Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update

Rob KeefeWHR

National Real Estate Update

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

“We are a specialized relocation company solely focused on advancing the lives of our clients’ employees by delivering high-touch relocation services that are customized to the culture and business practices of our clients”

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Background• President of regional real estate brokerage • Real estate development company• Supervised title agency • President of mortgage broker/bank• Active in organized real estate

– WRA Chair (2012)– NAR Director/Taxation Committee

4

5

6

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Agenda

• National real estate market conditions

• Market issues

• Brokerage trends

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

33%

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Market Issues

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Top 20 Markets for Drop in Listing Count (Year over Year)

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Inventory Compression• California down to 2.6 months inventory, a

40% drop from 2012

• Sacramento at 1.1 months inventory

• Seattle (King County) at 1.4 months inv a 50% drop from 2012

• Minneapolis at 3.0 months

• Washington DC less than 2 months

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

One cause of listing drop

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

20 MSA’s with highest average listing age

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

A tale of two cities

• Sacramento, CA

• Median listing age = 27 days

• Y/Y change in listing count = -67.2%

• Months inventory = 1.1

• Median listing age = 149 days

• Y/Y change in listing cout = -10.6%

• Months inventory = 5+

• Asheville, NC

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Tight credit continues to weigh on market

• 37% of mortgages have >20% down payment• 2001-04 approx 40% of borrowers had FICO

>740• In 2012 this is over 50% overall, over 70% for

FNMA/FHLMC• Essentially no sub-prime, Alt-A market• NAR estimates deficit of 500-700k sales

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Appraisals continue to kill deals

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Other Federal issues

• Mortgage Interest Deductibility

• FHA solvency

• Short sale expediting

• Future of GSE’s

• General fiscal chaos and uncertainty

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

NAR’s View

• Upside … Credit Availability– Housing recovery so far even with tight credit– What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up?– Counter-cyclical housing policy … lower FHA premiums and lower GSE g-fees

• Downside … Washington Policy– QRM 20% down payment requirement?– Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment

and commercial loans– Trim mortgage interest deduction?– Capital gains tax on home sale?

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Brokerage Developments

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Advancing > Lives > Forward >

Summary• National market in recovery• Listing shortage in certain markets• Federal policies are putting damper on market• Appraisals continue to be challenging• Revolution in consumer-directed real estate data• Agents beginning to be put under microscope