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8/8/2019 Sussex Group Renewable Energy Matters Campaign Outline 18 October 20101
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Renewable
Energy
MattersCampaignOutline
PRIVILEGEDANDCONFIDENTIAL
18October2010
8/8/2019 Sussex Group Renewable Energy Matters Campaign Outline 18 October 20101
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
Overview
Anumberofrenewableenergydevelopershavecometogethertoformalosecoalitionofinterests,to
promoterenewable
energy
policy
in
Ontario
and
support
the
agenda
set
as
part
of
the
Green
Energy
and
EconomyActandtheFeedinTariffprogram.
Thiscoalitionwillbejoinedbyothergroups,suchasEnvironmentalDefenceandtheGEAAlliance,aswellas
labour,economicdevelopment,healthandenvironmentalstakeholders,todevelopcommonmessaging,
communicationstools(ie.paidandearnedmedia)andtargetedlocalcampaignsinareaswhereoppositionto
renewablepowerexists.
Thegoalofthiseffortwillbetwofold:
1. HelpsupportanexpeditedreleaseofFITcontracts,includingthoseassociatedwithnewBruce
Miltontransmission
capacity;
and
2. SupportthebroadergovernmentplanforsustainedcontractingforwindandsolarthroughtheFIT
Program,aspartoftheSupplyMixDirectiveandLongTermEnergyPlan.
As
renewable
energy
is
also
anticipated
to
be
a
wedge
issue
in
the
election,
with
the
PCs
supporting
a
move
awayfromrenewables,thiseffortshouldconsolidateindustryandnonindustrystakeholdersinrallying
supportforacontinuedfocusongreenpowerasimportanteconomic,social,andenergypolicyinOntario.
Inthis,itwillbecriticaltoconfuse theissueinthepolitical/public/mediaawayfromjustpriceto include
keyvalueattributessuchasjobs,cleanair,farmincome,etc. Renewablescannotbedefinedbyprice
alone.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
PoliticalandPolicyVolatility
Volatility
has
arises
vis
a
vis
the
amount
of
new
renewables
that
will
come
online;
intermittency
issues;
howdemandmaychange;thepaceofnewTxdevelopment; growinghealth/noiseconcerns(oppositionis
diversifying);andtheoverarchingsupportforrenewableenergygenerationintheleaduptotheOctober
2011provincialelection.
Pricesforcontractedpowerareskyrocketing eventhoughHOEPhasdecreased,GlobalAdjustmenthas
risenexponentially.
Consumersperceptionsthathydrocostsaregoingupduetorenewables
Lackofconsiderableeconomicinvestment(jobs)toyetcomeonline(lotsofannouncementstodate
butfewhaveactuallybeenrealizedyet)
CombinedwithmovetoTOUpricing,thepoliticalvolatilityof2003couldrepeatitself
Governmentlikelytryingtofindabalancebetween:
1. Movingforward
on
the
GEA
agenda,
linked
to
new
jobs
and
coal
fired
closure;
and
2. Succumbingtoconsumerconcernsaroundcosts
LTEPandSupplyMixDirectivewillbeinsightfulonthedirectiongovernmentwilltakeoverthenext12
months,and
positioning
for
the
Opposition.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
WhySomethingNeedstobeDone
Sussex
believes
that
most
likely
outcome
of
the
LTEP
may
be
price
digression
and
supply
ceilingscould(eitherthroughcurtailmentorbycappingthetotalMWsof supply).
ThereisalsotheriskofrestrainedmovementoncontractingFIT applications,bothutilityscale
andsmallerCAEprojects
ThiscouldalsobemanifestedinreducedsupportforTxdevelopment
ReluctancetoaddressloadingissueonTSsforCAEprojects
TAT/DAT
and
ECT
delays
more
than
bottlenecking
the
program;
causing
significant
confidence
issuesinlongtermviabilityofcontracting
SituationexacerbatedbythelackofalignmentbetweenREArequirementsandFITcontract
milestones;slowness andbarrierstoregulatoryapprovalsvisvisMOE,MNR,MTCR,etc.
Perceptionthattheprorenewablessector(industry,ENGOs,etc.)havebeentooquietandneed
tobemobilized.
Thisneedstobeaddressedimmediately.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
WhatHappensNext
LongTermEnergyPlanandSupplyMixDirective
SupplyMixDirectiveandsummaryofLTEPcouldbereleasedasearlyasOctober20th will
commence45daypostingontheEBR althoughthiscouldbepushedtoNovember.
