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Seven Myths of Risk – an introduction to risk and the precautionary principle
Sven Ove Hanssson
Philosophy Unit
Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm
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The concept of risk
an unwanted event which may or may not occur.1.
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The concept of risk
an unwanted event which may or may not occur.the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
1.2.
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The concept of risk
an unwanted event which may or may not occur.the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not
occur.
1.2.
3.
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The concept of risk
an unwanted event which may or may not occur.the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not
occur.
the statistical expectation value of unwanted events which
may or may not occur.
1.2.
3.
4.
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The concept of risk
an unwanted event which may or may not occur.the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not
occur.
the statistical expectation value of unwanted events which
may or may not occur.the fact that a decision is made under conditions of known
probabilities (“decision under risk”)
1.2.
3.
4.
5.
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The first myth of risk
“Risk” must have a single, well-
defined meaning.
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Risk analysis
risk = probability × disutility
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The second myth of risk
The severity of risks should be
judged according to probability-weighted averages of the severity of
their outcomes.
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Values of (deterministic)
outcomes
Proba- bilities
Risk assessment
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Values of (deterministic)
outcomes
Proba- bilities
Rights
Consent
Equity
Intensions
Agency
Risk assessment
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The third myth of risk
Decisions on risk should be made
by weighing total risks against totalbenefits.
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$RISK RISK $
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A l l o w e d
N o t a l l o
w e d
RISK RISK $$
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Ethical risk analysis
Respect every person’s prima facieright not to be exposed to risks!
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The fourth myth of risk
Decisions on risk should be taken
by experts rather than by laymen.
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The fifth myth of risk
Risk-reducing measures in all
different sectors of society shouldbe decided according to the same
standards.
W k l
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Railways
Workplaces
Air traffic Nuclear energy
Risk calculus
Mammography
W k l
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Railways
Workplaces
Air traffic Nuclear energy
Risk calculus
Mammography
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The sixth myth of risk
Risk assessments should be based
only on well-established scientificfacts.
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Data
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DataCorpus
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DataCorpus Policy
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DataPolicyCorpus
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The seventh myth of risk
If there is a serious risk, then
scientists will find it if they look for it.
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A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5%
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A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5%
B 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%
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A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5%
B 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%
C 10.0% ⇒ 10.5%
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A 0.0% ⇒ 0.5% Detectable
Individually
indetectableB 1.0% ⇒ 1.5%
Completely
indetectableC 10.0% ⇒ 10.5%
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1 10-1 10 10-7 10 10-9-8-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6
Detectable
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1 10-1 10-2 10-3 10 10-7 10 10-9-8-4 10-5 10-6
Accepted
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1 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10 10-9-8
Detectable Accepted
