6 8% 0.2source: HSCB 2009, CIA factbook

The Green Economy Initiative: A Family of Initiatives

Demonstrating that Greening is a new engine for growth,

sizing sectoral opportunities, addressing hurdles & enabling conditions

Demonstrating the value of ecosystems & biodiversity,

capturing these values, and reversing the vicious cycle

of environmental losses and persistent poverty

Sizing and incentivizing growth in

green & decent jobs

Green Economy Report

TEEBGreen Jobs

The Green Economy Initiative: A Family of Initiatives…

Eva

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Eco

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Infr

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Evalu

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Bio

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Busi

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investment,

education & training,

metrics for green

employm

ent growth

Decent jobs from Community-based Conservation, PES/ IPES

implementation,

UNDP

UNEP

ILODemonstrating that Greening is a new engine for growth,

sizing sectoral opportunities, addressing hurdles & enabling conditions

Demonstrating the value of ecosystems & biodiversity,

capturing these values, and reversing the vicious cycle

of environmental losses and persistent poverty

Sizing and incentivizing growth in green & decent jobs

Green Economy Report

TEEB Green Jobs ITC

G8+5

Multilateral InstitutionsCountriesRegional

Forums

Business & Civil SocietyGroups

Universities

… under a Wide Global Network

CBD

UNIDO

Regional Commissions

Green Jobs

The Report found that:

Globally, > 2.3 million workers employed in renewables; by 2030, could be 20 million jobs

Greening buildings in EU & US would create 2 million jobs

In China, 10 million jobs in the recycling sector

Green Jobs

• “Where capital flows today, jobs follow tomorrow”

• How does ‘greening’ impact employment ?

• What are the key sectors at risk ? What are the key sectors of opportunity ? What is the net change?

The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB)

• To motivate actions to significantly reduce biodiversity loss by 2010

• Results to feed into Green Economy Reports

TEEB Interim Report 3 Key Messages

• Economic size & welfare impact of losses is huge

• Strong link with poverty & risk of MDG’s failure

• Discount rates are ethical choices

The Green Economy Report

The Green Economy Report

The objective of the Green Economy Report is to make and communicate a

strong and convincing economic case for greening economies and creating decent

green jobs by investing in a new generation of assets (social, natural,

human, and financial).

A “green economy” is not …

• ‘Ecological Footprint’ already exceeds Earth’s regenerative capacity… our demands on the planet have doubled over the last 40 years…

• Global GHG emissions at 42 GtCO2 per annum are 5 times higher than the Earth can absorb …

…One which undermines natural capital.. Or risks human survival

UNEP ETB

Enabling Conditions

- Finance- Subsidies- Markets

-

Green Economy Report …. and its offshoots

GGND : A Policy

Brief

Regional / Country Reports

Regional / Country Reports

Green BuildingsEnergy efficient buildings:

Investments in improved energy efficient buildings = 2-3.5m jobs in Europe & USA.

In Australia a proposed US$ 3b green housing over 4 years is expected to reduce GHG emissions by 3.8mtons/year = 160,000 jobs

In the US it is estimated that US$ 100b to improve energy efficiency of building & cities over 4 years will generate 2m new jobs.

Sustainable Transport

• Shifting 25% of all air travel in 2050 under 750 km to high speed rail travel would result in savings of around 5 GT of CO2/year (IEA, ‘08)

• Shifting 25% of all road freight over 500 km to rail could save 4 Gt of CO2/year (IEA, ‘08).

Renewable Energy

• About 2.3 million jobs in renewable energy sector in comparison to 2 m employed in oil & gas refining industry in ’99.

• Projected investments of US$ 630b in renewable energy sector by 2030 would translate into at least 20 million jobs.

Sustainable Agriculture• Organic agriculture sustains health

of soils, ecosystems & people

• Provides more than 30% more jobs per ha than non-organic

• China increased its allocation of land for organics from 300,000 ha in ‘05 to 3.5 mill ha in ’06

• In Ethiopia, 6 bn is being invested in land management over 15 years.

Engaging Global Policy Processes

Engaging Global Policy ProcessesGreen economy presence at strategic policy junctures:

• G 20 meetings

• Sessions of the Commission on Sustainable Development

• G8 Summits

• World Climate Conference 3 in Geneva (August-September 2009)

• Global Renewable Energy Forum in Mexico (October 2009)

• UNEP Finance Initiative 2009 Global Roundtable in Cape Town (October 2009)

• UNFCCC COP 15 and Kyoto Protocol MOP 5 in Copenhagen (December 2009)

• International Association for Impact Assessment 2010 meeting in Geneva (April 2010) among other targeted events. Etc…

Fostering Global Consensus

Fostering a Global Consensus on Green Economy

• Engaging governments on a global policy report on Green Economy, modelled on the “IPCC Synthesis Report”

• Objective of adoption of the policy document at the UNEP Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum in 2011

Regional Initiatives on Green Economy

• Regional initiative for “East Asia Low Carbon Green Growth”

• Regional initiative on Green Economy in West Asia, in collaboration with Arab Forum for Environment and Development

• Regional Initiative on Green Economy in Africa

Country Initiatives on Green Economy

• Korea: UNEP is organizing an independent review of “Korea Green Growth National Vision” initiated in 2008.

• China: UNEP is supporting policy research on green economy that will feed into China’s national five-year plan.

• Other processes in Dubai, Kuwait, UAE, Uruguay and other countries.

UNEP Green Economy Website

http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/

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