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The Future of Campus Experiences
The Art & Science ofLooking at the Future
Garry GoldenForward Elements
April 4, 2019
Foresight 101Era-based Change
Generating Ideas Scanning for Signals
Wrap upNext Steps
1) Why you selected this quote!
2) Describe the first (or memorable) time you were asked to think about the future
What? Why? How?
More or Less Change Ahead?
Next
ten years
Last
ten years
2009 – 2019 2020-2030
Let’s talk about our ability to have …❑ Hindsight ❑ Insight ❑ Foresight
Defining Foresight
How would you describe foresight to a colleague or student?
What do you do? Outputs? Outcomes?
… the ability to create and maintain high quality, coherent and functional forward views
… the ability to anticipate and lead change
… the ability to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organizationally useful ways (APF)
… an organized and systematic process to reduce the uncertainty of the future
… a universal human capacity which allows people to think ahead and consider, model, create, respond to future eventualities (Slaughter)
Foresight = Front end of Innovation
Era-based Dynamics of Change Incremental Innovation
within an Era
Transformational Innovation across a New Eras
Performance over TimeS-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras
?
Slow Change‘Emerging’
Rapid Change
‘Accelerating’
Plateau of Change
‘Mainstreaming + Diminishing Returns’
Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!
Eras of Mobility
Human / Animals
Cars
Boats
Planes Rockets
What is next?
❑ Electric Vehicles (Battery + Fuel cell)
❑ Assistive + Autonomous
❑ Low-Volume Production
❑ Sub-orbital Space
Rail
2004
Tapping Your Inner Futurist: Monitoring Signals of Change
2007 2010 20152022
2035
2045
Eras of Manufacturing
Clay Stone Wood
Plastics
Copper Bronze Iron-Steel
Silicon
What is next?
•Carbon-based Nanoscale Materials
•Biomaterials
•Additive (3D) Printing
Eras of
Media/Communication
One-to-One
Many to Many
Broadcast
What is next?
❑ Internet of Things (IoT)
❑ Intelligent Assistants
One to Many
Social
How will societies navigate S-curve transitions for…?
Education / LearningLife stage to Lifelong; Online to AI-mediated
Healthcare / Wellness Population Health; Outcomes-based Care; Genomics
Agriculture / Farming / FoodPrecision Ag; Automation; Urban; Bio-; Small scale farmer
Transportation/MobilityEVs, AVs, TNCs; Micro-mobility; Empowered Cities
Retail Online; Hybrid Brick+Mortar; Localization
Media / CommunicationAuthentication/Verification; AI; IoT; Agents/Assistants
Entertainment AI; Mixed Reality; Wellness Impact
2007 2017 2027
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
The Three Horizons of Library Experiences
WorksheetEra-based Analysis
Enterprise Version
Vision & Mission - Who you are; Who you serve & how.
Dynamics & Conditions - Dynamics of student (learner) experience- Dynamics of an instructor experience- Dynamics of staff experience - Dynamics of campus life- Dynamics of alumni connections- Describe partnerships - Regulatory / Policy landscape:
Constraints or protective policies?
Programs, Products & Service- What do you provide?- How do you launch new offerings? - How fast or slow do internal/external
demands (expectations) change? - What is considered innovative?
Minor Eras - Were there small but significant
transitions within the library, university or campus experience?
Disruptive Elements- What elements challenge this era,
and lead to changes in the company?- Are there constraints or
‘limits to growth’ within this era?
Current Era:___________________ Emerging Era:___________________
Worksheet: Era-based Analysis of Change
Applying Foresight
❑Work with colleagues in generating PoV on era-based transitions for the next decade of campus experiences
❑Surface three (3) assumptions that might be discarded across the S-curve era transition
❑Identify three (3) hunting groundopportunities for future success or organizational impact
Vision & Mission - Who you are; Who you serve & how.
Dynamics & Conditions - Dynamics of student (learner) experience- Dynamics of an instructor experience- Dynamics of staff experience - Dynamics of campus life- Dynamics of alumni connections- Describe partnerships - Regulatory / Policy landscape:
Constraints or protective policies?
Programs, Products & Service- What do you provide?- How do you launch new offerings? - How fast or slow do internal/external
demands (expectations) change? - What is considered innovative?
Minor Eras - Were there small but significant
transitions within the library, university or campus experience?
Disruptive Elements- What elements challenge this era,
and lead to changes in the company?- Are there constraints or
‘limits to growth’ within this era?
Current Era:___________________ Emerging Era:___________________
Worksheet: Era-based Analysis of Change
Students bring social media (behaviors) to campus
Students bring lifelong experience data
Health Services based wellness services
Health + Wellness integrated into all departments
Stacks to Social Study Spaces
Shift to One Search Database
Librarians help me.. Librarians help me..
Write three (3) assumptions about theemerging era of campus and/or library experiences
The Future is Accepting Trade-offs
23
What excites you about this new era?
