The Long-Term RCS Opportunity (2019-2028)

GSMA RCS Live Webinar Series, 13 May 2020

Nick Lane Chief Insight Analyst, Mobilesquared

nick@mobilesquared.co.uk

@Mobilesquared

The Long-Term RCS Opportunity (2019-2028)

About MobilesquaredLeading analysts in Business Messaging

We provide definitive data and expert insight

We work with the leading mobile and tech companies across the mobile ecosystem, from regulators, mobile operators, service providers, brands, agencies, start-ups … to understand mobile and engagement. We do this through extensive research, deep analysis based on years of experience, and forecasting market opportunities based on actionable numbers.

Accurate data. No hype.

www.mobilesquared.co.uk @Mobilesquared

Mobilesquared updates its business messaging forecasts on a bi-annual basis. These are based on on-going research, discussions and interviews with the SMS

/ RCS / WhatsApp / Apple ecosystem. This presentation contains our latest forecasts, published between November 2019 – May 2020.

• Global A2P SMS Business Messaging Databook, Nov 2019• Global RCS Business Messaging Databook, Feb 2020• WhatsApp Business Messaging Databook, Apr 2020

• Long-Term Global RCS Forecasts Databook, 2018-2028, May 2020• What If Apple Did RCS Report, May 2020

Our next updates will be based on COVID-19 impact published from June 2020.

@Mobilesquared

COVID-19 RESEARCHgo to

mobilesquared.co.uk

Our global forecasts are based on granular projections covering the top 200 markets

@Mobilesquared

LONG-TERM FORECASTS

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

SHORT-TERM

FULL-TERM

LONG-TERM

Why the need for 10-year forecastsRCS MNO launches, by year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2018 projected rollouts June 2019 projected rollouts Feb 2020 projected rollouts

2018 projections

2019 projections

2020 projections

-

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

16,000,000,000

18,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

February 2020 update June 2019 update March 2019 original

Why the need for 10-year forecastsRBM spend declining before its even started ($)

Global RCS / RBM deployments, 2017-2028Ceiling reached 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

RCS networks RBM networks

Global RCS / RBM users, 10-year forecastsShort-term / full-term / long-term outlook

-

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

5,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

RCS users RBM users

CAGR 64% / 135%

CAGR 19% / 26%

CAGR 6% / 6%

Global RBM total traffic, 2018-2028Short-term / full-term / long-term outlook

-

200,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

800,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,200,000,000,000

1,400,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

A2P Session A2P Event P2A Session P2A Event

CAGR 782%

CAGR 96%

CAGR 16%

Global RBM traffic, 2018-2028By type / initiation

-

200,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

800,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,200,000,000,000

1,400,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

A2P Session A2P Event P2A Session P2A Event

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

A2P P2A

RBM event / session RBM A2P / P2A

-

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Global

Global RBM spend, 10-year forecasts($)

CAGR 1,689%

CAGR 102%

CAGR 16%

Cumulative RBM spend, short term vs long term($)

-

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Short-term (2018-2023) Long-term (2024-2028) -

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Short-term (2018-2023) Long-term (2024-2028)

Cumulative A2P Cumulative P2A

12%

Cumulative RBM spend A2P / P2A

88%

Brands to spend $120.88 billion on RBM

84%

78%

$106.24 BILLION

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

SHORT-TERM

FULL-TERM

LONG-TERM

$14.64 BILLION

$120.88 BILLION

RB

M SP

END

SHORT-TERM FORECASTS

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

SHORT-TERM

FULL-TERM

LONG-TERM

Global business messaging traffic, 2018-2023A2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business

-

500,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,500,000,000,000

2,000,000,000,000

2,500,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

SMS RCS WhatsApp Business

Global business messaging traffic, 2018-2023A2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business

-

500,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,500,000,000,000

2,000,000,000,000

2,500,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Total A2P traffic Total P2A traffic

Next-gen business messaging, 2018-2023Traffic

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

P2A A2P

-

50,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

350,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

450,000,000,000

500,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

A2P P2A

RBM traffic WhatsApp Business traffic

A2P P2ASMS

RBM

WhatsApp

ABC

Total global business messaging spend 2018-2023($)

-

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Global RBM spend 2018-2023($)

-

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

SMS RCS WhatsApp Business

Global business messaging value chainA2P SMS / RBM / WhatsApp Business

-

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MNO Aggregator WhatsApp Business

SHORT-TERM FORECASTS:WHAT IF APPLE DID RCS?

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

SHORT-TERM

FULL-TERM

LONG-TERM

Apple’s immediate impact Short-term impact on RCS users

-

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

2020 2021 2022 2023

Total Apple RCS users Total Android RCS users0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Year1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2020 2021 2022 2023

RCS P2P RCS A2P

Apple impact on total P2P RCS users

Apple uplift on total P2P / A2P users

Apple uplift from launch

Apple RCS 1st year uplift, top 30 markets($)

390%

171%138%

263%

-

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

2,019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Android RCS Apple RCS

Apple uplift on RBM spend($)

18%

48%

36%

32%

@Mobilesquared

To learn more about all-things business messaging please get in touch.

Impact of COVID-19 on business messaging released June 2020

Nick Lane, chief insight analyst

nick@mobilesquared.co.uk

+44 (0) 1182 149 777 / +44 (0) 7976 057 052 / Skype: nick-lane1

mobilesquared.co.uk