December8th notionaldateforLTEPCabinetapproval
Posting/releaseoftheLTEPbeforetheendoftheyear.
AssumedthatTAT/DATiscurrentlyorwillsoonbeconducted
Postingof
pre
June
4
th
rankingsand
opportunity
to
change
connection
points
Unclearastowhethertherewillbeanyreleaseofnewcontracts atthispoint
ECTtocommenceinlate2010/early2011
BruceMiltonallocationassumedwillbeplaced intheECT;possibletreatmentthrough
IPAprocess
UnclearonnewTxpriorities
Provincemay
or
may
not
move
forward
on
an
expedited
basis.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
GRandPRCampaign
Thereneedstobeafoundationalbase onmessagingandapproachthatsupportsthe
governmenton
coal
fired
replacement
by
outline
the
jobs/investment,
farm
income,
environmentalandhumanhealthbenefitsofrenewables.
Inventorypotentialeconomic/investment/jobsbenefits. Inotherwords,ifwehave1000MW
ofnewwind/solarcontractscomingout,XXmanufacturingfacilitieswillbebuilt,,employing
XX
direct
and
indirect
jobs,
with
XX
person
years
involved
in
the
generation
projects
themselves.
Aggregatednumbersforfarmincomecanalsobeusefulandshould besecuredaspartasbase
messaging.
Governmentalso
has
astrategic
interest
in
where
manufacturing
We
also
need
to
identify
wherethesefacilitiesaregoingtogo(ie.HuronBruce).
ThereareopportunitiestoleverageGEAAlliancemembers,labour,etc.topursuetraditional
andsocialmediachannelstopromoterenewables.
Needto
lead
with
the
economic
and
investment/jobs
benefits
associated
with
renewables.
Thereneedstobearainbowcoalitionofvalidatorsandmessengers.
Thisshouldaugmentexistingindustryefforts,whichareimportantandwellreceived.
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Strategic/Tactical/LogisticalConsiderations
1. Coremessaging Framingaroundjobs/investment,farm
income,andenvironment/humanhealth. Researchneedsto
supportthis,andshouldbecoordinatedwithMEIandOPA.
2. Tactical coalitionbuilding/outreachandallofthesocial
media,adbuy,earnedmedia,etcyoumentioned. Identifythe
bestchannels
to
have
the
greatest
impact.
3. Logistical thisisallabouttiming. Stagingandscopingto
supportagovernmental
agenda
that
addresses
overarching
objectives.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
1. CoreMessaging
Existingpolling
shows
that
jobs
and
investment
are
much
more
important
drivers
than
health/environment. Also,shiftingattitudesinthelinkbetweenpriceescalationand
renewables.
Needtofindthesweetspot wherecleanerenergy,greenjobsandhumanhealthconverge.
Peoplethinkthereisalinkbetweenjobsandgreenenergy,andsupportlevelsforsustainability
arehigh.
Its
also
encouraging
that
people
associate
investment,
period,
with
higher
costs
insteadofthinkinggreenenergyismoreexpensivethanothertypes.
ProspectiveMessaging
Leadwithastronglinkbetweencleanenergyandjobs.
Use
environmental
and
health
benefits
of
clean
energy
as
secondary
messages. Dontbedefensive. Stresspositivesweknowpeopleagreewith.
Linkinvestmentwithcost,allowingabroadeningtoincludeotherkindsofenergy,ratherthan
allowingthecosttobelinkedtorenewables.
Bewaryofmakingpricechartsalongthelinesoftheoilindustryprominent(whilehelpfulfor
governmentaudiences,havetobeverycautiousofhowinformationiscommunicatedtothe
public). Peoplethinkpricesaregoingupbyalot. Renewablesmaybeasmallslice,butpeopleimagine
thetotalpietobebig.
Furtherresearchisalsorequiredpostspikeinbillfury,includingfocusgroupstocolour,wording
andemotiontocrafteffective,targetedmessages.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
2. Tactical
Inordertotalkpastthenoisyactivists andeditorialpositions,thereneedstobeacoordinated
paid,earnedandsocialmediacampaign. Thisshouldbebothreactiveandproactive.
Whilethismayhavestartedoutasanenvironmentalcommunicationsframe;itnolongersurvive
inthatframealone.
