The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta hatchling ......Caretta caretta hatchling output...

The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta

hatchling output

Natalie Montero, Mariana M.P.B. Fuentes

nm12e@my.fsu.edu

Thank you to all involved!

This project was funded by the Sea Turtle License Plate Grants Program (17-015R) and the Winchester Fund at FSU.

Permits: • #TP-16-239• ACUC #1534• DRP-046

Influences of climate on sea turtles

• Successful incubation at a narrow thermal range

• Precipitation, humidity, SST• Different tolerances • Sex ratio • Hatchling viability and population

stability

Proposal vs. Reality

• What was proposed:• Determine relationship between local climate, hatchling output, and

incubating environment via existing and new weather stations, iButtontemperature loggers, nest location on the beach, and sand samples.

• Identify most significant climate variable(s)

• What was the result:• Coyotes (62%) and storms (25%) at one study site in 2017• Use historical climate and nest data at both study sites to identify the most

significant climate variable(s) and/or combination of variables

Objectives

• Determine how local climate influences hatchling output for the NGM loggerhead Recovery Unit

• Project how predicted changes in climate will influence future hatchling output

Hatchling Output

Hatching Success: number of hatched eggs and

number of unhatched eggs

Emergence Rate: number of hatchlings that emerged

and number of hatchlings left in nest

Study Sites

St. Joseph Peninsula (SJP) and St. George Island (SGI) State Parks, Florida

Nest Data

• Florida Fish & Wildlife Research Institute oSGI = 138 (2013 – 2017)oSJP = 209 (2013 – 2016) oTotal = 347

Climate DataClimate Variable SGI source SJP sourceAir Temperature (℃)

SGI State Park Weather StationApalachicola Municipal Airport

Accumulated Precipitation (mm)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Humidity (%) Apalachicola Municipal Airport

Sea Surface Temperature (℃)

MERRA – 2 MERRA – 2

Projection Data

• KNMI Climate Explorer

• CMIP5 RCP 8.5 & RCP 4.5

Analysis• Generalized Linear Mixed – Effects Models (lme4)• Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc)

MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY2 Months Prior

Nest Month + 2 Months PriorNest Month + 1 Month Prior

Nest MonthIncubation Duration

Hatch Month

Average Hatchling Output

• SJP: (209 nests)• Hatching success: 87.3%• Emergence rate: 84.9%

• SGI: (126 nests)• Hatching success: 80.8%• Emergence rate: 76.6%

Effects of Climate at SJP

Emer

genc

e R

ate

Humidity during Incubation (%)

Hat

chin

g Su

cces

s

Air Temperature during Incubation

(℃)

Accumulated Rain during Nest Month

(mm)

Effects of Climate at SGI

Air Temperature during Incubation

(℃)

Accumulated Rain during Nest Month

(mm)Humidity during Incubation (%)

Emer

genc

e R

ate

Hat

chin

g Su

cces

s

Climate Projections at SJP

Climate Projections at SGI

Hatching Success Projections

SJP

SGI

Other Factors

• Beach erosion• Sea level rise• More severe and frequent storms• What are turtles’ thresholds?• Changes in sea turtle response• Temperate beaches

Questions?nm12e@my.fsu.edu