The Future of Human Resources OBHR E-100. Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and...

The Future of Human ResourcesOBHR E-100

Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and projections of Census/BLS and

BEA data.

Millions of People

Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Labor Needed

Labor Available

140142144146148150152154

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

A Growing Shortage of Workers in the U.S.Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute

The future

Describe your perfect work situation !!!!!

What does the work look like?

What does the company value?

Where are you doing the work? What does it look like?

What benefits and perks do you value?

How do you like to be managed?

What motivates you? How do you like receive positive feedback?

How long do you imagine being with a company?

Growth in the Working-Age Population Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute

Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why Acquisition and Retention

Strategies Don’t Work, p.6

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy JapanGermanyKorea

1970-2010

2010-2050

Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute

Source: Age Wave

Tot

al F

ertil

ity R

ate

3.32.8 2.9

3.6

2.02.5 2.5

5.65.9

2.01.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

1.8

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India

1960 2000

Total Fertility Rate

1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

80

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration

Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.

But, a Dramatic Increase in Life Expectancy Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute

* U.S. Life Expectancy Hits New High of Nearly 78 Years," Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2005, Centers for Disease Control an Prevention's National Center for Health

* 78 in 2005

A Serious Skill Mismatch: What’s Ahead in the U.S.? Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute

Not enough college graduates By the time they turn 30, only 30% of the

U.S. population will have a college degree Over two-thirds of the new jobs created in

the U.S. will prefer a college degree Critical shortage in key skill sets

Computer science, engineering, science, nursing

A growing number of high school dropouts And few high school graduates with solid

vocational training

Less interested in “responsibility”

as well as . . .

Highly diverse – in more than just ethnicity

Source: In part, The Seventh-Annual Workplace Report, Challenges Facing the American Workplace, Summary of Findings,” Employment Policy Foundation, 2002

Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO

Magazine, 2005

Four generations are being asked to coexist

The Emerging Workforce Has Different ValuesSource: Tamara K. Erikson The Concours Institute

Silent Gen Boomer Generation X Generation Y

Born 1928-1945 Born 1946-1964/5 Born 1965/6-1976-80 Born 1980-2000

Key shaping events: Too late to be war heroes; too early to be free spirits

First manned space flight

Successful resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis

Significant increase in economic prosperity: home and TV ownership

Growth in white collar jobs

The Silent Generation’s Key Characteristics

Born 1928-45 Teens: 1942-1963 Now: 62+

Characteristics in the workplace:Respect authority, Hierarchical, Loyal to Institutions, Rule Makers and Conformists, Motivated by financial success and securityExperiencing ample retirement payouts

Boomers’ Key Characteristics

Key Shaping Events:

Raised to never follow a Hitler, Stalin or Big Brother

Vietnam War

Assassinations of idealistic leaders, Kennedy and King

Widespread protests – increase in crime and substance abuse

Civil Rights movement

Watergate and Nixon’s resignation

Born 1946-1964 Teens: 1960-1982 Now: 43-61

Key Characteristics:Anti-authoritarianIdealistic – seeking inner life, deeper meaningMotivated by a changing worldCompetitive

Generation X’s Key Characteristics

Born 1965-1997 Teens 1980-1997 Now: 28-42

Key Shaping Events: End of the Cold War – fall of the Berlin Wall Significant increase in their parents’ divorce rate Entry of women into the workforce – latch-key kids Significant increase in their parents’ unemployment Growth of the Internet

Key Characteristics:Self-reliantAnti-InstitutionalRule morphingTribalInformation richMost aspire to be their own boss

Shaping Events

Terrorism: 911, World Trade Center, Oklahoma City

School violence: Columbine

Global warming, natural disasters, AIDS

Ubiquitous technology

Working mothers

Unprecedented bull market

Pro-child culture

Gen Y’s Key Characteristics: Milleniums

Born 1980-2000? Today 7 - 27

Key CharacteristicsConfident and full of self-esteem TolerantPro-learning and goal oriented Plugged into infoSocially conscious Family centricSpiritual 90% are “very close” to parents

Y’s as the predominant workforce

Y’s live asynchronous lives – mulit-tasking comes naturally

Y’s coordinate, rather than plan

Y’s solve problems and perform tasks collaboratively

Y’s select and use technology in ways that make their lives easier

Y’s find new uses for technology that is “good enough”

Y’s value the role of reputation in the digital world – and rely on reputation rather than hierarchy

