State of the U.S. Workforce Focus on Numeracy Skills “…the skill level of the American labor...

State of the U.S. WorkforceFocus on Numeracy Skills

“…the skill level of the American labor force is not merely slipping in comparison to that of its peers

around the world, it has fallen dangerously behind.”--Eduardo Porter,

Stubborn Skills Gap in America’s Workforce, New York Times October 8, 2013

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Employment Status of Low-skilled Adults in the U.S.

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24% of U.S. adults working full time scored at level 1 or below in numeracy. Another 33% scored no higher than level 2, for a total of 57% of fulltime workers with low skills in numeracy. For those who are unemployed or working part-time the percentage with low skills is even higher.

All (100%) Employed full-time

(52%)

Employed part-time

(12%)

Unemployed (8%)

In school (10%)

Retired (4%) Permanently disabled

(5%)

Looking after family (6%)

Other (3%)0

10

20

30

40

50

Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2

Perc

enta

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f sub

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n

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Why does the skill level of our workforce matter?

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 200935.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

Routine manualNon-routine manualRoutine cognitiveNon-routine analyticNon-routine interpersonal

Source: Autor, D. H. and B.M. Price (2013), "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)", MIT Mimeograph, June.

Mea

n ta

sk in

put i

n pe

rcen

tiles

of 1

960

dist

ribu

tion

Since 1970, there has been a shift in the U.S. economy away from routine and manual tasks and toward more analytic and interpersonal tasks in occupations.

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Percentage Change in Earnings Since 1961

Tabulations of annual March Current Population Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.

Tabulations of annual March Current Population Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University. Slide prepared by ETS.

The percentage change in earnings since the 1970s mirrors the change in occupations.

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Skilled

Semi-skilled white-collar

Semi-skilled blue-collar

Unskilled

Skilled

Semi-skilled white-collar

Semi-skilled blue-collar

Unskilled

Uni

ted

Stat

esIn

tern

ation

al a

vera

ge

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

3

10

11

22

0.995042351308856

3.45692848753332

6.08433165677994

11.989497295083

11

23

26

31

6.15903280052855

14.8603241802875

17.5907013796407

23.7967462532341

30

39

40

31

25.7879433586007

38.3683062497078

38.6936826891308

36.7859297147837

40

23

20

14

44.3360850129753

34.5689540487436

30.7523049768069

22.865868133441

17

5

4

2

22.7218964765866

8.74548703372781

6.87897929764166

4.56195860345799

Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

In addition to these broad economic changes, a greater percentage of U.S. workers in semiskilled and unskilled occupations are low performers in numeracy, compared with similar workers across participating countries.

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Where are U.S. adults with low skills in numeracy working?

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The highest percentage of workers with low skills in numeracy are in manual and semi-skilled occupations..

Elementary occupations

(8%)

Machine operators

(6%)

Crafts and trades

workers (9%)

Service workers/

sales (21%)

Clerks (8%) Technicians and asso-

ciates (16%)

Legislators, officials, and

managers (10%)

Professionals (21%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2

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U.S. industries with the highest percentage of workers with low skills in numeracy include: construction, administrative, transportation, hospitality/food service, and retail. Manufacturing is not far behind.

Constructi

on (7%)

Administrative (6

%)

Transporta

tion (4%)

Accommodation and fo

od service

(7%)

Retail trade (1

2%)

Manufacturin

g (11%)

Health (1

4%)

Other (3%)

Arts and enterta

inment (2%)

Public administ

ration (7%)

Financial se

rvices (

5%)

Education (9

%)

Information and co

mmunication (4

%)

Professi

onal and sc

ientific (5%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2

Perc

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n

What proportion of low skilled workers are Black and Hispanic?

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Among employed U.S. adults, those who are low- skilled in numeracy are also more likely to be Black or Hispanic.

Below Level 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

47

22

11

7

4

26

22

11

5

2

21

48

71

82

87

4

4

5

5

6

2

3

2

2

2

HispanicBlackWhiteAsianOther

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Hispanic Black White Asian/Pacific Islander Other0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Below Level 1Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 & 5

A higher proportion of Hispanic and Black 16-34 year olds score at the lowest levels of proficiency in numeracy.

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This is of particular concern when we consider the changing racial/ethnic demographics of the U.S.

What proportion of low-skilled workers in the U.S. are

foreign-born?

17

Among employed U.S. adults, those who are low-skilled in numeracy are more likely to be foreign born than native born.

Below Level 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4/5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

51

77

88

90

90

49

23

12

10

10

Native BornForeign Born

How does skill level effect use of skills at work?

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U.S. workers who are low-skilled in numeracy use their numeracy skills at work less frequently than those with high numeracy skills.

Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/50

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Inde

x of

use

of n

umer

acy

skill

s at w

ork

What is the impact of skill level on income?

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Low-skilled adults in numeracy are more likely to have earnings in the lower income quintiles than adults with high levels of skills.

Below Level 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4/5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Bottom quintile ($16,600 or less/year)Lower middle quintile ($16,600 - $29,016/year)Middle quintile ($29,016 - $44,200/year)Upper middle quintile ($44,200 - $69,000/year)Top quintile ($69,000 or more/year)

Percent

What can we do to raise the skills of low-skilled workers in the U.S.?

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Participation rates in adult education and training are higher in the U.S. than in most countries. This is true for adults at all skill levels although, as elsewhere, low-skilled adults are less likely to participate.

What is the relationship between skill level and participation in

ongoing formal and non-formal education?

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U.S. workers who participated in formal or non-formal education in the year preceding the survey were less likely to be low skilled in numeracy than those who did not participate.

Participated (70%) Did not participate (30%)0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2Level 3 Level 4/5

Perc

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Did not participate in NFE (39%) Participated in NFE (61%)0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Below Level 1Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 & 5

Only 20% of 16-34 year olds who participated in non- formal education scored at the two lowest levels of numeracy skills.

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U.S. working adults with low skills in numeracy participated in fewer hours of non-formal education than those with higher skills in numeracy.

1-24 hrs. (41%) 25-49 hrs. (20%) 50-74 hrs. (6%) 75-99 hrs. (9%) 100+ hrs. (24%)0

5

10

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Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

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U.S. working adults who scored higher in numeracy were more likely to participate in non-formal education that was mainly job-related.

Yes (78%) No (22%)0

5

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35

40

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Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

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Barriers to participation in nonformal education identified by working adults.

I did not have the prerequisites2%

Education or training was too expensive/I could not afford

it23%

Lack of employer's support4%

I was too busy at work33%

The course or programme was offered at an incon-

venient time or place12%

I did not have time because of child care or family re-

sponsibilities13%

Something unexpected came up that prevented me from taking education or training

5% Other7%

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The most common reasons for U.S. working adults not participating in education and training are: too busy at work, cost, family responsibilities including childcare, and time that a course was offered.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

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45

50

Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

Per

cen

tage

of

sub

po

pu

lati

on

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Distribution of numeracy proficiency levels of U.S. working adults by whether employer or prospective employer paid for expenses related to their participation in formal education.

Yes, totally (12%) Yes, partly (11%) No, not at all (65%)0

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Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

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Distribution of numeracy proficiency levels of U.S. working adults by whether employer or prospective employer paid for expenses related to their participation in non-formal education.

Yes, totally (41%) Yes, partly (4%) No, not at all (29%) There were no such costs (23%)

0

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20

25

30

35

40

45

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Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

Perc

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