What does not excited you?
❑ Visioning & Backcasting ❑ Planning, Goal Setting & Roadmapping❑ Transformation Management
❑ Forecasts(Trend Extrapolation)
❑ Scenarios (Alternative Assumptions)
❑ Horizon Scanning ❑ Emerging Issues Analysis❑ Indicator Analysis
(Leading vs Lagging)
Investigate Imagine Inspire
Fundamental Stages + Activities of Foresight
Wendy Schultz/Garry Golden
Identifying & Monitoring Change
Exploring Implications Communicating the Need for Change
Trends(Continuities)
Choices(Discontinuities)
Events(Discontinuities)
Plausible Future
Possible Futures
Preferred Future
Forecasts
Scenarios
Visions
Foresight 101: Mechanisms of Change
Popularized by Peter Bishop
William Ogburn (1930s)
Social Change (Society + Technology)
Herman Kahn (‘50/60s)RAND / Hudson Institute
Scenario-based Decisions
(’80-Present) Rise of Strategy Industry
Club of Rome / Limits to Growth (70s)
Systems-based Simulations
History and Evolution of Foresight
2010s + Beyond
Era of Integration, Inclusivity & Intervention?
Expanding Leadership Capabilities
Organizations with Futurists or Foresight Practices
Four Futures
29
Four Futures Thinking
Disciplined Constrained
Decline Collapse
Transformed Continued
Growth
?
Popularized by Jim Dator
Disciplined Constrained
Decline Collapse
Transformed Continued
Growth
Leadership Challenge: Write Your Four Futures
Defining InnovationWhat do you do? Outputs? Outcomes?
The ability to generate new and useful ideas
that bring value to your customers and/or organization
Defining Innovation
Creative Mindset
Pluses: What is good about the idea as presented (no changes)?
Potentials: What future benefits might result from this idea? What else could this idea do? “We could…”
Concerns: Phrase as open-ended questions. “How might we…?” “What are all the ways to…?” “How to…?”
Overcome: Brainstorm ideas to overcome your concerns.
The PPCO technique was developed in the early 1980's by Diane Foucar-Szocki, Bill Shepard and Roger Firestien.
PPCO
Slides Removed
Benefits of a PPCO Mindset
1. Keeps the good alive.
2. Steers to practical thinking.
3. Creates a safe environment.
4. Builds teamwork.
5. Saves time.
Embrace Diversity as an Asset
Connect Learning to Impact
Expand Access to Learning
Amplify Research & Creative Activities
Be a Leader for Learning, Working and Playing
Design Culture of Campus Collaboration
Become Financially Resilient
I-Space / Services for 3D Printing
Library Instruction / Smart Classrooms
Digitized & Electronic Materials
Universal Design; Disability Access; Alumni Access (Physical/Virtual)
Increase Study Space
Increase Parking Space (Mobility Solutions)
Physical Library Operational Hours
Draft: University Strategic Priorities for 2030
Be
ach
20
30
–Li
bra
ry T
he
me
s
Draft: University Strategic Priorities for 2030
1. Embrace Diversity as an Asset2. Connect Learning to Impact 3. Expand Access to Learning 4. Amplify Research
& Creative Activities5. Be a Leader for Learning,
Working and Playing 6. Design Culture of
Campus Collaboration 7. Become Financially Resilient
Beach 2030 – Library Themes
1. I-Space / 3D Services2. Library Instruction / Smart
Classroom 3. Digitized & Electronic
Materials4. Universal Design / Access5. Increased Study Space6. Increased Parking Space
(Mobility Solutions) 7. Physical Library Hours
Our Job: Generate Ideas at Intersection of…
Future Role of Place (Space)
Future of Learning
Seeing Bigger Picture…
Changing Role of Place (Space)
Campus Spaces (including Parking!)
Innovation Spaces
Study (Social) Spaces
Third Place is a Real Thing
Pedestrian Friendly Zones
PARK(ing)
“Pop Up” Culture
Places for Connections: Live Experiences, Together
RetailHealthcare
Places to Pause… MindfulnessMeditationSensory EnhancementsSensory Deprivation Play with Dogs
Brain Booth
Hacking PlacesThe Experience is the Destination
Library Teaches Place-based Programming
Escape Rooms Definitely ‘Fad’ Elements(but you can integrate research skills)
Jason Griffey
Place Use-Data…Google Analytics for the libraries and campus buildings
Universal Design Empathy Principles
PRINCIPLE FIVE: Tolerance for ErrorThe design minimizes hazards and the adverse consequences of accidental or unintended actions.
PRINCIPLE SIX: Low Physical EffortThe design can be used efficiently and comfortably and with a minimum of fatigue.
PRINCIPLE SEVEN: Size and Space for Approach and UseAppropriate size and space is provided for approach, reach, manipulation, and use regardless of user’s body size, posture, or mobility.
