six steps to climate leadership - Environment...

six steps to climate leadership:the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria

July 2015

CONTENTS

35 WhattheALPpromisedpriortothe2014election

SUBTITLE

22 Step1:Committoagoalofdecarbonisation

23 Step2:StrengthentheClimate Change Act24 Step3:MakeVictoriathehomegroundfor

Australia’srenewableenergyindustry

26 Step4:Cutenergywaste

30 Step5:Retireourdirtiestpowerstations

31 Step6:RuleoutnewfossilfuelprojectsforVictoria

14 California

16 Ontario

18 Scotland

20 OtherAustralianstates

07 ClimatechangeposesbigriskstoVictoria

08 Victoria is part of the problem

10 Runningoutoftime

11 Jobs of the future

12 Thefoundationsarealreadyinplace

conclusion

appendix

six steps to climate leadership for victoria

04 Thecaseforaction

what does leadership look like now?

why victoria needs to lead

introduction

Lead Author: Dr Nicholas Aberle

Email:n.aberle@environmentvictoria.org.au

Phone:(03)93418112

ContributingAuthors:AnneMartinelli,NickRoberts,MarkWakeham,GregFoyster

©EnvironmentVictoriaJuly2015.

Level2,60LeicesterSt,CarltonVictoria3053

(03)93418100,admin@environmentvictoria.org.au

www.environmentvictoria.org.au

This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.

4 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria

TheAndrewsGovernmentwaselectedinNovember2014withapromisetorestoreVictoria’sstatusasaleaderontheenvironmentandclimatechange.AfterfouryearsofbackwardstepsundertheCoalition,thispromiseiswelcomeandprovidesanopportunitytoputVictoriabackonasustainablefooting,growjobsandnewindustries,andsecurethewellbeingofcurrentandfutureVictorians.

Thepromisetoleadonclimatechangecomesatacrucialmoment.Fordecadeswehaveusedourland,waterandforestecosystemsunsustainably,culminatinginthemega-trendsofclimatechange,resourcescarcityandecosystemdepletion.Oftentheseareviewedasenvironmentalproblems,buttheyposeagravethreattooureconomyandwellbeing,1particularlyforvulnerablepeopleandcommunities.

Chartingapathtowardsasustainable,prosperousandfairVictoriawillrequirestrongleadershipandadeparturefromthebusiness-as-usualapproachtoenvironmentalpolicythathasledustothispoint.

Nowhereistheneedforleadershipmoreurgentthaninclimatepolicy.

Theclimatecrisisisworseningandtimeisrunningout.Thewindowofopportunityfordecisiveactiontostayunderthe‘guardrail’oftwodegreesofwarmingisrapidlyclosing.What’smore,crediblevoicesarenowsayingthatevenatwo-degreetargetismuchtoohigh,carryinganunacceptableriskofcatastrophicallydestabilisingtheclimateonwhichhumancivilisationdepends.Meetingalowertargetwilldemandevenswifteranddeepercutstoourcarbonpollution.

Therearesomeencouragingsignsofclimateleadershiparoundtheworld.Californiahassetambitiousemissionreductiontargetsandisrampingupinvestmentinrenewableenergy,whileOntarioinCanadahasphasedoutallitscoalpowerstationsoverthelasttenyears.EvenChina–theworld’slargestconsumerofcoal–isshiftingitsenergymixtowardsrenewables,increasinginvestmentinrenewableenergyby33percentin2014,reaching$83billioninasingleyear.2

The case for action

01introduction

1 ‘TheFutureEconomyProject:TheeconomicimpactofdiminishingnaturalcapitalinVictoria,’NousGroup,commissionedbyTheFutureEconomyGroup(2014).http://www.futureeconomy.com.au/download-reports/

2http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015

Untilrecently,renewableenergyhadalsobeengrowingstronglyinAustralia,creatingjobsandinvestmentandshowingpositivesignsforthedecarbonisationofoureconomy.

However,inaction,halfmeasuresandpoliticalback-trackingoverrecentyearsbyCoalitiongovernmentsatthestateandfederallevelhavecostusmuchofthatprogress.Inparticular,thecurrentfederalgovernment’smovestoabolishthecarbonpriceandslashtheRenewableEnergyTargethavehobbledtherenewableenergyindustry,denyingVictoriabillionsofdollars’worthofinvestment,thousandsofjobsinregionalareas,andacleanandhealthysourceofelectricity.

Intheabsenceofnationalleadershiponclimate,theVictorianGovernmentneedstostepintothebreachwithdecisiveactionofitsown.

TheParisclimatesummitinlate2015isanopportunityforworldleaderstofinallycommittothenecessaryactionforasafeclimate.ItisalsoanopportunityfortheVictorianGovernmenttopledgeitsownemissionsreductionsplanontheworldstage,bypassinglacklustreanddangerousfederaltargets.

SolarpanelsbeinginstalledontopofaWalmartstoreinCalifornia.

Decarbonisation: theremovalorreductionofcarbonfromenergysources,aimingforzeroemissions.

AwindfarminthecentralhighlandsofVictoria,nearBallarat.

Thisreportoutlinesanagendaforclimateleadershipin2015,andsetsoutsixambitiousyetachievablestepstheVictorianGovernmentshouldtaketodeliverthatleadership:

1. Commit to a goal of decarbonisation for the state

2. Strengthen the Climate Change Act

3. Make Victoria the home ground for Australia’s renewable energy industry

4. Cut energy waste

5. Retire our dirtiest power stations

6. Rule out new fossil fuel projects for Victoria

ThesearethemostimportantstepsrequiredforleadershiponclimatechangeinVictoria,thoughadditionalmeasurescouldbeincludedinacomprehensivepolicyagenda,tacklingemissionssourcessuchaslanduseandagriculture.

Thisreportdealsexclusivelywith‘mitigation’–thetaskofcuttingemissionstoreducetheextentofclimatechange.EnvironmentVictoriawilladdresstheimportanceof‘adaptation’–planningtoreducetheconsequencesofclimatechangeimpacts–infuturework.Thestategovernmentisrequiredtodevelopanadaptationplanbytheendof2016.

TheAndrewsGovernmenthasstartedtooutlineitsprioritiesforclimatechangepolicyandreducingVictoria’semissions.Now,morethansixmonthsafterbeingelected,it’stimefortheVictorianGovernmenttoturnitspromiseintoanactionplanforasafeclimateandcleanenergyeconomy.

CHAPTER 01Introduction – CONTINUED

As the global momentum to reduce emissions inevitably gathers pace, coal-dependent communities such as the Latrobe Valley will have to develop new economic opportunities.

Victoriaisextremelyvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.

Australiahasalwaysbeenalandofdroughtsandfloodingrains,buttheevidenceclearlyshowsthatwithoutstrongactiontoreduceemissions,extremeweatherwillbecomemorefrequent,moreintenseandmoredamaginginthefuture.

Byjust2020,Victoriacouldbeexperiencing25percentmoreCodeRedbushfiredangerdayseachsummer,and70percentmoreby2050.3 Moreintenserainfallandfloodingwillcarryever-largerdamagebills.Morefrequentandextremeheatwaveswillcostlivesanddamageinfrastructure,asourbodiesandservicesfailtocopewithextendedhighertemperatures.Averagemaximumtemperaturescouldbetwodegreeshigherthannow.4TheCSIROhasestimatedthatthenationalpricetagtoreplacehomesandbuildingsdamagedbyextremeweathereventsandsealevelrisebetweennowand2100couldtop$1.3trillion.5

Thehealthandwellbeingrepercussionsofextremeweatherarelikelytofallhardestonthepoorandvulnerable–thosealreadylivingwithchronichealthconditions,inpoorqualityhousingandwithalimitedfinancialbuffer.Thisisontopoftheairpollution-relatedhealthconsequencesbeingexperiencedbycoal-dependentcommunitiessuchastheLatrobeValley–alreadyoneofthemostdisadvantagedcommunitiesinVictoria.

Thenaturalenvironmentalsosuffersthroughthesechanges.Reducedfreshwateravailability,lossofalpineecosystems,increasedwatertemperatures,andoceanacidificationwillpushmanyspeciestothebrinkofextinction.6Agriculture,Victoria’slargestexportindustry,isfundamentallydependentonhealthylandandwaterresourcesandisvulnerabletothevagariesoftheweatheratthebestoftimes.Inachangingclimate,rainfallinthecrucialspringgrowingseasoncouldfallby20percentoverthenext50years;7extremeheatcanreducefruit

Climate change poses big risks to Victoria

02Why Victoria needs to lead

3‘ClimateChange–Victoria:TheScience,OurPeopleandOurStateofPlay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).

