The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population Eric Miller [email protected] Presented Nov 1,...
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The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population Eric Miller [email protected] Presented Nov 1, 2013 at York University Canadian Society for Ecological
The Ecological Economics of Canadas Ageing Population Eric
Miller [email protected] Presented Nov 1, 2013 at York University
Canadian Society for Ecological Economics Conference
Slide 2
A Conceptual Ecological Economic Demographic Model (Inspired by
NEF, 2012)
Slide 3
An Empirical Model for Canada
Slide 4
Current patterns as model inputs (StatCan, 2012) Lifetime
Fertility Rate = 1.678 Total emigrants = 52,409Total immigrants =
258,290 Average Life Expectancy at birth: M = 78.6yrs, F =
82.7yrs
Slide 5
Possible futures as assumptions (StatCan, 2010) Population
Scenario Lifetime FertilityImmigration Rate Gain in Average Life
Expectancy at Birth 1: Low growthFalls to 1.5Lower (0.6% / yr)
Slower than historic trends (15 years slower) 2. Medium growthStays
at 1.7Current (0.8% / yr) Historic trends (+7M, +5.7F by 2043) 3:
High growthRises to 1.9Higher (0.9% / yr) Faster than historic
trends (7 years earlier) 4: StabilizationStays at 1.7 Equals
migration (0.15%) Historic trends
Slide 6
Results of Canadian demographic scenarios Scenarios: 1=Low,
2=Med, 3=High, 4=Stabilization
Slide 7
The Hypothesis of Apocalyptic Demography Today, there are 4.2
working-aged Canadians for every senior citizen, making
contributions to cover retirees' pensions and health care. By 2031,
that ratio will be cut in half. The tax base will shrink, growth
will slow and labour shortages will become even more dire...
Slide 8
Demographic (age-based) dependency Medium growth scenario
Slide 9
Labour market dependency Medium growth scenario
Slide 10
What about unpaid work?
Slide 11
Effects of population growth on dependency Growth scenarios: 1
= Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = High
Stabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same
with delayed retirement __154=Value in
1971___________________________________________ __89=Value in
1971____________________________________________
Slide 12
Understanding the dynamics of Canadian housing Demographics
Household formation & dissolution Macro-economics Rates of
change in household formation Affluence Demand for number of
dwellings, and value Financial system Cost of financing, risk
tolerance of lenders Expectations of capital gains Willingness to
inflate prices Cohort norms Value of strategic locations Results
impact the stock of residential dwellings and market value their
land
Slide 13
An empirical Canadian housing model
Slide 14
Dynamics of residential land value 1=Actual total Res Capital
Stock 2=Actual Res structures 3=Actual Res land Modelled values:
4=Predicted Res structures 5=Predicted Res land $M CAD
Slide 15
Dynamics of investment in residential structures 1=Actual rate
of gross investment in Res Capital Stock 2=Modelled rate (of #1)
3=Modelled rate of invest from renovations to existing structures;
4=Other 5=Modelled rate of investment from new structures Annual
Rate
Slide 16
Speculating about future housing dynamics Growth scenarios: 1 =
Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = High
Stabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same
with delayed retirement (all scenarios assume 2010 patterns of
household headship rates)
Slide 17
Concluding messages Demographics should play an important role
in EE Beware of apocalyptic demography in Canada as a new rationale
for austerity and growth for the sake of growth Systems dynamics
modelling useful for modelling residential housing market
(structures and land value) Understanding housing will help to
understand an important component of life satisfaction during
working years and into retirement, and the future ecological
implications of growth in households, dwellings per household, and
value per dwelling
Slide 18
References cited Globe and Mail. 2012. The great expansion.
Saturday May 4. Section F. New Economics Foundation. 2012. Happy
Planet Index: 2012 Report. A global index of sustainable
well-being. All other Statistics Canada data is from CANSIM