Seven Myths Slides

8/4/2019 Seven Myths Slides

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Seven Myths of Risk – an introduction to risk and the precautionary principle

Sven Ove Hanssson

Philosophy Unit

Royal Institute of Technology

Stockholm

The concept of risk

an unwanted event which may or may not occur.1.

The concept of risk

an unwanted event which may or may not occur.the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.

The concept of risk

the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not

occur.

The concept of risk

occur.

the statistical expectation value of unwanted events which

may or may not occur.

The concept of risk

occur.

the statistical expectation value of unwanted events which

may or may not occur.the fact that a decision is made under conditions of known

probabilities (“decision under risk”)

The first myth of risk

“Risk” must have a single, well-

defined meaning.

Risk analysis

risk = probability × disutility

The second myth of risk

The severity of risks should be

judged according to probability-weighted averages of the severity of

their outcomes.

Values of (deterministic)

outcomes

Proba- bilities

Risk assessment

Values of (deterministic)

outcomes

Proba- bilities

Rights

Consent

Equity

Intensions

Agency

Risk assessment

The third myth of risk

Decisions on risk should be made

by weighing total risks against totalbenefits.

$RISK RISK $

A l l o w e d

N o t a l l o

RISK RISK $$

Ethical risk analysis

Respect every person’s prima facieright not to be exposed to risks!

The fourth myth of risk

Decisions on risk should be taken

by experts rather than by laymen.

The fifth myth of risk

Risk-reducing measures in all

different sectors of society shouldbe decided according to the same

standards.

Railways

Workplaces

Air traffic Nuclear energy

Risk calculus

Mammography

Railways

Workplaces

Air traffic Nuclear energy

Risk calculus

Mammography

The sixth myth of risk

Risk assessments should be based

only on well-established scientificfacts.

DataCorpus

DataCorpus Policy

DataPolicyCorpus

The seventh myth of risk

If there is a serious risk, then

scientists will find it if they look for it.

A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5%

B 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%

A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5%

B 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%

C 10.0% ⇒ 10.5%

A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5% Detectable

Individually

indetectableB 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%

Completely

indetectableC 10.0% ⇒ 10.5%

1 10-1 10 10-7 10 10-9-8-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6

Detectable

1 10-1 10-2 10-3 10 10-7 10 10-9-8-4 10-5 10-6

Accepted

1 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10 10-9-8

Detectable Accepted

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