4http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-report-victorian-springs-to-dry-temperatures-to-rise-20141206-1216xq.html

5http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-09/damage-bill-for-extreme-natural-disasters-could-top-1-trillion/5955734

6‘ClimateChange–Victoria:Thescience,ourpeopleandourstateofplay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).

7http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-report-victorian-springs-to-dry-temperatures-to-rise-20141206-1216xq.html

CHAPTER 02why victoria needs to lead – CONTINUED

cropsby70percentandseverelyreducedairyoutput;wheatqualitycouldfallby34percentby2050.8Inafuturecharacterisedbylongerandmorefrequentdroughts,extremeheat,severeandunseasonalstormsandfewercoldspells,Victoria’sagriculturalproductivitywillbehithard.

Victoria’sheavyrelianceonburningbrowncoaltogenerateelectricityalsomakesuseconomicallyvulnerable.Astheglobalmomentumtoreduceemissionsinevitablygatherspace,coal-dependentcommunitiessuchastheLatrobeValleywillhavenochoicebuttodevelopneweconomicopportunities.Managingthattransitionpoorlywouldimposefurthereconomicandsocialupheavalonacommunitystillreelingfromelectricityprivatisationinthe1990s.

Victoriamattersintheinternationalemissionsreductiondebateandhasasignificantroleindrivingurgentactiononclimatechange.

Over80percentofVictoria’selectricityisgeneratedbyburningbrowncoal,9makingusoneofthemostpollutingstatesinoneofthemostpollutingcountriesintheworld.ArecentanalysisinNature Climate Change foundAustraliahasthesecondmostpollutingelectricitysectorintheworld,behindonlyIndia.10Victoria’sfleetofbrowncoalgeneratorsissignificantlyabovethenationalaverageemissionsintensity(emissionsperunitofelectricityprovided).

In2013,Victoria’sannualemissionswere120milliontonnesofgreenhousegases.Withapopulationof5.7millionpeople,thatamountstoannualemissionsof21tonnesperperson.Thiscomparesverypoorlywithotherdevelopednationsofroughlythesamesize.Norway,DenmarkandFinland–alladvancedcountrieswithhighstandardsoflivingandthrivingeconomies–havealmostidenticalpopulationstoVictoriaandsimilarGDPs,butallthreecountriesarearoundhalfaspollutingasVictoria(10.2,9.1and12.5tonnesperperson,respectively).Thisshowsthathighlevelsofcarbonpollutionisnotjustasymptomofhavingadevelopedeconomy(seeFigure1).

Victoria is part of the problem

Norway, Denmark and Finland all have a similar population size and GDP to Victoria, but around half the emissions per person.

8‘ClimateChange–Victoria:Thescience,ourpeopleandourstateofplay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).

9‘Victoria’sEnergyStatement,’DepartmentofStateDevelopment,BusinessandInnovation(2014).

10‘Keythresholdforelectricityemissions,’ChristopherKennedy,Nature Climate Change 5,179–181(2015)doi:10.1038/nclimate2494.

Anddespitetwodecadesofpolicyonclimatechange,Victoria’semissionsarestillwellabove1990levels–oftenusedasthebaselineyearforcomparingemissionsreductions(Figure2).

Almost50percentofVictoria’semissionscomefromfourlargebrowncoalpowerstationsintheLatrobeValley.Thishighlightsnotonlytheproblembutalsotheopportunitytomakesignificantcutstoour

Figure2.Victoria’semissionssince1990.

Figure1.GDPpercapitaversusemissionspercapitainfourjurisdictions.

emissions.Duringthetwoyearsthefederalcarbonpricewasinplace,pollutionfromthesepowerstationsfell,buthasrisenagainsincethecarbonpricewasrepealedin2014(Figure3).11

Theinternationaldebateaboutemissionsreductiontargetsisframedintermsofcarbonbudgetsfor‘allowableemissions’whichwouldgiveusa33,50or66percentchanceoflimitingwarmingtolessthantwodegrees.12 Governmentswouldnotallowaninfrastructureprojecttoproceedifithada33percentchanceofcatastrophicfailure,soourclimatetargetsshouldbesimilarlylowrisk.Atthecurrentconcentrationofemissionsalreadyintheatmosphere,weonlyhavea90percentchanceofavoidingtwodegreesofwarming.Furtheremissionswillfurtherreduceourchancesoflimitingtemperatureincreasestotwodegrees.13

Inotherwords,thecarbonbudgetforlimitingglobalwarmingtoundertwodegreeswithahighdegreeofcertaintyhasalreadybeenspent.

Thereisalsogrowingconcernthatevenatwodegreetargetismuchtoohigh,andthatcriticaltippingpointsmaybereachedatlowertemperatures.AsrespectedclimatescientistKevinAndersonhasnoted,atwo-degreeincreaseisthetransitionfromdangeroustoextremelydangerousclimatechange.14Wenowknowthateverygramofgreenhousegasisdoingusadditionaldamage.

Figure3.Victoria’semissionsbysource.

running out of time

11Howthispost-carbonpriceincreaseinelectricityemissionsaffectsoverallstateemissionsisnotyetclear.Comprehensivestate-wideemissionsdatafor2014willnotbeavailableuntil2016.

12‘SummaryforPolicyMakers,WorkingGroup1,AssessmentReport5,’IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(2013),p27.http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

13‘Recount:Itstimeto‘DotheMath’again,’DavidSpratt(2015).http://www.nocarbonbudget.info/

14‘Beyond‘dangerous’climatechange:Emissionscenariosforanewworld,’KevinAnderson&AliceBows,Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A(2011)vol369,20-44.

Loy Yang A Hazelwood

Yallourn Loy Yang B

Transport Other Energy

Industrial Processes Agriculture

Waste Deforestation

15Forexample:‘DelayingclimateactionwouldbecostlyforAustraliaandtheworld,’WWFAustralia(2015),http://www.wwf.org.au/news_resources/resource_library/?13780/Delaying-climate-action-would-be-costly-for-Australia-and-the-world;‘Thecostofdelayingactiontostemclimatechange,’TheWhiteHouseCouncilofEconomicAdvisers(2014),https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/07/29/new-report-cost-delaying-action-stem-climate-change.

16‘Renewables2015:GlobalStatusReport,’REN21(2015).http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/

17https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/policy-advocacy/renewable-energy-target/why-we-need-the-renewable-energy-target.html

18http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/environment-commissioner-kate-auty-quits-drops-bucket-20140305-347ln.html

19‘StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing,’WorldBank(2014).https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/05/28/state-trends-report-tracks-global-growth-carbon-pricing

The jobs of the future are here in the present, and will gravitate to jurisdictions with supportive policy settings.

Thesoonerwecanachievezeronetemissions,thebetter.Tinkeringaroundtheedgesnowandrelyingondeeperemissionscutsdecadesintothefutureisnotaviableoption.15

ToquoteWinstonChurchill,“Theeraofprocrastination,ofhalf-measures,ofsoothingandbafflingexpedients,ofdelays,iscomingtoitsclose.Initsplaceweareenteringaperiodofconsequences.”

Reducingemissionsatthenecessaryspeedandscalewillrequireafundamental,globalshifttocleanenergy.Countriesandstatesthatmakethistransitionandmanageiteffectively–spreadingthecostsandbenefitsfairly–willsharetheprosperityofthetwenty-firstcentury.Thosethatdon’triskbeingleftbehind.

Renewableenergyisalreadycreatingenormousnumbersofjobsincountriesthatareactivelypromotingtheindustrywithpositivepolicysettings.Globally,annualinvestmentinrenewableenergyhasexceeded$USD200billionforthepastfiveyearsandhasoutpacedinvestmentinfossilfuels.Thejobsofthefuturearehereinthepresent,andwillgravitatetojurisdictionswithsupportivepolicysettings.

