Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18

Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron SwensonATRA Santa Cruz2006 November 18

The Elevator Speech

Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric.

• Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle

• Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway

• GM’s Yellow Gas Cap

• Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol.

Only solar energy will do the job.

Solar is sufficient to power high capacity

PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.

A Little Personal History

ObjectiveTo demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute,

and is in fact the only viable transport alternative.

Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options…• Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels.• Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.• Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale.• Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.

Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… • Politics: Energy Independence• Economics: Quick Payback • Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI)• Environment: Carbon Divestment

Context: Global Warming

Global Warming over the Past Millennium

Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

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Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars

Tons

of C

O2 p

er P

erso

n

United States

Canada

Greece

California

United Kingdom

PortugalSpain

Italy

Germany

Denmark

FranceSweden

AustraliaNetherlands

Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries

Ton

s C

O2 p

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pers

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Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars

Context: Peak Oil

Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?

American Consumers Do Understand

Context: BioFuels

Net Production of Biomass in the USA

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

The All-New DonCar!

www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

There is no SilverSilver Bullet.

Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize

that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.

• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg

Context: Social Equity

Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation

resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

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Time

Consequence of Delayed Investment

begin investment before decline

Net Energy Production

Begin investment during decline

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

Energy Independence

Non-Oil, Power Exporting …

• Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..)

• Cities… (Santa Cruz?)

• Colleges… (UCSC?)

• Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day)

• Citizens… (You and I?)

But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…

Thomas Edison

“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

Global Solar Energy Balance

Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand

Nevada

P109-G1055201

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr

PV increases at 50%/yr

Peak +5 +10 +15

www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday

The Solution: Solar PRT

Solar on Rail

www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran

SkyTran Solar

Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

jPod Solar

www.jPods.com

Similar Solar Systems Exist

Economics

30 mph, operating speed

x 2 sec (vehicle interval)

= 88 ft between vehicles

= 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified

x 2 kw @ operating speed

= 120 kw needed in a mile stretch

10 hrs at peak operation equivalent

÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)

= 2.5 solar factor

120 x 2.5 = 300

kW/mile

x $6.00 /watt

$1,800,000 /mi

16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market

3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement

Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel

1.5 people/vehicle

2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity

27,000 passengers per day

Calculate Passengers per Day

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

25 mpg, average fleet mileage

27,000 passengers per day to match

2.0 people/vehicle

13,500 vehicles/day

x $2.50 /gallon fuel price

= $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily

$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage

$ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage

= 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline

Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Science

Thermodynamics of Oil

It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?

Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination

EROI = 10±

And it’s getting worse…

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI = 1030 ~ electric

And it’s getting better…

Environment

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels?

A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?

Lessons from History!

The original buggy whip protest!

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…

Touch it?

… It is ephemeral, like solar power.

See it?

A match made in heaven.

Can you lift it?

The Electric Rail

Solar PRT

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Solarevolution™

More at www.SolarEvolution.com

Additional Information

More about Global ConditionsMore about California ConditionsMore about Santa Cruz ConditionsMore about PRTMore HistoryMore about EthanolMore about TeraWatts

More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil

Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth

Consumption by Sector, USA

Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures

Oil Market Paradigms

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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/d

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“Seven Sisters”

Oil shocks

OPEC manages market

OPEC has to meet

new demand

Conservation, new fuels, new technologies

Non-OPEC - FSU Non-OPEC - FSU

OPEC

FSUFSU

OPEC

Used with permission by Peter Wells

USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030

$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants

Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use

More about Global Conditions: Global Warming

•

CO2 Reduction Target

Breakdown of CO2 Emissions

More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective

Measuring the efficiency and emissionsof the fuel/energy source

Well-to-Wheel

From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA

kg CO2/kg

LCA Example: CO2 from Materials Production

LCA Example: CO2 from Vehicle Production

More about California Conditions

Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001

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U.S.

kWh

Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference

More about Santa Cruz Conditions

Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns

Master Transportation Study

Master Transportation Study

More about PRT

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

More History

Lest we forget …They did bring coals to Newcastle.

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

More about BioFuels

The BioFuel Myths and Facts

Reality or Public Relations?

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.

Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident

Appendix F ﾐ Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986

US Agriculture: Crop Areas

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

US Agriculture: Crop Energy

Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

More about TeraWatts

Solar Industry Response?

www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2

Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%

How to get there? • Federal government procurement

$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by

2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,

support, increase, strengthen, grow…”

Inadequate

InadequateInconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)

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Fission

Biomas

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electr

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Solar,

wind, g

eoth

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0.5%

Source: BP & IEA

2004

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2050

14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day

30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

“Think TeraWatts”

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

white

Renewable Nations