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The Role of Oceans in Global Climate Changes
Norden E. Huang
Research Center for Adaptive Data AnalysisCenter for Dynamical Biomarkers and Translational Medicine
National Central UniversityZhongli, Taiwan
Global warming is in the press all the time.
It is blamed for everything from
hurricane anomalies to earthquakes.
Climate, in fact, is ever changing, and climate change occurs at all
different scales
108 Years
Geological time scaleMarine sediment O18 proxy data
Ocean-land distribution
Evolution
The Longest Temperature Proxy
Modern reconstruction of Pangaeaca. 255 million years ago
when Dinosaurs ruled the earth
106 Years
Milankovitch time scaleIce Core deuterium and O18 proxy data
Ocean-land distribution again
Oxygen and Carbon recordsDeep sea foraminifera isotope records : Zachos et al., 2001，Science
Land Mass Distribution
Geological time scale changes
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Time: K-Years Before Present
Pro
xy
Te
mp
era
ture
: C
EPICA Dome C Ice Core
non-stationary
non-linear
*Asymmetric
Observations
• Trend and cycle are different (PNAS 2007).
• The Earth has experienced much higher temperature in the past. On the geophysical scale, the present period is the coldest but the rate of change the largest.
• Different mechanisms have different time scales; they have totally different meanings, but oceans always play a decisive role.
• The current short term global warming trend is not an exception: it is dominated by the internal variability as well as an anthropogenic produced Green House Gases.
The critical short term issues are the rate of changes, the missing heat and
hiatus of warming trend.
Oceans again hold the answer, for the oceans receive 90% of the
incoming heat.
102 Years
Our life time scale
Instrument measured data,The base of IPCC AAR4 report
IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend
GSTA : The Hiatus
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation : AMO
AMO
IMFs of GSTA
-0.5
0
0.5
IMF 1
IMFs of each downsample
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 2
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 3
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 4
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
-0.5
0
0.5
No
nli
near
Tre
nd
Time: Year
-0.5
0
0.5
IMF 1
IMFs of each downsample
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 2
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 3
-0.2
0
0.2
IMF 4
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
-0.2
0
0.2
No
nli
near
Tre
nd
Time: Year
IMFs of AMO
IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend
Comparison between non-linear rate with multi-rate of IPCC
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025Various Rates of Global Warming
Time : Year
Wa
rmin
g R
ate
: oC
/Yr
Blue shadow and blue line are the warming rate of non-linear trend.Magenta shadow and magenta line are the rate of combination of non-linear trend and AMO-like components.Dashed lines are IPCC rates.
Global Surface Regressions
Global Ocean Surface Regressions
Chen & Tung 2014
The Ocean Heat Content change is dominated by Atlantic and Southern Oceans
This strongly implies the MeridionalOverturning Circulation as part of the Thermohaline Circulation also known
as the Great Conveyor Belt Circulation.
How well do we understand this phenomena?
Very Little!
Hence, the poor performance of our best models.
What should we do?
To cut carbon consumption; to
understand the oceans, of course, but
Survival is a system engineering as well as a scientific problem.
Almost a dirty term so far!
But the Royal Society publication has given it some respect!
Royal Society Study 2009
Size=Effectiveness; Color=Safety
United Nations
& World Bank
2010
Recommended by 6 Nobel Economics
Laureates.
“Earthquakes, droughts, floods, and storms are natural hazards, but the unnatural disasters are deaths and damages that result from human acts of
omission or commission.”
Natural hazards and un-Natural Disasters
United Nations and the World Bank, 2010
Facing the Consequences
• Development, sustainable development and couple with the following measures:
– Prevention
– Mitigation
– Relief
– Adaptation
Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters
Sea Level changes
Sea Level changes
Go Dutch!
It will take a while before we can sort out the scientific problems of global warming.
Meanwhile, we should consider the system Engineering solution:
Sustainable Development to survive.
Number of disasters reported: 1900-2009
IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend
Number of people killed in disasters: 1900-2009
ECONOMICGrowthStabilityEfficiency
SOCIALEqualityJusticeOpportunityAccountability
ENVIRONMENTALBiodiversityConservationPollutionCarrying Capacity
Intra-GenerationEquality
Inter-generationEquality
Life Quality
Sustainable Development
Thanks
Only by developing could we stave off the terrible consequences of global warming for
the poor countries.
Put Global Warming in its proper place as a part of the total environmental problem.
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