In2014,Germanyhadanestimated371,000peopleemployedinrenewableenergy;theUShasalmost250,000workersinsolarandwindalone.16Australia’sCleanEnergyCouncilestimatesthat,in2012,24,000Australianswereemployedinrenewableenergy.HadtheFederalRenewableEnergyTargetremainedat41,000gigawatthours(GWh),theindustrywasprojectedtocreateafurther18,400jobs.17

ThepastfouryearsinVictoriasawaracetothebottombythestateCoalitiongovernment.TheCoalitionscrappedalmosteveryclimatechangeprogram,createdbarrierstorenewableenergy,slashedenergyefficiencyprogramsandeveninstructedgovernmentdepartmentsnottomentionthewords‘climatechange’.18

Atthenationallevel,thecurrentAustraliangovernment–lobbiedbythefossilfuelandminingindustries–hasdismantledtheclimatepolicyframeworkputinplacebythepreviousGillardGovernment.Australiahasbecomethefirstcountryintheworldtoscrapanemissionstradingschemeatatimewhentherestoftheworldismovingintheoppositedirection.AccordingtotheWorldBank,about40countriesandover20sub-nationaljurisdictionsareputtingapriceoncarbon,witheightnewcarbonmarketsstartingin2013alone.19Atthesametime,thelengthyreviewoftheRenewableEnergyTargetcausedcripplingbusiness

jobs of the future

uncertainty.In2014,investmentinlarge-scaleprojectsdropby88percent.

Stategovernmentsarerealisingtheenormousenvironmentalandinvestmentpotentialofstrongleadershipintheclimatechangeandrenewableenergypolicyarenas.

WithlittlesignoftheCanberraleadershipvacuumabating,theneedforVictoriatoprovidedecisiveactiononclimatechangeandrenewableenergyhasneverbeengreater.

The 2010 Victorian Climate Change White Paper,developedbytheBrumbyGovernmentandreleasedintheALP’sfinalmonthsinoffice,outlinedaleadershipagendaonclimatechange,witharangeofinnovativepoliciesandprograms.Thisagenda,however,wasdevelopedtoolateandtheALPneverhadthechancetodeliverit.UndertheCoalitiongovernmentthatfollowed,Victoriatookmanybackwardsstepswhiletherestoftheworldmovedahead.

SinceitselectioninNovember2014,theAndrewsGovernmenthasshownencouragingsignsitintendstoplayaleadershiproleinkeypolicyareasandwillavoidtheALP’spreviousmistakeofdevelopingclimatepolicytoolateinitstermofgovernment:

EnergyMinisterLilyD’AmbrosiotoldParliamentinFebruary2015that“wewillonceagainleadthecountrywhenitcomestochangingourenergymix,reducingourenergyconsumptionandensuringthatthefutureiscleaner,brighter,healthierandsaferforeverysingleVictorian”.

Afterrollingbackplanningbarrierstowindfarms,EnvironmentandClimateChangeMinisterLisaNevillesaid:“We’verestartedthewindfarmindustryandwe’recommittedtoonceagainbeingaleaderontacklingclimatechange.”Inanearlierspeech,shesaid,“ifwearen’tdoingallwecantotackleclimatechangewewillnotseeoureconomyadvance”.20

The ALP policy paper Our Environment, Our Future,releasedinthelead-uptotheNovember2014election,identifiedclimatechangeas“oneofthemostcriticalissuesfacingVictoria”.

The foundations are already in place

20SpeechattheAustralianCoastalCouncilsConference,13March2015.http://seachangetaskforce.org.au/2015/03/16/victorian-government-committed-to-improve-coastal-management/

21http://www.araratadvertiser.com.au/story/2962773/ararat-council-praised-for-wind-energy-support/

Onrenewableenergy,PremierDanielAndrewshassaid:“Victoriaisopenforbusiness.InvestorswanttocometoVictoriaandbackrenewableenergy.”MrAndrewsdescribedwindfarmrulechangesasthe“mostpositivesignaltothewindenergyindustryinfourlongyears.It’sgoodfortheplanet,butit’sgoodforeconomicdevelopmentaswell”.21

Buttimeisshortandourenvironmentandourcommunitiesneedrealactionandleadershipfromgovernmenttoday.

Australia’sCleanEnergyCouncilestimatesthat,in2012,24,000Australianswereemployedinrenewableenergy.

WhileVictoriawentbackwards,otherjurisdictionsmadesignificantprogress.Thebarhasbeenraisedinstatementsofambition,indeliveryofresultsandinwhatthesciencesaysisnecessarytoavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange.

Internationally,leadingcountriesarepreparingtomakestrongcommitmentsattheParisclimateconferenceinNovember/December2015.22Butactionisalsobeingtakenatthesub-nationallevelinmanyplaces.Withfederalpolicyfailingtorealisetheopportunity,thereisamplescopetomatchtheeffortsandresultsoftheseotherjurisdictions.

Key points:

40% emissions reductions by 2030, and 80% by 2050

The ‘Go Solar California’ program has delivered 2300 MW of solar panels, with a target of 3000 MW by 2016

California,likeVictoria,willbehithardbyclimatechange.Itiscurrentlyinthegripofitsworst-everdrought.Recognisingtherisks,GovernorJerryBrownhascommittedhisstatetoanemissionsreductiontargetof40percentbelow1990levelsby2030.HispredecessorArnoldSchwarzeneggerhadalreadysetatargetof80percentreductionsby2050,butGovernorBrownintroducedtheinterimtargettohelpdriveearlycutstoemissions,ratherthandelayingaction.

TheGovernorhassaidthat“we’regoingtotakewhateverstepsareneededtogetthejobdone,becauseourfuturedependsonit”.23 The stateisexpectedtoreturntoits1990emissionslevelsby2020,withfurtherreductionstofollow.

03What does leadership look like now?

california

22http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/g7-urgency-on-climate-raises-hopes-for-paris-27365

23http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-orders-emission-targets-for-climate-change-20150429-story.html

24http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-pol-brown-inauguration-20150106-story.html#page=1

Brownhasadded:“TakingsignificantamountsofcarbonoutofoureconomywithoutharmingitsvibrancyisexactlythesortofchallengeatwhichCaliforniaexcels…Thisisexciting,itisboldanditisabsolutelynecessaryifwearetohaveanychanceofstoppingpotentiallycatastrophicchangestoourclimatesystem.”24BrownrecentlycommencedanunprecedentedfourthtermasGovernorandisnowbuildinganallianceofotherstatesinNorthAmericapledgingdecisiveactiononclimatechange.25

Californiahasarangeofprogramstodriveemissionsreductions.TheGoSolarCaliforniaprogram,forexample,hasdeliveredover2300megawatts(MW)ofsolarpanels,withatargetof3000MWby2016.Thestate’s Climate Change Scoping Paperoutlinesinitiativesforallsectorsoftheeconomy,fromrenewableenergyandenergyefficientbuildingstotransport,agricultureandwaste.

SolarthermaltowerintheMojavedesert,California.

FormerCalifornianGovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggertoursthetheNextEraHarperLakesolarpowerstationinHinkley,California.

25http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-california-international-climate-change-20150519-story.html

Key points:

First jurisdiction in North America to phase out all coal

Emissions reduced to below 1990 levels

Emissions standards for coal power stations less than 1/3 of Hazelwood in Victoria

Ontario,Canada’smostpopulousprovince,ishometo13.5millionpeople(about36percentofCanada’spopulation)anduntilrecentlysourcedabout25percentofitselectricityfromcoal.

Toreducebothgreenhousegasemissionsandthehealthimpactsofcoal(anestimatedpublichealthburdenof$3billionannually),Ontariohasembarkedonasystematicstrategytophaseoutcoal.PremierKathleenWynnetoldUSofficialsinWashingtonofextremeweathereventsthathaverockedOntario:“That’snotadistantorpotentialthreat.ThatisachangingclimatethatisdestroyingthelivelihoodofpeopleIserve.”26

Ontario’sphase-outofallcoalpowerstationsoverthepasttenyearsmakesitthefirstjurisdictioninNorthAmericatoeliminatecoalasasourceofelectricity.Itdidsobypromotingcleanerformsofelectricity(suchasthroughfeed-intariffs)andreducingdemand(suchasthroughimprovedstandardsforresidentialandcommercialbuildingsandmoreefficientappliances).27Ontarioisalsoabouttojoinamulti-statecap-and-tradeschemewithCaliforniaandQuebec.ThesechangeshavehelpedOntarioreducetheiremissiontobelow1990levels.28

AcrossCanadamorebroadly,newregulationsimposeanemissionsperformancestandardoncoal-firedpowerstations.Thiswilleffectivelycloseallpre-1986coalpowerstationsby2030atthelatest,andpost-1986powerstationsoncetheyare50yearsold(i.e.from2036).Theemissionsperformancestandardforacoalplanttocontinueoperatingbeyondthistimelimitis0.42tonnes/MWh29–lessthanone-thirdoftheemissionsintensityofHazelwoodorYallournpowerstationsinVictoria.

