The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population Eric Miller emiller@h4x.ca Presented Nov 1,...
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- Slide 1
- The Ecological Economics of Canadas Ageing Population Eric
Miller emiller@h4x.ca Presented Nov 1, 2013 at York University
Canadian Society for Ecological Economics Conference
- Slide 2
- A Conceptual Ecological Economic Demographic Model (Inspired by
NEF, 2012)
- Slide 3
- An Empirical Model for Canada
- Slide 4
- Current patterns as model inputs (StatCan, 2012) Lifetime
Fertility Rate = 1.678 Total emigrants = 52,409Total immigrants =
258,290 Average Life Expectancy at birth: M = 78.6yrs, F =
82.7yrs
- Slide 5
- Possible futures as assumptions (StatCan, 2010) Population
Scenario Lifetime FertilityImmigration Rate Gain in Average Life
Expectancy at Birth 1: Low growthFalls to 1.5Lower (0.6% / yr)
Slower than historic trends (15 years slower) 2. Medium growthStays
at 1.7Current (0.8% / yr) Historic trends (+7M, +5.7F by 2043) 3:
High growthRises to 1.9Higher (0.9% / yr) Faster than historic
trends (7 years earlier) 4: StabilizationStays at 1.7 Equals
migration (0.15%) Historic trends
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- Results of Canadian demographic scenarios Scenarios: 1=Low,
2=Med, 3=High, 4=Stabilization
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- The Hypothesis of Apocalyptic Demography Today, there are 4.2
working-aged Canadians for every senior citizen, making
contributions to cover retirees' pensions and health care. By 2031,
that ratio will be cut in half. The tax base will shrink, growth
will slow and labour shortages will become even more dire...
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- Demographic (age-based) dependency Medium growth scenario
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- Labour market dependency Medium growth scenario
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- What about unpaid work?
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- Effects of population growth on dependency Growth scenarios: 1
= Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = High
Stabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same
with delayed retirement __154=Value in
1971___________________________________________ __89=Value in
1971____________________________________________
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- Understanding the dynamics of Canadian housing Demographics
Household formation & dissolution Macro-economics Rates of
change in household formation Affluence Demand for number of
dwellings, and value Financial system Cost of financing, risk
tolerance of lenders Expectations of capital gains Willingness to
inflate prices Cohort norms Value of strategic locations Results
impact the stock of residential dwellings and market value their
land
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- An empirical Canadian housing model
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- Dynamics of residential land value 1=Actual total Res Capital
Stock 2=Actual Res structures 3=Actual Res land Modelled values:
4=Predicted Res structures 5=Predicted Res land $M CAD
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- Dynamics of investment in residential structures 1=Actual rate
of gross investment in Res Capital Stock 2=Modelled rate (of #1)
3=Modelled rate of invest from renovations to existing structures;
4=Other 5=Modelled rate of investment from new structures Annual
Rate
- Slide 16
- Speculating about future housing dynamics Growth scenarios: 1 =
Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = High
Stabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same
with delayed retirement (all scenarios assume 2010 patterns of
household headship rates)
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- Concluding messages Demographics should play an important role
in EE Beware of apocalyptic demography in Canada as a new rationale
for austerity and growth for the sake of growth Systems dynamics
modelling useful for modelling residential housing market
(structures and land value) Understanding housing will help to
understand an important component of life satisfaction during
working years and into retirement, and the future ecological
implications of growth in households, dwellings per household, and
value per dwelling
- Slide 18
- References cited Globe and Mail. 2012. The great expansion.
Saturday May 4. Section F. New Economics Foundation. 2012. Happy
Planet Index: 2012 Report. A global index of sustainable
well-being. All other Statistics Canada data is from CANSIM