The Role of Oceans in Global Climate Changes

Norden E. Huang

Research Center for Adaptive Data AnalysisCenter for Dynamical Biomarkers and Translational Medicine

National Central UniversityZhongli, Taiwan

Global warming is in the press all the time.

It is blamed for everything from

hurricane anomalies to earthquakes.

Climate, in fact, is ever changing, and climate change occurs at all

different scales

108 Years

Geological time scaleMarine sediment O18 proxy data

Ocean-land distribution

Evolution

The Longest Temperature Proxy

Modern reconstruction of Pangaeaca. 255 million years ago

when Dinosaurs ruled the earth

106 Years

Milankovitch time scaleIce Core deuterium and O18 proxy data

Ocean-land distribution again

Oxygen and Carbon recordsDeep sea foraminifera isotope records : Zachos et al., 2001，Science

Land Mass Distribution

Geological time scale changes

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Time: K-Years Before Present

Pro

xy

Te

mp

era

ture

: C

EPICA Dome C Ice Core

non-stationary

non-linear

*Asymmetric

Observations

• Trend and cycle are different (PNAS 2007).

• The Earth has experienced much higher temperature in the past. On the geophysical scale, the present period is the coldest but the rate of change the largest.

• Different mechanisms have different time scales; they have totally different meanings, but oceans always play a decisive role.

• The current short term global warming trend is not an exception: it is dominated by the internal variability as well as an anthropogenic produced Green House Gases.

The critical short term issues are the rate of changes, the missing heat and

hiatus of warming trend.

Oceans again hold the answer, for the oceans receive 90% of the

incoming heat.

102 Years

Our life time scale

Instrument measured data,The base of IPCC AAR4 report

IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend

GSTA : The Hiatus

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation : AMO

AMO

IMFs of GSTA

-0.5

0

0.5

IMF 1

IMFs of each downsample

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 2

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 3

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 4

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

-0.5

0

0.5

No

nli

near

Tre

nd

Time: Year

-0.5

0

0.5

IMF 1

IMFs of each downsample

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 2

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 3

-0.2

0

0.2

IMF 4

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

-0.2

0

0.2

No

nli

near

Tre

nd

Time: Year

IMFs of AMO

IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend

Comparison between non-linear rate with multi-rate of IPCC

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025Various Rates of Global Warming

Time : Year

Wa

rmin

g R

ate

: oC

/Yr

Blue shadow and blue line are the warming rate of non-linear trend.Magenta shadow and magenta line are the rate of combination of non-linear trend and AMO-like components.Dashed lines are IPCC rates.

Global Surface Regressions

Global Ocean Surface Regressions

Chen & Tung 2014

The Ocean Heat Content change is dominated by Atlantic and Southern Oceans

This strongly implies the MeridionalOverturning Circulation as part of the Thermohaline Circulation also known

as the Great Conveyor Belt Circulation.

How well do we understand this phenomena?

Very Little!

Hence, the poor performance of our best models.

What should we do?

To cut carbon consumption; to

understand the oceans, of course, but

Survival is a system engineering as well as a scientific problem.

Almost a dirty term so far!

But the Royal Society publication has given it some respect!

Royal Society Study 2009

Size=Effectiveness; Color=Safety

United Nations

& World Bank

2010

Recommended by 6 Nobel Economics

Laureates.

“Earthquakes, droughts, floods, and storms are natural hazards, but the unnatural disasters are deaths and damages that result from human acts of

omission or commission.”

Natural hazards and un-Natural Disasters

United Nations and the World Bank, 2010

Facing the Consequences

• Development, sustainable development and couple with the following measures:

– Prevention

– Mitigation

– Relief

– Adaptation

Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters

Sea Level changes

Sea Level changes

Go Dutch!

It will take a while before we can sort out the scientific problems of global warming.

Meanwhile, we should consider the system Engineering solution:

Sustainable Development to survive.

Number of disasters reported: 1900-2009

IPCC Global Mean Temperature Trend

Number of people killed in disasters: 1900-2009

ECONOMICGrowthStabilityEfficiency

SOCIALEqualityJusticeOpportunityAccountability

ENVIRONMENTALBiodiversityConservationPollutionCarrying Capacity

Intra-GenerationEquality

Inter-generationEquality

Life Quality

Sustainable Development

Thanks

Only by developing could we stave off the terrible consequences of global warming for

the poor countries.

Put Global Warming in its proper place as a part of the total environmental problem.