CHAPTER 03what does leadership look like now? – CONTINUED

Ontario

26http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-in-washington-to-talk-climate-change-not-keystone-pipeline-1.3080387

27http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/08/ontario_s_war_on_coal_how_a_heavily_populated_heavy_industry_canadian_province.html

28‘Ontario’sClimateChangeUpdate,’MinistryoftheEnvironmentandClimateChange(2014).http://www.ontario.ca/document/ontarios-climate-change-update-2014

29‘Coal-FiredElectricityGenerationRegulationsOverview,’EnvironmentCanada.http://www.ec.gc.ca/cc/default.asp?lang=En&n=C94FABDA-1

Ontario’s phase out of all coal power stations over the past ten years makes it the first jurisdiction in North America to eliminate coal as a source of electricity.

OntarioPremierKathleenWynneandAlGoreannounceplansfortheprovincetogo100%coalfree.

Key points:

42% emissions reductions below 1990 by 2020

Five-fold growth in renewable energy since 2004, generating 20,000 GWh a year

Achieved 50% renewable energy in 2014, on track to a target of 100% by 2020

Scottishclimatechangelegislationsetsatargetforemissionsreductionsof42percentbelow1990levelsby2020and80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.Scotlandalsohasannualnetemissionstargets.Whilerecentannualtargetshavenotbeenmet,emissionsarealreadyanimpressive26percentbelow1990levels.

ScotlandhasapopulationandelectricitydemandcomparabletoVictoria,justslightlysmaller.AsinOntario,thekeydriverbehindtheScottishreductioninemissionshasbeenacleanerelectricitysupply(includingafive-foldgrowthinrenewableenergysince2004andtheclosureofamajorcoalpowerstationin2013),complementedbyinvestmentinenergyefficiency.Renewableenergysupplied50percentofScotland’selectricityin2014,morethandoublingsince2010.Enoughprojectshavebeenapprovedtomorethandoubletotalcapacityagain.30 Asacomparison,Scotland’srenewableenergyfacilitiesnowgeneratealmost20,000GWh–equivalentto40percentofVictoria’selectricitydemand.

Rapidgrowthalreadyin2015showsthatScotlandisontracktomeetsitstargetof100percentrenewableenergyby2020.31

scotland

30‘ReducingemissionsinScotland–2015Progressreport,’CommitteeonClimateChange(2015).http://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/reducing-emissions-in-scotland-2015-progress-report/

31http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/26/3674316/scotland-gets-half-its-power-from-renewables/

Scottish climate change legislation sets a target for emissions reductions of 42 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

AnelectricbuspurchasedthroughtheScottishgovernment’sGreenBusFund.

Closertohome,thenewlyelectedQueenslandgovernmentrecentlycommittedtotargetsof50percentrenewableenergyby2030,andonemillionhomeswithsolarpanelsby2020.32

In2008,Victoria,NSWandQueenslandhadroughlythesamenumberofsolarpanelinstallations.Sincethen,thenumberofinstallationsinVictoriahasgrownrapidly,butnotasrapidlyasinotherstates(Figure4).33

Asapercentageoftotaldwellings,uptakeofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)inVictorianowlagswellbehindQueenslandandSouthAustralia(Figure5).

TheACThascommittedto90percentrenewableenergyby2020,relyingpredominantlyonreverse-auctionfeed-intariffs.34TheACTalsohasanemissionsreductiontargetof40percentbelow1990levelsby2020.

InSouthAustralia,renewableenergyalreadysuppliesover36percentofelectricitydemand.35

Figure6showshowtheemissionsofeachstateandterritoryhavechangedsince1990.Comparedtotheothermajoreastcoaststates,Victoriahasalotofgroundtomakeup.Tasmaniahasachievedthebiggestcutsinnetemissions,36chieflythroughreforestationoflandclearedbefore1990.37

other australian states

Figure4.CumulativesolarphotovoltaicinstallationsbyAustralianstate.

34http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/90_percent_renewable

35‘TheAustralianRenewableEnergyRace:Whichstatesarewinningorlosing?’ClimateCouncil(2014).

36DepartmentofEnvironment,StateandTerritoryInventories2013(May2015).http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications/state-and-territory-greenhouse-gas-inventories-2013

37‘Tasmania’sEmissionsProfile–FactSheet1:GreenhouseGasEmissionsforTasmania2011’,TasmanianClimateChangeOffice(2014).

A reverse-auctioninvitesbidswherethelowestbidwins.Thisprovidesvalue-for-moneyforgovernment.Companiesmakebidsonthefeed-intariff(paymentsfromgovernment)atwhichtheyarepreparedtobuildtheirrenewableenergyproject(typicallyuptoadefinednumberofmegawattsoftotalcapacity).

Figure5.PercentageofdwellingswithsolarPVbyAustralianstate.

Figure6.Changeinemissionssince1990(includingLandUse,LandUseChange,Forests)byAustralianstatesince1990.

SA QLD WA NSW VIC ACT TAS NT

TAS SA NSW QLD VIC ACT NT WA

Victoriahasalongwaytocatchuptothecurrentleadersonclimatechange.Thegoodnews,however,isthatthestepstoregainourstatusasanationalandworldleaderarerelativelystraightforward,proveninotherjurisdictionsandachieveable.

step 1Commit to a goal of decarbonisation for the stateAgenuinecommitmenttoactiononclimatechangeneedstorecogniseafundamentalpremise:thatwemustachievezeronetemissionsassoonaspossible.Despiteitsstatedintentiontoleadonclimate,theVictorianGovernmenthasnotyetarticulatedavisionforthefulldecarbonisationoftheeconomy.

Thestategovernmentshouldthereforesetanemissionsreductiontargetthatisconsistentwiththelatestunderstandingofwhatisrequiredtoavoidthefurtherimpactsofclimatechange.Atargetshouldhaveshort,mediumandlongtermtimeframes.Simplysettingatargetfor2030or2050carrieslittleweightbecauseitdoesnotcreateanypoliticalaccountabilityforgovernmentsoftodayandtomorrow.

Modellingconductedin2008bytheNousGroup,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria,foundthatVictoriacouldreduceitsemissionsby54percent(comparedto1990)by2020.38Thisreductionof74milliontonneswasachievablein11years–anannualreductionof6-7milliontonnes.Assumingthisrateofreductionisstillfeasible,asat2015Victoriacouldreduceitsemissionsby32milliontonnesby2020–equivalenttoa25percentreductionon2000levels.Inthecontextoutlinedatthebeginningofthisreport–thatallfurtheremissionswillinevitablyleadtoadditionaldamage–thisshouldbeconsideredtheminimumrateofchangethattheVictorianGovernmentmustaspireto.

04Six steps to climate leadership for Victoria

38‘Turningitaround:ClimatesolutionsforVictoria,’TheNousGroup,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria(2008).

ThereisarisktheAustraliangovernmentwillgototheUNclimatesummitinParislaterthisyearwithdisastrouslyunambitiousemissionreductiontargets.PremierAndrewshasanopportunitytofillthisleadershipvacuumbyattendingthesummittoannounceVictoria’scommitmenttodecarbonisetheeconomy,aswellastheshort-termtargetsthatthestatewillachieve.InthemonthsbeforetheParismeeting,PremierAndrewsshouldmakeVictoriaasignatorytotheCompactofStatesandRegions,agroupofsub-nationalgovernmentsmakingcommitmentstoreducetheircarbonemissionsandtoprovideannualreportingonprogresstowardsthosetargets.TheACThasrecentlysigneduptothisCompact,39joiningSouthAustraliaasoneoftwentysignatories.40

step 2Strengthen the Climate Change ActVictoria’s Climate Change Actcurrentlylacksimportantlegislativemeasurestodeliveremissionsreductionsandshouldbestrengthened.

AsEuropeanexperienceshows,directregulationofsulphurdioxide(SO2)andcarbondioxide(CO2)isaveryeffectivewaytoreduceemissions.TheVictorianEnvironmentProtectionAuthority(EPA)shouldbegiventhepowertoregulategreenhousegasemissions,andtothensetindustrialemissionsintensitystandardsthatwillhelpachieveemissionsreductiongoals.ThecurrentreviewsoftheClimate Change ActandtheEPAaretheperfectvehiclestoaddressthis.