Y’s know how to work together and alone

Y’s “own” the technology, redrawing the line between institutional and personal

Add that to Workplace TrendsSource: SHRM Workplace Forecast: A Strategic Outlook

Rise in Health Care Costs Focus on domestic safety & security Use of technology to communicate with

employees Focus on global job security Use and development of e-learning Exporting of U.S. manufacturing jobs to

developing countries Changing definition of family

Fastest growing occupations 2002-2012

Occupation Percent growth in employment projected

Medical Assistants 59%

Network/systems and

Data communications Analysts 57%

Physician Assistants 49%

Social & Human Aides 49%

Home Health Aides 48%

Med records and Health Info Techs 47%

Physical therapy Aides 46%

Computer Apps Engineers 45%

Computer Systems Engineers 45%

Fitness Trainers 44%Database Administrators 44% Source: Bureau of

Labor Statistics

Most U.S. Job Losses: 2002-2012

Industry Thousands

Apparel Manufacturing -205

Aerospace manufacturing -83

Electronic component manufacturing -79

Computer manufacturing -68

Fabric Mills -67

Wired telecomm carriers -62

Navigational, measuring manufacturing -55

Pulp and Paper mills -42

Postal Service -38

Petroleum wholesalers -34

Oil and gas extraction -31Travel agents -31 Source: Bureau of Labor

Statistics

Strategic HR ManagementThe Traditional & New Economies

Competitive Environment Gradual evolutionary

change Stability Clearly defined industry

boundaries Power from incumbency Domestic Markets Employee Loyalty

Business Imperatives Quality Consistency and control Scale economies Mass customization Customer-led innovation Workforce development Risk management Value chain dominance

Competitive Environment Frequent, discontinuous change Creative destruction Value chains in flux Competitive advantage hard to

sustain Global markets Employee free agency

Business Imperatives Speed Flexibility and agility Digitization & unbundling Customer intimacy Technology-led innovation Organizational capabilities Strategic ‘bets’ Strategic partnering

The Past The New Economy

HR’s Role Sell traditional HR interventions Serve the internal customers Build individual employee skills Execute business strategy Defend company culture Develop policies and programs

Measures of HR Effectiveness Employee satisfaction Internal customer satisfaction HR activity levels Staffing levels

HR’s Role Support critical business

objectives Serve the company’s customers Build the organization’s

capabilities Formulate business strategy Ensure value proposition

alignment Develop guiding principles

Measures of HR Effectiveness Employee engagement and

productivity External customer satisfaction Strength of organizational

capabilities Company’s internal alignment with

value proposition to customers

The Past The New Economy

Key HR TrendsSource: SHRM Workplace Forecast: A Strategic Outlook

Growing complexity of legal compliance Use of technology to perform transactional HR functions Preparing for the next wave of retirement and labor shortage Responding to the changing demographics of a diverse

workforce Demonstrating HR’s return on investment Emphasis on HR competencies for practitioners HR’s role in promoting corporate ethics Measuring human capital Building people management or human capital components into

key business transactions Increase in outsourcing for HR expertise

The Conference Board of Canada:Hot HR Issues for the Future

1. Leadership Development: build your leadership pipeline

2. Leadership Hierarchy: must be dispersed throughout the organization

3. Employment branding: get your share of the talent you seek

4. Mindshare: get your staff focused on their work

5. Organizational capacity: must exceed the rate of change in the business environment

6. Diversity: Get ready for a heterogeneous workforce and make diversity a living value

7. Internal communication: Line managers must communicate effectively with employees

8. HR Measures: how are you helping?

Attract, Retain, and Engage the Future Workforce

Rethink “retirement” Rethink “retirement” Careers don’t just stop; they slow downCareers don’t just stop; they slow down

Create new career paths - Create new career paths - Lateral and “downward” movement. Flex hours & telecommutingLateral and “downward” movement. Flex hours & telecommuting

Recruit at multiple entry points Recruit at multiple entry points Diversity, stay-at-home parentsDiversity, stay-at-home parents

Recent grads, mid-career changers, retireesRecent grads, mid-career changers, retirees

Invest in developmentInvest in development Teach the needed skillsTeach the needed skills

Engage hearts and mindsEngage hearts and minds Future promotion and “employee of the month” won’t motivate this generationFuture promotion and “employee of the month” won’t motivate this generation

Respect, interesting & challenging work, skills development, freedom on how work gets doneRespect, interesting & challenging work, skills development, freedom on how work gets done

Best wishes in your studies!

Careers in Human Resources

BenefitsCommunicationsTraining and DevelopmentOrganizational Behaviorist or DesignerEmployee and/or Labor RelationsHRISRecruiterStrategic PlannerCompensationGeneralist