Summary Statements. The problem... Progress data included –5 progress categories –For each of 3...

SummaryStatements

The problem . . .

• Progress data included– 5 progress categories – For each of 3 outcomes– Total of 15 numbers reported each year

• Too many interrelated targets to make sense of

• OSEP asked for a recommendation2

Thinking through the summary statements

• ECO presented options to states and ECO work groups via conference calls

• Two sessions at December, 2008 EC Conference

• Posted on the ECO web site for comments

• ECO made recommendation to OSEP

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Final Deliberation

• OSEP put the summary statements out for public comment

• Comments came in that were thoughtful, but not necessarily consistent with one another

• Advantages and disadvantages to all options

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• Paper documenting the process on the ECO website

• Setting Targets for Child Outcomes

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The Summary Statements

• Of those children who entered the program below age expectations in each Outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they exited the program.

• The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each Outcome by the time they exited the program.

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Example of State Progress Data for 2008-2009

Positive social-emotional skills (including social relationships):

Number of

children

% of children

a. Percent of infants and toddlers who did not improve functioning

40 4

b. Percent of infants and toddlers who improved functioning but not sufficient to move nearer to functioning comparable to same-aged peers

150 15

c. Percent of infants and toddlers who improved functioning to a level nearer to same-aged peers but did not reach

270 27

d. Percent of infants and toddlers who improved functioning to reach a level comparable to same-aged peers

300 30

e. Percent of infants and toddlers who maintained functioning at a level comparable to same-aged peers

240 24

Total N=1000 100%

Summary Statement Data

• Required Summary Statement 1:

Of those children who entered the program below age expectations in each Outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they exited the program= 75%

• Required Summary Statement 2:

The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each Outcome by the time they exited the program= 54%

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Where do the #s come from?

• Measurement for Summary Statement 1:

Percent = # of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (c) plus # of infants and toddlers reported in category (d) divided by [# of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (a) plus # of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (b) plus # of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (c) plus # of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (d)] times 100.

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Where do the #s come from?

10

Prog cat

# %

a 40 4b 150 15c 270 27d 300 30e 240 24

760 (a, b, c, and d) or 76% of the children entered the program functioning below age expectations

240 (e) or 24% of the children entered and exited functioning at age expectations

Where do the #s come from?

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Prog cat

# %

a 40 4

b 150 15

c 270 27d 300 30e 240 24

570 (c and d) of the 760 (a, b, c, and d) changed their growth trajectories (made greater than expected progress)

270 +300= 570 760

= 75%

Where do the #s come from?

12Summary Statements Calculator -April 14, 2009

Where do the #s come from?

• Measurement for Summary Statement 2: Percent = # of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (d) plus [# of infants and toddlers reported in progress category (e) divided by the total # of infants and toddlers reported in progress categories (a) + (b) + (c) + (d) + (e)] times 100.

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Where do the #s come from?

14

Prog cat

# %

a 40 4

b 150 15

c 270 27

d 300 30e 240 24

300+240= 540 1000

= 54%

30% of the children reached age expectations by exit and 24% of the children entered and exited at age expectations

So remind me again what this means

What can we say about the children’s progress?

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What can we say?

• Part C Outcome 1: successful social relationships with peers and adults, following rules for social interactions

• 96% of children participating in Part C made progress in their social relationships while they were enrolled.

• The 4% of children who did not make progress included children with the most severe disabilities and/or degenerative conditions. Can you describe them?

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• 24% of the children participating in Part C were functioning at age expectations at entry and at exit in this outcome area. Can you describe them?

• 54% of the children were functioning at age expectations in this outcome area when they exited the program. (summary statement 2)– 30% started out behind and caught up– 24% entered and exited at age expectations

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• 75% of the children who entered the program below age expectations made greater than expected gains, made substantial increases in their rates of growth. i.e. changed their growth trajectories (summary statement 1)

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What other data might you want to share?

• The public likes to see scores going up!

• Increase in mean scores from entry to exit– e.g. 4.3 to 5.6 on the COSF– Increase in raw scores– Increase in scale scores

• What else?19

Setting Targets

What we’ll cover today

• Two strategies for examining data – Data quality– Potential for program improvement

• Parameters, guidance for target settings from OSEP

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Can you trust the data?

• Begin by identifying outliers

• Examples: look at the percentages reported for certain categories across local programs

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Percentages reported in category “a” across 30 local programs

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Remove the outliers

• State percentage for “a” with all data= 3.9%

• Revised percentage for “a” with outliers removed= 2.4%

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Percentages reported in category “e” across 30 local programs

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Remove the outliers

• State percentage for “e” with all data= 32.1%

• Revised percentage for “e” with outliers removed= 27.7%

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Example of data with outliers removed

Progress Category

Original % Clean %

a 4 2b 15 17c 27 30d 30 31e 24 20

Sum St 1 75 76Sum St 2 54 51

Clean data (without the outliers) may be a more accurate picture of where you are starting

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Suggested strategy

• Analyze your data with your local LEA/program outliers included and excluded so you can gauge the impact they are having on your state level data.

Note Note Note

• Consider clean data when deciding about reasonable targets, BUT

• Turn in the original data to OSEP in the SPP report!

• You can discuss the clean data in the rationale for your targets.

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Which local programs can be targeted for program improvement?

• Compare the summary statement data by local program to identify which programs have the most potential for improvement.

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Summary Statement Percentages by Local Program

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Considerations

• What do you know about the programs/LEAs with the least and the most progress in the summary statements? i.e. the programs w/– the lowest and highest percentages of children

at age expectation at exit– the lowest and highest percentage of children

making greater than expected gains32

Examples of Key Questions

• Are the children similar at entry?

• Are the higher performing programs/LEAs participating in special projects? e.g. a state initiative, TACSEI or CELL?

• Are there systems issues in lower performing programs/LEAs that would explain differences in outcomes? e.g. personnel shortages 33

Bottom-line Question

• Could either system or practice focused improvement activities targeted toward the lowest performing programs/LEAs improve the child outcomes?

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The Math of Target Setting

• How much would the data change if the lowest local programs moved toward the mean?

• Improvements in the lowest programs will result in improvement in your statewide data

• Experiment with your data to determine what targets are reasonable in your state 35