Recognisingclimatechangeasaseriousriskinvolvesensuringthatnogovernmentdecisionsexacerbatetheproblem.ForahandfulofActsofParliament,Governmentdecision-makersarerequiredtoconsiderclimatechangeaspartofthedecision-makingprocess.Mostdecisionscarrynosuchrequirement.Tofixthis,Schedule1oftheClimate

Whiteleewindfarm,southofGlasgow,isEurope’slargest.

As at 2015 Victoria could reduce its emissions by 32 million tonnes by 2020 – equivalent to a 25 percent reduction on 2000 levels.

39http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/new-compact-of-states-and-regions-to-help-tackle-climate-change-launched-at-un-summit/

40http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/leading-sub-national-governments-sign-compact-of-states-and-regions/

Change Actshouldextendtoallgovernmentdecisions,includingmajorprojects,transport,planning,economicdevelopment,innovationandprocurement.Otherwise,effortstoreduceemissionsinonesector,suchaselectricity,couldbecancelledoutbyincentivestoincreaseemissionsinanother.Thiswillensureawhole-of-governmentapproachtoclimatechange.

AstrengthenedActneedstointroducepromptannualpublicreportingoftrendsinVictoria’semissions.Currently,aggregateemissionsdataisnotmadepublicuntilonetotwoyearsafterthefact.Ifwecan’tseeareal-timescoreboard,wedon’tknowifwe’remakingprogress,andcan’tadjustoureffortsaccordingly.Thisdataneedstobereleasedtothepublicmuchsooner.

TheemissionsreductiontargetoutlinedinStep1–eitheranannualrateofreductionoraminimum25percenttargetby2020–shouldbere-introducedintothelegislation.

step 3Make Victoria the home ground for Australia’s renewable energy industrySincebeingelected,theAbbottGovernmenthashobbledtheroll-outofrenewableenergyinAustralia.Atthestatelevel,theAndrewsGovernmenthasnowlargelyremovedbarriersaffectingwindfarmdevelopment,butrenewableenergystillprovidesjust12percentofVictoria’selectricity.Weneedacomprehensivepolicyagendatodrivesignificantgrowthinthissector,intheprocesscreatingthousandsofjobs.

Inawelcomemove,theAndrewsGovernmenthasannounceditsintentiontoestablishaVictorianRenewableEnergyTarget(VRET)tocomplementthefederalRenewableEnergyTarget(RET),soastoboosttheshareofrenewablesinourelectricitymix.41AsshowninChapter3,otherjurisdictionshaveachievedveryhighsharesofrenewableenergydespitereadyaccesstofossilfuels.AsatOctober2014,Victoriahad2489MWofwindprojectswithplanningapproval,42which,ifbuilt,woulddeliveralmost$5billionofinvestmentandover2500associatedjobs.43 Thestategovernmentneedstoactquicklytoensuretheseprojectsgoahead.

CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED

Schedule 1 of the Climate Change Act should extend to all government decisions…and the emissions reduction target should be reintroduced into the legislation.

41www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-to-adopt-renewable-energy-target-if-the-abbott-government-allows-it-20150513-gh0vum.html

42http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/energy/sustainable-energy/wind-energy/wind-projects

43http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/06/11/14/44/vic-govt-wants-ret-top-up-change

44https://theconversation.com/heres-how-the-states-can-dodge-canberras-renewable-roadblock-42043

45http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-26/act-backed-wind-farm-project-to-go-ahead-in-victoria/6574618

46http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/north/darebin-council-approves-special-rate-for-australian-first-solar-saver-scheme-for-pensioners/story-fnglenug-1227055309805;

FederalParliamentrecentlyamendedtheRenewableEnergyTarget(RET)legislation.TheAndrewsGovernmentpushedtorepealsection7Cofthelegislation,whichpreventsstatesfromestablishingtargetsthatrelyontradeablecertificates(asthefederalRETdoes).Theseeffortswereunsuccessful,andsection7Cremains.Victoriacan,however,establishastatetargetforrenewableenergythatisdeliveredbyanothermechanism.TheAndrewsGovernmentshouldnowusereverse-auctionfeed-intariffsora‘contractsfordifference’mechanismthatcouldworksymbioticallywiththefederaltarget.44

ThismodelhasbeenproventoworkbytheACTGovernment.InfactVictoriaisalreadybenefittingfromit–the240MWAraratwindfarmwasfinancedbytheACTreverseauctionworkingincombinationwiththenationalRenewableEnergyTarget.45

TheAndrewsGovernmentcanimmediatelyboostrenewableenergyprojectsbypurchasingmoreGreenPower.ThepercentageofVictorianGovernmentelectricitypurchasedasGreenPowerhasfallenfromapeakof27percentin2010-11tojustonepercentin2013-14.Governmentshouldimmediatelyreturntoits2010-11levelsofGreenPowerandestablishatimelineforincreasingto100percentGreenPower.Thisprocurementcouldbeusedtomakepower-purchaseagreementswithlarge-scalerenewableprojects.

Thegovernmentcouldalsoboostsmallerprojectsandresidentialuptakebyincreasingtheexistingfeed-intarifftobetterreflectthecontributionrooftopsolarmakestoVictoria’spowersupply.Thefeed-intariffcurrentlysitsatalowandunfairsixcentsperkilowatthour(kWh),aboutfivetimeslessthantheretailpriceofelectricitypaidbyhouseholds.Aheadofthe2014election,LaborcommittedtoaskingtheEssentialServicesCommissiontoinvestigatethe“truevalueofdistributedgeneration”.Throughthisprocess,EnvironmentVictoriawillbeadvocatingforfeed-intariffstobeincreasedtomatchretailprices.

WhilemorethanamillionAustralianhouseholdshaveinstalledrooftopsolarsystemsandarebenefitingfromlowerpowerbillsasaresult,low-incomehouseholdswhocan’taffordtheupfrontcostshavebeenmissingout.Withoutgovernmentinterventiontoassistthesehouseholds,wewillnotachievethebroad-scalesolarroll-outweneedtoreduceemissionssubstantially.

InnovativefinancingmodelsoperatingaroundVictoriaeffectivelyaddresstheseupfrontcosthurdles.DarebinCouncil,forexample,recentlyfinancedrooftopsolarinstallationsfor300pensioners,whowillrepaytheCouncil’supfrontcostsviatheirrates.46Thestategovernment

In October 2014 Victoria had 2489 MW of wind projects with planning approval. If built, these projects would deliver almost $5 billion of investment and over 2500 jobs.

canalsobuildonthesefoundationsatalocalleveltodevelopandfinanceabroad-scaleprogramtoensureallVictorians,regardlessofincome,haveaccesstorooftopsolar.SuchaprogramcouldbebasedonarevolvingfundsimilartotheCleanEnergyFinanceCorporation.

Atthetimeofwriting,EnergyMinisterLilyD’AmbrosiohasintroducedlegislationtoenableallCouncilstouse‘EnvironmentalUpgradeAgreements’tohelpfinancerenewableenergyinstallationsandenergyefficiencyupgradesforbusinesses.47Thisinitiativecouldbeexpandedtoallowhouseholdstobenefitfromeasyaccesstofinance.

Community-scalerenewableenergyprojectsalsoneedtobesupported,bothfinanciallyandnon-financially.Financialsupportcanincludefeed-intariffsorgrantfunding.Non-financialsupportcanincludeprovidingtechnical,legalandfinancialadvicetocommunitygroups,facilitatingpower-purchaseagreementsandgridconnections,andallowingvirtualnetmetering.48ThesupportalreadygiventoprojectsinNewsteadandWoodend49needstobereplicatedonamuchlargerscaletodozensofprojectsacrossthestate.

Betterbatterystorageloomsasagame-changingbreakthroughintheenergysector.Rapidtechnologicaladvanceswillverysooncreatewidespreaddemandforbatterysystems.ThestategovernmentneedstoensurethatVictoriaispreparedfrombothatechnologicalandregulatoryperspectivetowelcomeabroaduptakeofbatterystoragefacilities.

step 4Cut energy wasteGivenVictoria’sheavyrelianceonbrowncoalforelectricitygeneration,oneofthecheapestandfastestwaystocutemissionsistoreduceelectricityconsumptionthroughenergyefficiency.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyrecentlyidentifiedimprovingenergyefficiencyasthenumberoneglobalactiontoachievepeakemissionsby2020andsignificantdeclinesby2030.50

Victoria,liketherestoftheworld,cansignificantlyreduceitsemissionsthroughenergyefficiencymeasures.However,theemissionsbenefitofreducingcoaluseinVictoriaislikelytobemuchgreaterthanindicatedinFigure7,duetotheparticularlyhighemissionsintensityofthestate’sbrowncoalelectricitygeneration.

