Session 4.3 . Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Session 4.3. Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Learning Objectives

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After this session, participants should be able to: Explain the importance and value of identifying the opportunities & threats (shocks) likely to affect food & nutrition security List and apply four key elements – i.e. frequency, probability of occurrence, expected timing of occurrence, and severity or benefit scale - to analyse opportunities & shocks

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Where are we?

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EFSA ProcessAdapt conceptual framework & objectivesPrepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sourcesCollect, review secondary dataCollect primary dataConduct situation analysisConduct forecast analysisAnalyse response optionsMake response recommendationsPrepare report

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Forecasting is, by definition,

uncertain requires assumptions

– and good judgment

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Forecasting process1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to

affect food & nutrition security

2. Develop scenario(s) describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance

3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario

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1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 1

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Opportunities:

Events that will likely improve the situation

Can be natural or man-made

Shocks:

Events with likely negative impact

Can be natural or man-made

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Examples: opportunities and shocks

Opportunities Shocks

Natural Return of rains LocustsDrought

Man-made

Peace agreementSuspension of

trade restrictions

ConflictImposition of

trade restrictions

Some examples of opportunities and shocks in countries of participants?

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Analyzing opportunities & shocks: 4 elements

Frequency

Probability of occurrence

Expected timing of occurrence

Severity or benefit scale

Low? Average?

High?

Recurrent?Persistent?Occasional?

Reasonablypredictable?

unpredictable?

Low?Average?

High?

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Need to disaggregate Opportunities / shocks affect different groups differently

Disaggregation by sex, age, health status, ethnicity or other relevant characteristic

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Exercise 4.3.a. Analysing Opportunities & ShocksIdentify an opportunity or crisis that could affect your country:

Analyze by:

1. Frequency (recurrent? persistent? occasional?)

2. Probability of occurrence (low-average-high?)

3. Expected time of occurrence (predictable or not?)

4. Severity of impact on food and nutrition security (low-average-high?)

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2. Develop scenarios describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 2

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Note on scenariosWhat is a scenario?A description of the situation that could occur if certain things happen

It documents assumptions on how the situation might evolve

Why elaborate scenarios?

To predict evolution of food & nutrition security situation and orient response options analysis

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Which scenarios? How many?Consider: Opportunities and shocks: dominant and

secondary events How will these affect food security, lives and

livelihoods? Most likely scenario and worst case scenario

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3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario 3

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Scenarios & affected groups

Take “most likely” scenario; relate it to current situation

Determine if situation of food insecure – of at risk groups – will change in this scenario (improve or deteriorate)

Identify food secure and not-at-risk groups whose situation is expected to deteriorate in the most likely scenario

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Estimate numbers of food insecure in the most likely scenarioBegin with: Number of HHs currently food insecure and whose lives

and livelihoods are at riskAdd (+): Number of HHs who will become food insecure and at

greater riskDeduct (-): Number of HHs who are currently food insecure and

whose lives and livelihoods are at risk whose situation is expected to improve

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Exercise 4.3.b. Developing Scenarios Each Working Group: consider the opportunities & shocks

for your case 1 hour + 1 hour discussion

Scenario & probability

(1-5; 5 = most likely)Period Opportunity

or shockGroups most likely affected

Scenario A

Scenario B