The 7 Principles of Universal Design:
PRINCIPLE ONE: Equitable UseThe design is useful and marketable to people with diverse abilities.
PRINCIPLE TWO: Flexibility in UseThe design accommodates a wide range of individual preferences and abilities.
PRINCIPLE THREE: Simple and Intuitive UseUse of the design is easy to understand, regardless of the user’s experience, knowledge, language skills, or current concentration level.
PRINCIPLE FOUR: Perceptible InformationThe design communicates necessary information effectively to the user, regardless of ambient conditions or the user’s sensory abilities.
Ronald L. Mace
Center for Universal Design at North Carolina State University
The iCount Initiative: Removing Barriers to Equity
Library Equity Action Plans (LEAPs) Skye Patrick
Places that Do Check-ins, Audits & Self Work
On-Demand(ness)Scheduling Here or Anywhere
Place-based Innovationsvia Computer Vision
Micro Mobility
Mobility + AccessibilitySafety, Equity + Access
Autonomous People Movers Coming Soon!
Deliver to My Place
Place-based Messaging & Personal Safety Staff Trained on Cues
What are themes you see in the changing nature of place?
Generate Ideas to Transform Place/Space-based Library Experiences
Campus Spaces (including Parking!)
Innovation Spaces
Study (Social) Spaces
Brainstorming
Guidelines
⎯ Push for quantity
⎯ Don’t censor
⎯ Build on other ideas
⎯ Seek wild ideas
Generate Ideas to Transform Place/Space-based Library Experiences
Campus Spaces (including Parking!)
Innovation Spaces
Study (Social) Spaces
Ideas to Transform Place/Space-based Experiences
Share with Partner(Synthesize… New Ideas)
Gets You Fired!!(Sorry, too radical for us…)
Framing Ideas to Transform Place-based Experiences
LIK
ELIH
OO
D (
HA
PP
ENS)
POSITIVE IMPACT ON CSULB LIBRARY EXPERIENCE
Low
Hig
h
Low High
Future Role of Place (Space)
Future of Learning (Teaching)
Future of Learning (Teaching)
Digitized & Electronic Materials
Library Instruction (Smart Classrooms)
Expanding Information Literacies
Expanding Information Literacies
Digitized & Electronic Materials
71
Cornell University defines digital literacy as “the ability to find, evaluate, utilize, share, and create content using information technologies and the Internet.”
How might this definition change? (Be challenged)
Evolution of New (Data and Digital) Literacies
American Artist’s Faraday Study is a small room library visitors can use to read, study, and plan, absent of any cell service or WiFi signal.
Annabel Daou
Campus Elevation of Issues on AI, Ethics, Algo Bias
Expanding Information Literacies
Is Privacy Dead? Or Being Defined Around Agency?
Digitized & Electronic Materials
vs Print for Comprehension
Start 3:25
Let’s not Forget Reading Literacy & the Prepared Mind
Start Stop Continue
How might we rethink digitization to digital literacies, and role of print in age of digital mind?
Future of Learning
Digitized & Electronic Materials
Library Instruction (Smart Classrooms)
Expanding Information Literacies
Generating New Ideas (Criteria) for Library Instruction
1. Not Something You Have Done Before
2. Have Serious WOW Factor
3. Transform Library Instruction in a positive way
78
Library Instruction (Smart Classrooms)
Foresight 101Era-based Change
Generating Ideas Scanning for Signals
Wrap upNext Steps
Signal Slides Removed
Foresight 101Era-based Change
Generating Ideas Scanning for Signals
Wrap upNext Steps
Launch Conversation on Who do we want to be…?
“I” Shaped PersonSuccess via Specialization
“T” Shaped PersonSuccess via Integration
What do we want to be as T-Shaped Individuals?
“T” ShapedProfessional Community
Also Trained in ….?
Psychology Data Science Crypto / Blockchain Restorative Practice3D Design & Manufacturing _________________________________
Ethics Behavior Science Cyber Security Aging Systems ThinkingExperience Design Service Design
Write three T-Shaped skill sets and/or mindsets
The Most Ah-Ha Idea of the Day…
Re
adin
ess
Urgency Not Urgent Urgent –
Critical
Not Ready
Ready
SomewhatReady
Important
Re
adin
ess
Urgency
Not Urgent Urgent –Critical
Not Ready
Ready
SomewhatReady
Important
Take a Pulse Check on Emerging Trends vs Organizational Appetite
Theme #1
Theme #2
Theme #3
Theme #4
Top Trends/Themes1)2)3) 4) 5)
Balancing Your Ideas Portfolio
1. Write Business as Usual and Breakthrough at either end of the spectrum
2. Consider each idea and place itsomewhere along the line
Business As Usual
Breakthrough
1243 56 7
8 910 11
121314
15
Next Steps
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