The state government should develop and finance a broad-scale program to ensure all Victorians, regardless of income, have access to rooftop solar.

47http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-legislation-to-empower-energy-efficient-businesses.

48‘Governmentsupportoptionsforcommunityenergy:Bestpracticeinternationalpolicy’,CommunityPowerAgency,(2014).http://cpagency.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/CPA_Best-Practice-International-Policy_Oct-2014.pdf

49http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-government-shows-renewed-interest-in-renewables-20150227-13p9v7.html

50‘WorldEnergyOutlook:Specialreportonenergyandclimatechange’,InternationalEnergyAgency(2015).https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/june/iea-sets-out-pillars-for-success-at-cop21.html

Quote outside of copy. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat.

51http://www.theage.com.au/comment/australian-houses-are-just-glorified-tents-in-winter-20150610-ghj2ox

52http://environmentvictoria.org.au/onemillionhomes

53http://environmentvictoria.org.au/onemillionhomes

Improvedenergyefficiencyhasmanyotherbenefits.Cuttingenergywastehelpshouseholdsandbusinessessavemoney.Italsoactstoreducepeakdemand,oneofthekeydriversofrisingelectricityprices.

ThequalityofVictoria’sbuildingstockislowbyworldstandards,whichimposeseconomicaswellashealthandwellbeingimpactsonhouseholdsandthewidereconomy.ArecentstudyfoundthatmorepeoplediefromthecoldinAustraliathaninSweden–notfromextremeeventslikeblizzardsbutfromconditionslikeincreasedbloodpressurecausedbychronicexposuretouncomfortablylowtemperatures.51 Much ofthatcanbeattributedtothepoorqualityofourhousing.

Victoria’spre-2005housingstockaveragesonly2starsintermsofefficiencyperformance,52whichmeansalotoftheexpensive,emissions-intensiveenergyweusetoheatandcoolourhomesissimplyblowingoutofleakywindowsandroofs.

ManyVictorianshavetakenstepstoimprovetheefficiencyoftheirhomesandcutwaste–upgradingtheirinsulation,sealingdraughts,shadingwindowsandinstallingefficientlightingandappliances.Whileeveryhouseisdifferent,inmostcasesspendingaround$5000onefficiencycancuthouseholdenergyuseby40percent(translatingtosavingsof$1000ayearonutilitybills).53

Figure7.Relativecontributionofmeasurestoemissionreductions,globally.50

However,themassuptakeofenergyefficiencymeasuresrequiredtoachieveambitiousemissionsreductiontargetswillnotoccurwithoutgovernmentinterventionintwokeyareas:

Investinginacomprehensivehouseholdretrofitprogramforlow-incomeandvulnerablehouseholds.

Improvingperformancestandardstodriveinvestmentintherestofourhousingstock.

Aswithrooftopsolar,low-incomehouseholdsareexcludedfromthefinancialandhealthbenefitsofenergyefficiencybecausetheycannotaffordtheupfrontcostsofimprovementsand/orbecausetheyrent.Toaddressthissituation,thegovernmentshouldimplementacomprehensiveprogramtoretrofitVictoria’sonemillionlow-incomehouseholdsby2025.Suchaprogramcouldbedeliveredatleastcostthroughamixof:

governmentinvestment(particularlyinpublichousing)

reformoftheVictorianEnergyEfficiencyTargetscheme

establishmentofinnovativefinancingmechanismssuchason-billfinancingarrangements,aswellastakingadvantageofopportunitiestoinstallrooftopsolaraspartofanintegratedupgrade(seeStep3above).

Energyefficiencyschemesgeneratejobswhilehelpinghouseholdssaveontheirbills.

Asnotedaboveonthefinancingofsmall-scalerenewableenergy,EnergyMinisterLilyD’Ambrosiohasintroducedlegislationtoenable‘EnvironmentalUpgradeAgreements’tohelpfinanceenergyefficiencyupgradesforbusinesses.ThisusesloansthroughCouncilsthatarethenrepaidthroughCouncilrates.

IntroducingminimumenergyandwaterefficiencystandardsatthepointofsaleorleasewouldleverageprivateinvestmentinefficiencyanddrivetheupgradeoftherestofVictoria’shousingstockovertime.

Minimumstandardsforrentalpropertiesareparticularlycritical.Renters,notlandlords,payenergybills,sowithoutminimumstandardslandlordshavelittleincentivetoinvestinimprovedenergyefficiency–particularlyinMelbourne’stightrentalmarket.Improvedstandardsshouldbephasedinandratchetedupovertime,complementedbytargetedfinancialassistancetoassisthomeownersandlandlordstocomply.

Victorialedthewaywhenitintroducedaperformancestandardof5starsfornewhomesandrenovationsin2005,subsequentlyincreasedto6starsin2011.Tomaintainitsleadershipstatus,Victoria’snewhomestandardneedstoberaisedfurthertoreflectadvancesinenergyefficienthomedesignandconstruction.Victoriashouldnowmoveto7stars,withprogressiveincreasesincomingyearstowardsthegoalofzero-net-carbonandwater-efficientnewbuildingsby2020.Attentionalsoshouldbegiventoimprovingcompliance,toensurenewbuildingsactuallyperformtothemandatedstandardinpractice.

VictorianGovernmentoperationsthemselvesarealsoasignificantsourceofemissions.ThegovernmentshouldtakeresponsibilityforimprovingtheperformanceofitsownbuildingstockbyreinstatingtheGreenerGovernmentBuildingsprogramthatwasdiscontinuedbythepreviousgovernment.

TheEnvironmentandResourceEfficiencyPlans(EREP)program,runbytheEPAbutabolishedbythepreviousstategovernment,wasdeliveringhugebenefitstoindustry.Thelow-costschemewassavinglargeenergyandwaterusersapproximately$90millionintotalperyear.54Crucially,theprogramwasmandatory–deliveringefficiencysavingstocompaniesthatwouldnototherwiseconsiderenergyefficiency.MinisterNevilledefendedtheEREPschemeasthethenCoalitiongovernmentsoughttoabolishit,anditshouldnowbere-established.

Improvedefficiencycouldalsocuttransportemissions.Governmentfleetcarpurchasesshouldbehybridsorthemostefficientalternative.

The government should implement a comprehensive program to retrofit Victoria’s one million low-income households by 2025.

54‘EREPProgram–InterimResults,’EPAVictoria(2012),Publication1400.http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/our-work/publications/publication/2012/february/1400

Astheemissionsintensityoftheelectricitysectorimproves,electriccarswillbecomeabetterenvironmentaloption.Thegovernmentshouldalsointroducemandatoryfuelefficiencystandards,andcreateincentivesforconsumerstochoosemoreefficientcars(e.g.throughstampdutyandregistrationcharges).

Victoria’sfourlargecoal-firedpowerstationsareresponsibleforalmost50percentofthestate’semissions.ItisimpossibletomakeseriousinroadsintoVictoria’scarbonpollutionwithoutaddressingtheoperationofthesepowerstations.

Communitiesthatlivenearthesecoal-firedpowerstationsfaceunacceptablyhighcosts.AnalysisbyHarvardresearchersin2015foundthatairpollutionfromtheLatrobeValleycoalgeneratorscausesanannualhealthburdenof$660milliontothelocalcommunity.Thesocialcostofthegreenhousegasemissionswasestimatedat$2.8billionperyear.55TheHazelwoodminefireandothermining-relatedproblemssuchaslandsubsidence(sinkingoftheearthduetodisturbance)furtheraffectthecommunity.

Upgradesandretrofitstoourageingpowerstationswouldonlymakeasmalldifferencetotheiremissionsandarenotcost-effective.TheAustralianEnergyMarketOperatorhasidentifieda2000MWsurplusofgenerationcapacity,givingthecurrentVictorianGovernmentanimportantopportunitytobegintheplannedphase-outofcoal-firedelectricity.HazelwoodandYallournpowerstationsare1600and1480MWrespectively,sothereisnorisktothereliabilityofsupply–oneofthesepowerstationscouldberetiredimmediatelywithoutaffectingenergysecurity.

