Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Session 4.3. Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Learning Objectives

2

After this session, participants should be able to: Explain the importance and value of identifying the opportunities & threats (shocks) likely to affect food & nutrition security List and apply four key elements – i.e. frequency, probability of occurrence, expected timing of occurrence, and severity or benefit scale - to analyse opportunities & shocks

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Where are we?

3

EFSA ProcessAdapt conceptual framework & objectivesPrepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sourcesCollect, review secondary dataCollect primary dataConduct situation analysisConduct forecast analysisAnalyse response optionsMake response recommendationsPrepare report

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme4

Forecasting is, by definition,

uncertain requires assumptions

– and good judgment

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme5

Forecasting process1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to

affect food & nutrition security

2. Develop scenario(s) describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance

3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme6

1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 1

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme7

Opportunities:

Events that will likely improve the situation

Can be natural or man-made

Shocks:

Events with likely negative impact

Can be natural or man-made

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme8

Examples: opportunities and shocks

Opportunities Shocks

Natural Return of rains LocustsDrought

Man-made

Peace agreementSuspension of

trade restrictions

ConflictImposition of

trade restrictions

Some examples of opportunities and shocks in countries of participants?

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme9

Analyzing opportunities & shocks: 4 elements

Frequency

Probability of occurrence

Expected timing of occurrence

Severity or benefit scale

Low? Average?

High?

Recurrent?Persistent?Occasional?

Reasonablypredictable?

unpredictable?

Low?Average?

High?

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme10

Need to disaggregate Opportunities / shocks affect different groups differently

Disaggregation by sex, age, health status, ethnicity or other relevant characteristic

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme11

Exercise 4.3.a. Analysing Opportunities & ShocksIdentify an opportunity or crisis that could affect your country:

Analyze by:

1. Frequency (recurrent? persistent? occasional?)

2. Probability of occurrence (low-average-high?)

3. Expected time of occurrence (predictable or not?)

4. Severity of impact on food and nutrition security (low-average-high?)

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme12

2. Develop scenarios describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 2

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme13

Note on scenariosWhat is a scenario?A description of the situation that could occur if certain things happen

It documents assumptions on how the situation might evolve

Why elaborate scenarios?

To predict evolution of food & nutrition security situation and orient response options analysis

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme14

Which scenarios? How many?Consider: Opportunities and shocks: dominant and

secondary events How will these affect food security, lives and

livelihoods? Most likely scenario and worst case scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme15

3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario 3

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme16

Scenarios & affected groups

Take “most likely” scenario; relate it to current situation

Determine if situation of food insecure – of at risk groups – will change in this scenario (improve or deteriorate)

Identify food secure and not-at-risk groups whose situation is expected to deteriorate in the most likely scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme17

Estimate numbers of food insecure in the most likely scenarioBegin with: Number of HHs currently food insecure and whose lives

and livelihoods are at riskAdd (+): Number of HHs who will become food insecure and at

greater riskDeduct (-): Number of HHs who are currently food insecure and

whose lives and livelihoods are at risk whose situation is expected to improve

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme18

Exercise 4.3.b. Developing Scenarios Each Working Group: consider the opportunities & shocks

for your case 1 hour + 1 hour discussion

Scenario & probability

(1-5; 5 = most likely)Period Opportunity

or shockGroups most likely affected

Scenario A

Scenario B