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Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron SwensonATRA Santa Cruz2006 November 18
The Elevator Speech
Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric.
• Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle
• Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway
• GM’s Yellow Gas Cap
• Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol.
Only solar energy will do the job.
Solar is sufficient to power high capacity
PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.
A Little Personal History
ObjectiveTo demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute,
and is in fact the only viable transport alternative.
Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options…• Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels.• Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.• Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale.• Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.
Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… • Politics: Energy Independence• Economics: Quick Payback • Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI)• Environment: Carbon Divestment
Context: Global Warming
Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
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Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars
Tons
of C
O2 p
er P
erso
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United States
Canada
Greece
California
United Kingdom
PortugalSpain
Italy
Germany
Denmark
FranceSweden
AustraliaNetherlands
Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries
Ton
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O2 p
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pers
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Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars
Context: Peak Oil
Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?
We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?
American Consumers Do Understand
Context: BioFuels
Net Production of Biomass in the USA
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
There is no SilverSilver Bullet.
Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize
that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.
• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg
Context: Social Equity
Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation
resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
120
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Time
Consequence of Delayed Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Energy Independence
Non-Oil, Power Exporting …
• Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..)
• Cities… (Santa Cruz?)
• Colleges… (UCSC?)
• Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day)
• Citizens… (You and I?)
But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…
Thomas Edison
“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
Global Solar Energy Balance
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand
Nevada
P109-G1055201
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr
PV increases at 50%/yr
Peak +5 +10 +15
www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday
The Solution: Solar PRT
Solar on Rail
www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran
SkyTran Solar
Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations
jPod Solar
www.jPods.com
Similar Solar Systems Exist
Economics
30 mph, operating speed
x 2 sec (vehicle interval)
= 88 ft between vehicles
= 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified
x 2 kw @ operating speed
= 120 kw needed in a mile stretch
10 hrs at peak operation equivalent
÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)
= 2.5 solar factor
120 x 2.5 = 300
kW/mile
x $6.00 /watt
$1,800,000 /mi
16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market
3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement
Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile
Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel
1.5 people/vehicle
2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity
27,000 passengers per day
Calculate Passengers per Day
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
25 mpg, average fleet mileage
27,000 passengers per day to match
2.0 people/vehicle
13,500 vehicles/day
x $2.50 /gallon fuel price
= $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily
$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage
$ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage
= 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline
Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
Science
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
And it’s getting worse…
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
And it’s getting better…
Environment
Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
Back to solid fuels?
A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?
Lessons from History!
The original buggy whip protest!
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
Touch it?
… It is ephemeral, like solar power.
See it?
A match made in heaven.
Can you lift it?
The Electric Rail
Solar PRT
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
Solarevolution™
More at www.SolarEvolution.com
Additional Information
More about Global ConditionsMore about California ConditionsMore about Santa Cruz ConditionsMore about PRTMore HistoryMore about EthanolMore about TeraWatts
More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil
Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth
Consumption by Sector, USA
Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures
Oil Market Paradigms
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“Seven Sisters”
Oil shocks
OPEC manages market
OPEC has to meet
new demand
Conservation, new fuels, new technologies
Non-OPEC - FSU Non-OPEC - FSU
OPEC
FSUFSU
OPEC
Used with permission by Peter Wells
USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030
$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants
Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use
More about Global Conditions: Global Warming
•
CO2 Reduction Target
Breakdown of CO2 Emissions
More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective
Measuring the efficiency and emissionsof the fuel/energy source
Well-to-Wheel
From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA
kg CO2/kg
LCA Example: CO2 from Materials Production
LCA Example: CO2 from Vehicle Production
More about California Conditions
Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001
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U.S.
kWh
Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference
More about Santa Cruz Conditions
Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns
Master Transportation Study
Master Transportation Study
More about PRT
Freeway at Capacity
Vehicles Removed
PRT Passengers
PRT System
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
More History
Lest we forget …They did bring coals to Newcastle.
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
The Horseless Carriage
From GridLock to Gas Lines
More about BioFuels
The BioFuel Myths and Facts
Reality or Public Relations?
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.
Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident
Appendix F ﾐ Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986
US Agriculture: Crop Areas
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
US Agriculture: Crop Energy
Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
More about TeraWatts
Solar Industry Response?
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How to get there? • Federal government procurement
$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by
2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,
support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Inadequate
InadequateInconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
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OilCoa
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Fission
Biomas
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Hydro
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Solar,
wind, g
eoth
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0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
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2050
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think TeraWatts”
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
white
Renewable Nations