Unexpectedannouncementsinearly2015thatthesmallerAngleseaandPortAugustapowerstationswouldclosehavehighlightedtheneedtoplanforinevitableclosures.Neitheroftheseclosureswaspredictedorplanned,disruptinglocalcommunitiesespeciallyinPortAugusta.ThesuddenandunplannedclosureofoneofVictoria’s‘Big4’generatorswouldcreateevengreaterupheaval.

Fallingprofitsforcoalgeneratorsmeansthattherewillcontinuetobeclosures,eitherbecauseofcorporatedecisionstowalkawayfromunprofitableassets,orbecauseincreasingmaintenancecostsofageing

step 5Retire our dirtiest power stations

The unexpected announcements in early 2015 to close the smaller Anglesea and Port Augusta power stations have highlighted the need to plan for inevitable closures.

55‘CleaningupVictoria’spowersector:ThefullsocialcostofHazelwoodPowerStation,’JordanWard&MickPower,HarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment(2015).http://environmentvictoria.org.au/newsroom/report/cleaning-victoria%E2%80%99s-power-sector

plantswillleadtomajormalfunctionsorsafetyincidents.

Since2013,mostofthepowerstationstoretirehavebeenblackcoalplantswithhighermarginalcostsofproduction.Blackcoalplantshaveloweremissionsthanbrowncoalplants,sotheirclosurecouldleadtoanincreaseinemissionsifVictorianbrowncoalgeneratorsincreasetheiroutputinresponse.Perversely,thisiswhatappearstobehappeningatthemomentinthenationalelectricitymarket.

Toreducetheriskofsudden,disruptiveclosure,andtoensurethatcoalclosurehappensinawaythatleadstoareductioninemissions,theVictorianGovernmentshouldimplementamechanismthatprovidescertaintyaroundpowerstationclosuretimelines.Thiscouldtaketheformofemissionsperformancestandardsthatareconnectedtotheproposeddecarbonisationtarget.Themechanismshouldbedesignedtoensurethatthemostpollution-intensivepowerstationsarephasedoutfirst.

Asanessentialpartofasuccessfulphase-outplan,thestategovernmentalsoneedstotaketheleadinestablishingalternativeeconomicdevelopmentplansfortheLatrobeValleyincloseconsultationwiththelocalcommunity.AnyeconomicplanshouldaimtodiversifytheLatrobeValleyeconomyratherthanentrenchingfossilfuel-basedindustries.

Victoriatookmanybackwardsstepsonclimatechangeunderthepreviousstategovernment.Wenowhaveabsolutelynotimetolose.Ouremissionshavebeenrisingwhentheyneedtobefalling,andfallingrapidly.

Togetherwithproperlyfactoringinclimatechangeintoallgovernmentdecisions(asnotedinStep2),theVictorianGovernmentneedstocommittonomorebackwardsstepsbyrulingoutnewfossilfuelprojects.

Thegovernmentshouldmaintainthemoratoriumononshoreunconventionalgas.Gascannolongerbeviewedasanecessaryfuelwithinanorderlytransitiontorenewableenergy,andunconventionalgasextractionprocesseslikefrackingcarryunacceptableriskstoagriculturalproductivityandtheenvironmentalhealthofourpreciouslandandwaterresources.Further,connectingAustralia’seastcoastto

step 6Rule out new fossil fuel projects for Victoria

internationalgasmarketshasforcedupdomesticgasprices,makinggaslesscompetitiveasawayofgeneratingelectricity.

Disappointingly,andinapparentcontradictiontoitsstatedambitionstobeclimateleaders,theAndrewsGovernmenthasapprovedfournewcoalexplorationlicencesinGippsland.56Theseapprovals,togetherwithacoalretentionlicenceinsouthGippsland,createenormousuncertaintyforaffectedlandowners.MantleMining,therecipientoftheexplorationlicences,wantstodiganundergroundblackcoalminesoitcanexportcoaltoothercountriesforbothpowergenerationandsteel-making.57

TheAndrewsGovernmentneedstocorrectthisaberrationbyannouncingamoratoriumonallnewcoalprojectsinthestate.UNclimatechiefChristianaFiguereshasstatedthisexplicitly:“Thescienceisveryclear,thereisnospacefornewcoal.”58Newcoalprojectsarecompletelyincompatiblewithleadershiponclimatechange.

TheAndrewsGovernmenthasinheritedthreelegacycoalprojectsthatreceivedashareof$75minjointVictorian/federalpublicfundingunderthepreviousstategovernment.Theseprojects,fundedundertheAdvancedLigniteDemonstrationProgram,aimtofindnewusesforbrowncoal,withvariousprocessedcoalproductsprimarilyintendedforexport.Theeconomicsoftheseprojectswerequestionablein2012,59 andsincethenboththermalandmetallurgicalcoalhaveseenfurtherweakeningindemandandsignificantdeclinesinprice.60

Thesecompaniesaremakingarrangementstogetaninitialsupplyofcoalfromexistingmines,butnewprocessingplantscouldultimatelymeannewcoalminesintheLatrobeValley,furtheraddingtothehealthandsafetyburdenonthelocalcommunity.Asnotedabove,newcoalprojectsareinconsistentwithclaimstoclimateleadershipandmustnotbeallowedtoproceed.Governmentshouldwithdrawgrantstothesethreecompaniesattheearliestopportunity,withthemoneyre-directedtogrowingcleanjobsintheLatrobeValley.

SnowtownwindfarminSouthAustralia.

UN climate chief Christiana Figueres has stated explicitly: “The science is very clear, there is no space for new coal.”

56http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-grants-new-coal-exploration-licences-in-victoria-20150617-ghq35k.html

57http://www.latrobevalleyexpress.com.au/story/3168963/hydroelectric-project-just-window-dressing/

58http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-will-have-to-move-away-from-coal-un-climate-head-says-20150506-ggvfvz.html

59‘OverburdenedorUndermined?Victoria’sbrowncoal:Aneconomicperspective,’EconomistsatLarge,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria(2012).http://environmentvictoria.org.au/content/undermined-or-overburdened-victorias-brown-coal-economic-perspective

60Forexample:www.smh.com.au/business/markets/coal-prices-highly-unlikely-to-recover-in-2015-20150219-13iymh.html

Despitealimitedenvironmentalpolicyagendaaheadofthe2014Victorianelection,theAndrewsGovernmentismovingquickly,andhasmadeanumberofpositivestatementsindicatingambitiontoleadonclimatechangeandrenewableenergy.Importantpolicydevelopmentprocessesareunderway,withactionplansforrenewableenergyandenergyefficiencyexpectedbyNovember2015.TheClimate Change Act andtheEPAarealsobothunderreview.

Theseprocessesneedtoaimhighandtheoutcomesneedtobeimplementedpromptly,effectivelyandwithsufficientfundingandresources.AllofthesereviewsareduetobecompletedbeforetheAndrewsGovernment’ssecondstatebudget,dueinMay2016,whichloomsasalitmustestofthegovernment’scommitmenttoitsclimateleadershipaspirations.Thereisnomoretimetowaste.

Byrapidlyrollingoutnewpolicies,theVictoriangovernmentcanbeginthedecarbonisationoftheVictorianeconomy,dramaticallyexpandinvestmentandinnovationinrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency,andcreatethousandsofjobs.TheParisclimatesummitattheendof2015isaperfectopportunityforPremierAndrewstoannouncehisgovernment’splantodelivermeaningfulemissionsreductions,helpingVictoriaandtheworldavoidtheworstofclimatechangewhilebenefittingfromacleanjobsbonanza.

Overthecomingmonthsandyears,EnvironmentVictoriawilltracktheprogressoftheAndrewsGovernmentandfuturestategovernmentsagainstthesixstepstoleadershipthatwehaveoutlinedinthisreport.

05conclusion

ClimateleadershipwouldseeVictoriadrivedeepcutstocarbonpollutionanddeliverhighlevelsofrenewableenergy,investmentandnewjobsbeforethistermofgovernmentends.ItwouldensurethatthemostvulnerableVictoriansareprotectedfromextremeweatherandareactivelycontributingtoclimatesolutions.ItwouldsetanewbenchmarkforclimateactioninAustralia,demonstratingsuccessandgarneringstrongcommunitysupport.Mostofall,realclimateleadershipwouldgiveVictoriansasenseofpridethattheirstate–themostculturallyprogressiveinthecountry–isfacingthisdiabolicalchallengewithabold,innovativeandambitiousplanforthefuture.

