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The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World. Leonard P. Gianessi CropLife Foundation. The Crops That Feed T he World. Wheat Rice Maize. Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize). USA, Canada Western Europe Brazil, Argentina China, Japan Australia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World
Leonard P. Gianessi
CropLife Foundation
The Crops That Feed The World
• Wheat
• Rice
• Maize
Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize)
• USA, Canada
• Western Europe
• Brazil, Argentina
• China, Japan
• Australia
Production in Countries With High Pesticide Use
Wheat
Rice
Maize
63
61
78
% of world production
Q: What would happen to wheat/rice/maize production in countries with high pesticide use if pesticides were not used?
Wheat Production Losses W/O Fungicides
United Kingdom:
France:
Denmark:
-20%
-26%
-70%
ADAS, 2011
Wheat
Australia:
Canada:
% of ProductionAttributable to Pesticides
37%
24%
Deloitte, 2013Goodwin, 2011
Crop Production Losses W/O Herbicides: U.S.A.
Corn:
Rice:
Wheat:
%
-20
-53
-25
Gianessi 2003
World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheatw/o pesticides
• About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use
World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheatw/o pesticides
• About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use
• About a 25% reduction in total world production
Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?
Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?
A: Probably Not. Exports would be stopped.
U.S.A. Exports
Corn:
Rice:
Wheat:
17
35
55
% of TotalProduction
Norway
5 million people Short growing season Imports 50% of food
supply Pesticides used on
>90% of crop acres
Norwegian Government Questions
What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the
Norwegian population?
Flaten, 2001.
Norwegian Government Questions
What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the
Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides
Flaten, 2001.
Norwegian Government Questions
What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the
Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Without pesticides – 20% of the population
could not be fed
Flaten, 2001.
Japanese Rice
Famines due to rice blast
1695, 1783, 1833‒1837
Last major rice blast outbreak : 1953
Fungicides have prevented outbreaks since then
Rice blast
Oku, 1994.
Monument to fungicides for rice blast control in Nankoku, Japan
China
Population: 1.3 billion
Pesticide Sales: #1 in world
Wheat/Rice: Self-Sufficient
China Wheat (#1 in World)
Wheat losses due to rust (million tonnes)
1950 – 6.0 1964 – 3.2 1990 – 1.8 2002 – 1.3
Now: Treat 6 million hectares with fungicides
Wheat rust
Zhenshng, et al. 2010.
China Weed Impacts 43 million hectares heavily infested 17.5 million tons of grain lost
Weedy maize field in China Zhang, 2003
Herbicide Use: China
Million Hectares
China: Rice Field
China’s Crop Production Without Pesticides
Rice
Wheat
%
-67
-50
AGROW, 2012
China would “undergo famine if pesticides were not used”. The warning has come in a recent Chinese Ministry of Agriculture document…
AGROW, 2012
Importance of Pesticides Supported By
• Historical Record
• Experiments
• Organic Grower Experiences
U.S. Rice: Weeds Not Well Controlled Before Herbicides
Hand Weeders Not Used
Untreated HerbicideTreated
U.S. Rice Yields
0
2000
4000
6000
1899 1914 1929 1944 1959 1974 1989
Lbs./ Acre
Herbicides Introduced
Herbicide Adoption Complete
Canada Wheat Yields
0
1
2
3
1910 1935 1960 1985 2010
MT/Ha
Herbicides Introduced
Grass Control Herbicides Introduced
Tillage: Australia
Dries out the soil and delays planting
Australian Wheat Yield1930-2010 (Trendlines)
T/Ha
Herbicides introduced
10% No-till
78% No-till
44% No-till
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
44% No-Till
Herbicides Introduced
10% No-Till
78% No-Till
Cultivation of organic soybeans with 30 inch row spacing
Michigan State University: Research Trials
Cultivators
Can’t be used in wet fields
Weeds continue to grow
Crop yields: MSU/LTER(1993-2004)
Organic vs
No-Till
Corn -25%
Soybean -10%
Wheat -42%
Crop yields: Beltsville, ARS-FSP Trials (2000-2005)
Organic vs No-Till
Corn -22%
Soybean -19%
Cavigelli et al, 2008
Organic Rice
Texas:
California:
-60%
-50%
YIELD
U of CaliforniaTexas A&M
Non-Chemical Alternatives
• Not practical on large-scale
There is a perfect non-chemical alternative to herbicides……. But it is totally impractical on a large-scale
Weeding a community garden
In the U. S. 70 million workers would be required for weeding to prevent yield losses without herbicides.
Gianessi and Reigner, 2007.
Weeding Rice, China
Moody, 1991
Adequate weeding of rice requires 1 billion person days of labor
Chronic Undernutrition:Prevalence of Underweight Children
R. Paarlberg, 2010
0
20
40
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
%
Africa
Asia
LatinAmerica
Cereal Yields by Region
0
1
2
3
4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
MT/Ha
LatinAmerica
Asia
Africa
FAO
Regional Crop Pesticide Markets
Phillips McDougall
Africa:Maize as traditional food
• Main food for 50% of the population.
• 65% of farms have shortages before next harvest.
Maize Yields (Tons/hectare)
Africa
1.6
Global
4.5
FAO
Maize: Africa, Fungicides
Sprayed Unsprayed
Fungicides increase maize yields 27 to 54%
Verma, 2001.
Weedy Maize Field: Africa
Widespread Herbicide Use Could triple Maize Production in Africa
Conclusion
Pesticides are Essential for Feeding the World
A significant increase in pesticide use would greatly improve international food security
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