The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World

The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World

Leonard P. Gianessi

CropLife Foundation

The Crops That Feed The World

• Wheat

• Rice

• Maize

Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize)

• USA, Canada

• Western Europe

• Brazil, Argentina

• China, Japan

• Australia

Production in Countries With High Pesticide Use

Wheat

Rice

Maize

63

61

78

% of world production

Q: What would happen to wheat/rice/maize production in countries with high pesticide use if pesticides were not used?

Wheat Production Losses W/O Fungicides

United Kingdom:

France:

Denmark:

-20%

-26%

-70%

ADAS, 2011

Wheat

Australia:

Canada:

% of ProductionAttributable to Pesticides

37%

24%

Deloitte, 2013Goodwin, 2011

Crop Production Losses W/O Herbicides: U.S.A.

Corn:

Rice:

Wheat:

%

-20

-53

-25

Gianessi 2003

World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheatw/o pesticides

• About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use

World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheatw/o pesticides

• About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use

• About a 25% reduction in total world production

Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?

Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?

A: Probably Not. Exports would be stopped.

U.S.A. Exports

Corn:

Rice:

Wheat:

17

35

55

% of TotalProduction

Norway

5 million people Short growing season Imports 50% of food

supply Pesticides used on

>90% of crop acres

Norwegian Government Questions

What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the

Norwegian population?

Flaten, 2001.

Norwegian Government Questions

What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the

Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides

Flaten, 2001.

Norwegian Government Questions

What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the

Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Without pesticides – 20% of the population

could not be fed

Flaten, 2001.

Japanese Rice

Famines due to rice blast

1695, 1783, 1833‒1837

Last major rice blast outbreak : 1953

Fungicides have prevented outbreaks since then

Rice blast

Oku, 1994.

Monument to fungicides for rice blast control in Nankoku, Japan

China

Population: 1.3 billion

Pesticide Sales: #1 in world

Wheat/Rice: Self-Sufficient

China Wheat (#1 in World)

Wheat losses due to rust (million tonnes)

1950 – 6.0 1964 – 3.2 1990 – 1.8 2002 – 1.3

Now: Treat 6 million hectares with fungicides

Wheat rust

Zhenshng, et al. 2010.

China Weed Impacts 43 million hectares heavily infested 17.5 million tons of grain lost

Weedy maize field in China Zhang, 2003

Herbicide Use: China

Million Hectares

China: Rice Field

China’s Crop Production Without Pesticides

Rice

Wheat

%

-67

-50

AGROW, 2012

China would “undergo famine if pesticides were not used”. The warning has come in a recent Chinese Ministry of Agriculture document…

AGROW, 2012

Importance of Pesticides Supported By

• Historical Record

• Experiments

• Organic Grower Experiences

U.S. Rice: Weeds Not Well Controlled Before Herbicides

Hand Weeders Not Used

Untreated HerbicideTreated

U.S. Rice Yields

0

2000

4000

6000

1899 1914 1929 1944 1959 1974 1989

Lbs./ Acre

Herbicides Introduced

Herbicide Adoption Complete

Canada Wheat Yields

0

1

2

3

1910 1935 1960 1985 2010

MT/Ha

Herbicides Introduced

Grass Control Herbicides Introduced

Tillage: Australia

Dries out the soil and delays planting

Australian Wheat Yield1930-2010 (Trendlines)

T/Ha

Herbicides introduced

10% No-till

78% No-till

44% No-till

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

44% No-Till

Herbicides Introduced

10% No-Till

78% No-Till

Cultivation of organic soybeans with 30 inch row spacing

Michigan State University: Research Trials

Cultivators

Can’t be used in wet fields

Weeds continue to grow

Crop yields: MSU/LTER(1993-2004)

Organic vs

No-Till

Corn -25%

Soybean -10%

Wheat -42%

Crop yields: Beltsville, ARS-FSP Trials (2000-2005)

Organic vs No-Till

Corn -22%

Soybean -19%

Cavigelli et al, 2008

Organic Rice

Texas:

California:

-60%

-50%

YIELD

U of CaliforniaTexas A&M

Non-Chemical Alternatives

• Not practical on large-scale

There is a perfect non-chemical alternative to herbicides……. But it is totally impractical on a large-scale

Weeding a community garden

In the U. S. 70 million workers would be required for weeding to prevent yield losses without herbicides.

Gianessi and Reigner, 2007.

Weeding Rice, China

Moody, 1991

Adequate weeding of rice requires 1 billion person days of labor

Chronic Undernutrition:Prevalence of Underweight Children

R. Paarlberg, 2010

0

20

40

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

%

Africa

Asia

LatinAmerica

Cereal Yields by Region

0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

MT/Ha

LatinAmerica

Asia

Africa

FAO

Regional Crop Pesticide Markets

Phillips McDougall

Africa:Maize as traditional food

• Main food for 50% of the population.

• 65% of farms have shortages before next harvest.

Maize Yields (Tons/hectare)

Africa

1.6

Global

4.5

FAO

Maize: Africa, Fungicides

Sprayed Unsprayed

Fungicides increase maize yields 27 to 54%

Verma, 2001.

Weedy Maize Field: Africa

Widespread Herbicide Use Could triple Maize Production in Africa

Conclusion

Pesticides are Essential for Feeding the World

A significant increase in pesticide use would greatly improve international food security

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