CHAPTER 05conclusion – CONTINUED

Our environment, our future - ALP pre-election environment policyLaborwill:

establishthe$20millionNewEnergyJobsFundtoencourageinvestmentintherenewablessectorandfocusonthedevelopmentoftechnologyforthegenerationandstorageofcleanenergy,suchasnewbladetechnologyandadvancedsolarenergy

reducethedwellingbufferzoneforwindprojectsfrom2kmto1km

reviewlegislationandprogramstocommittoanachievablecarbonemissionsreductiontarget

provide‘fairaccess’togridforrenewableprojects

re-opentheHazelwoodminefireinquirytofocusontheissueofminerehabilitationasadirectresultofourcampaign

refocustheroleofSustainabilityVictoriatoassistcommunitieswithclimatechange

investigateimprovingthefuelefficiencyofgovernmentfleetcars

commissionamajorpublicinquiryintotheEPA.

Laboralsocommittedto:

askingtheEssentialServicesCommissiontoinquireintothetruevaluetothegridofdistributedgeneration

What the ALP promised prior to the 2014 Victorian election

06appendix

ensuringthatenergyretailerscannotdiscriminateagainstrooftopsolarcustomersbychargingextrasupplyfees

providingfinancialsupportforcommunityrenewableenergyprojectsinWoodendandNewstead.

The 2014 Victorian ALP State PlatformOnclimatechange,Laborwill:

ensurethatVictoriaistheleadingAustralianstateindealingwithandrespondingtoclimatechange.Thisincludesfocusingonemissionsreduction,utilisingtargets,implementingenergyefficiencymeasures,creatingaGreenJobsActionPlan

revisegreenhouseemissionreductiontargetsandpursueacomprehensivestrategytoachievethem,includinganewGreenJobsActionPlanandastrengthenedClimate Change Act

legislatetoallowotherlocalCouncilstoreplicatetheCityofMelbourne’s1200Buildingsprogramtohelpcommercialbuildingownersfinanceenergyefficiencyretrofits

supportmandatoryminimumnationalstandardsforallmajorappliances

assessgovernmentfinancialcontributionstomajorprojectsagainstecologicallysustainabledevelopmentcriteriaandmonitoragainstenvironmentalbenchmarks

expandsupportforalternativestocommutingbycarsuchastheuseoffreetransitlanes,car-pooling,morecar-parkingatrailstations,limitsoncentralcityparkingandimprovedaccessibilityforpedestrians

introducemoreenergyefficienturbandesignbasedaroundmixed-usetowncentres

expandgovernmentprogramstoreducedemandforenergybyhouseholds,businessesandgovernmentdepartments,suchastheVictorianEnergyEfficiencyTarget

bettermanageVictoria’svegetationcover,includingworkingwithlandholdersandfederalandlocalgovernmentstoreducenativevegetationclearanceratesandpromoterevegetationandcarbonfarmingasameansofabsorbingcarbondioxide

CHAPTER 06appendix – CONTINUED

continuetoreducewasteproductionandenergyusebyindustrybylinkingthereductionofgreenhouseemissionstoEPAapprovals

ensurethatallsectionsofsocietyparticipateinthereductionofgreenhouseemissions.

Onenergyefficiency,Laborwill:

aimtoachieveanew‘OneMillionStars’goaltoimprovethecumulativestarratingofallVictorianhomesbyonemillionadditionalstarratingpoints

achievethisthrougharangeofmeasuresincludingincentivesformoreefficientappliancesandbuildingmaterials,informationforbuyersandrenters,strategicfundingandregulatorysupport

consideratarget,andsupportprograms,forimprovingtheenergyefficiencystandardsofexistinghomes;

Reformminimumstandardsforrentalpropertiestoimprovewaterandenergyefficiencystandards

activelypromoteinformationabouttheenergyratingofhomesthatare sold or leased

supportprogramsandincentivestoimprovetheenergyefficiencyofpublicandsocialhousing

investigateinnovativefundingmodelsandincentivestoassistresidentialtenantsandlandlordstoimprovetheenergyefficiencyofhomesandtoassistwiththeinstallationofsolarphotovoltaicrooftopsystems

developstrategiestosupportfamiliesandlowincomehouseholdstosaveontheirenergybills

ensurethatexistingNoInterestLoansSchemesareexpandedtocoverenergyefficiencyproductswithhigherupfrontcosts

assesstheviabilityofliftingtheminimumenergyefficiencystandardfornewhomesandmajorrenovations

improveVictoria’sproportionofinsulatedhomes,whichcurrentlyranksfourthinAustralia.

CHAPTER 06appendix – CONTINUED

Onrenewableenergy,Laborwill:

implementaVictorianRenewableEnergyActionPlantoattractVictoria’sshareofthe$36billiondollarsofinvestmentinrenewableenergiesforecasttooccurinAustraliaby2020

completeastrategicassessmentoftheappropriatetimeframeforachievingamajorexpansionofrenewableenergyinVictoriaoncethefederalgovernment’sreviewoftheREThasconcluded

reviewtheanti-windfarmplanninglawstoensuretheypromoteinvestmentandjobs,arebasedoncrediblescienceandreflectcommunityexpectations

createIndustryDevelopmentPlanstosupportthegrowthofbio-energy,marineenergy,geothermalenergyandenergystoragetechnologies

compensatehouseholdsandbusinessesthatprovideexcesscleanenergytothegrid

supportschoolstoinstallsolarpanelstoreducecostofpowerandwatertankstomeettheneedsofkitchengardensandschoolgroundsfacilities.

Onmanaginggovernment’sownemissions,Laborwill:

establishtheVictorianGovernmentasaleaderintheadoptionofinnovativeandpracticalemissionsreductionpracticesforitsownassetsanddepartments

buildontheknowledgeandskillsdevelopedbyEPA,whichhasalreadygonecarbonneutral,andhaveallgovernmentdepartmentsandagenciesgocarbonneutralby2020

reinstatetheroleoftheEPAinregulatinggreenhousegasesandmonitoringemissionreductionstrategiesandtheimplementationofrenewabletechnologies

expand,wherecosteffective,supportforretro-fittingofgovernmentbuildingstoimproveenergyefficiency,suchassolarhotwatersystemsinpublichousing

Monitorandreviewperformancerequirementsongreenhousegasemissionsandenergyuseforallstateandlocalgovernmentoperations

promoteworkplaceinvolvementintacklingclimatechangebyprovidingforemployeerepresentationonenvironmentalissues.ThiswillbedonethroughtheestablishmentofGreenhouseCommitteeswhereemployersandmanagersworkcooperativelywithworkersandunionstoidentifyandthenimplementwaysofreducingtheir‘carbonfootprint’.

Tosupportcommunities,Laborwill:

restore,updateandstrengthentheClimate Change Act

maintainSustainabilityVictoriatopromoteincentivesandprovideprogramsforenergyconservation,alternativeenergyandreductionsingreenhouseemissions.

Onminingandmineralresources,Laborwill:

introduceacomprehensivestrategiclanduseframeworkthatprotectslandwhichsustainssensitiveruralandenvironmentallanduses

requireproductionofanenvironmentalimpactstatement,basedonclearlegislativecriteria,asaprerequisiteforobtainingalicenceforextraction,miningormajorexploration

maintaintheabilityfortheMinistertoexemptcertainareasfromexplorationand/ormininglicences

maintainabanonhydraulicfracturingduringandpriortoestablishingaParliamentaryInquiryintothisandotherminingprocessesandissuesrelatingtounconventionalgasexplorationandmining.

Environment Victoria will be tracking the implementation of these policies and the ALP’s progress towards taking the six steps to climate leadership over the coming months and years.

Image Credits:Page17:FlickruserEnvironmentalDefenceCanadalicensedunderCC.Page19:FlickruserStuartMontgomerylicensedunderCC.Page23:FlickruserScottishGovernmentlicensedunderCC.Page 28: Photo courtesy of Brotherhood of St Laurence/RossBird.Page32:PhotocourtesyofCameronWheatley.Page34:FlickruserEdmundTselicensedunderCC.

Cover&Page6:FlickruserIndigoSkiesPhotographylicensedunderCreativeCommons(CC).Contents:PhotocourtesyofAccionaEnergy.Page5:FlickruserWalmartlicensedunderCC.Page13:PhotocourtesyofAccionaEnergy.Page15top:FlickeruserUSDepartmentoftheInteriorlicensedunderCC.Page15bottom:FlickruserJohnWeisslicensedunderCC.

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