Industry
and
the
GEA
Alliance
are
important
messengers
and
motivators
to
their
base
and
one
shouldalwaysstartwithitsbase,butitwontbeenough. IndustryandtheAlliancemustcome
togethertogrownthecoalition,amongstnotonlydevelopersand manufacturers,butalsoother
thirdpartyvalidators:
Unions
Economists Healthcareprofessionals
Electricitysystemexperts
Securityexperts(reliability,stability)
Farmers
First
Nations Industrygroups(includingindirectgroups,suchasChambersofCommerce,retailerswho
benefitfromfarmrenewablesincome,etc.)
andofcourseNGOs
OtherinstitutionsliketheIEA,otherjurisdictions,etc.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
4. Logistical
IftheSupplyMixDirectiveandLTEPcouldbereleasedimminently,sotomustthiseffort.
Acalendar/workplanneedstobecreatedtoalignindustryneeds/announcementswithgovernment
milestones/announcements. Industryandvalidators(GEAAlliance)candesignearnedmediaeventstomagnifythese
announcements,andfillingapstoensureprolongedexposureofmessage.
WeekOne
Solicitandsecureadditionalinformationfromindustryonjobs, investment,timelines,etc.
Securecampaign
coordination
and
define
roles
and
responsibilities
Organizekeystakeholdercontactsforregularcommunicationandrapidresponse
Continuesolicitationofnewpartners
Developpreliminarycoremessagingandidentifyopportunitiesforearnedandpaidmedia
Startconversationwithmediabuyerandcreativeagencyonproduction
Week
Two Organizetwiceweeklycallswithkeystakeholdersonissuesneedingmanagementandcanvassforupcoming
opportunities
FinalizescriptsandFAWs
Preliminarybudgetmediabuys
WeekThree
Continueto
forge
relationships
with
stakeholders,
expanding
the universe
of
messengers
delivering
key
points
Produceads
Workwithpartnersonsocialmediastrategy
Focusoncommsproductsandregularizingcommunicationwithstakeholders
Finalizesocialmediastrategyandagreeonbudget
Continuemediamonitoringandrapidresponse
Pursue
earned
media
opportunities/speakers
bureau Assemblecalendarofupcomingannouncementactivitiestoamplify positivestories
8/8/2019 Sussex Group Renewable Energy Matters Campaign Outline 18 October 20101
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
Budget
Goalis
to
have
$300,000
in
hand
through
contributions
from
developers
and
manufacturers
to
seed
thecampaign(willsupporteffortsthroughtoQ12011)
Estimatedcosts:
Campaigncoordination $12,000/mth
Research(six
groups,
three
men,
three
women)
@
$7,500
each
$45,000
Advertisingdesign(printandonline,contracted) $25,000
Advertisingproductionandtalent(radio) $10,000Toronto
advertisingintheimmediatevicinityofQueensPark,usingbus $50,000
stands,benches,subwaystationsetc.
November January(andbeyond)paidadvertisingintargetedcommunities $100,000
Website $20,000
Onlinestrategydevelopmentanddelivery $7,000
Onlinemediamonitoring(Facebookposts,Twitter,etc.) $1,200/mth
Othercosts TBD
Additional
costs
to
continue
efforts
in
early
2011
through
to
the
October
6
th
election
Eachdeveloperaskedforafinancialcontributionof$15,000$30,000tosupportthiseffort.
Sussextoserveascentralcoordinatorforthiseffort,ensuring transparencyandaccountabilityof
effort. Anonymouscontributionstocampaignpossible.
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
NextSteps
WeekofOctober18th gaincommitmentfromleadingdevelopersand
manufacturers
Obtaininformation(aggregatedandnotforattributiontoanyonecommercial
entity)on
total
jobs,
investment
activities
planned
(confirmed
and
aspirational,
dependingoncontracts)overthenext1224months(withtimelines),aswellas
farmincome
Broadenlistofstakeholdersparticipatinginthisprogram
Finalizecostimpactinformation(seeappendixslide)
CoordinateeffortswithCanWEA,CanSIA,andAPPrO,asappropriate
Arrangeweekly
calls
to
coalition
members
to
brief
on
progress
Arrangedailyemailstoupdateonprogramdevelopment,asappropriate
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55UniversityAvenue
Suite600
Toronto,Ontario
(416)9616611
www.sussexstrategy.com
440LaurierAvenueWest
Suite200
Ottawa,Ontario
(613)7822320
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
PreliminaryRenewablesPriceImpactAnalysis
In2012thetotalprojectedRPP+GApricetoresidentialratepayersisanticipatedtobeapproximately
$122/MWh,upfromabout$90/MWhin2009.For2012,thetotalrenewablesshare(notcountingOPG
hydro)isprojectedtobeabout7%to8%ofthetotalbill(wind
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