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The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta
hatchling output
Natalie Montero, Mariana M.P.B. Fuentes
Thank you to all involved!
This project was funded by the Sea Turtle License Plate Grants Program (17-015R) and the Winchester Fund at FSU.
Permits: • #TP-16-239• ACUC #1534• DRP-046
Influences of climate on sea turtles
• Successful incubation at a narrow thermal range
• Precipitation, humidity, SST• Different tolerances • Sex ratio • Hatchling viability and population
stability
Proposal vs. Reality
• What was proposed:• Determine relationship between local climate, hatchling output, and
incubating environment via existing and new weather stations, iButtontemperature loggers, nest location on the beach, and sand samples.
• Identify most significant climate variable(s)
• What was the result:• Coyotes (62%) and storms (25%) at one study site in 2017• Use historical climate and nest data at both study sites to identify the most
significant climate variable(s) and/or combination of variables
Objectives
• Determine how local climate influences hatchling output for the NGM loggerhead Recovery Unit
• Project how predicted changes in climate will influence future hatchling output
Hatchling Output
Hatching Success: number of hatched eggs and
number of unhatched eggs
Emergence Rate: number of hatchlings that emerged
and number of hatchlings left in nest
Study Sites
St. Joseph Peninsula (SJP) and St. George Island (SGI) State Parks, Florida
Nest Data
• Florida Fish & Wildlife Research Institute oSGI = 138 (2013 – 2017)oSJP = 209 (2013 – 2016) oTotal = 347
Climate DataClimate Variable SGI source SJP sourceAir Temperature (℃)
SGI State Park Weather StationApalachicola Municipal Airport
Accumulated Precipitation (mm)
Wind Speed (m/s)
Humidity (%) Apalachicola Municipal Airport
Sea Surface Temperature (℃)
MERRA – 2 MERRA – 2
Projection Data
• KNMI Climate Explorer
• CMIP5 RCP 8.5 & RCP 4.5
Analysis• Generalized Linear Mixed – Effects Models (lme4)• Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc)
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY2 Months Prior
Nest Month + 2 Months PriorNest Month + 1 Month Prior
Nest MonthIncubation Duration
Hatch Month
Average Hatchling Output
• SJP: (209 nests)• Hatching success: 87.3%• Emergence rate: 84.9%
• SGI: (126 nests)• Hatching success: 80.8%• Emergence rate: 76.6%
Effects of Climate at SJP
Emer
genc
e R
ate
Humidity during Incubation (%)
Hat
chin
g Su
cces
s
Air Temperature during Incubation
(℃)
Accumulated Rain during Nest Month
(mm)
Effects of Climate at SGI
Air Temperature during Incubation
(℃)
Accumulated Rain during Nest Month
(mm)Humidity during Incubation (%)
Emer
genc
e R
ate
Hat
chin
g Su
cces
s
Climate Projections at SJP
Climate Projections at SGI
Hatching Success Projections
SJP
SGI
Other Factors
• Beach erosion• Sea level rise• More severe and frequent storms• What are turtles’ thresholds?• Changes in sea turtle response• Temperate beaches