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ANNALS, AAPSS, 550, March 1997
NAFTAand Chiapas
By PAUL RICH
ABSTRACT:exico is now plagued by guerrilla uprisings in itspoorest states, the most theatrical and celebrated of which is that ofthe Zapatista National LiberationArmy in Chiapas under the lead-
ership of the enigmatic, pipe-smokingSubcomandanteMarcos. Therebels have made the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA)a focus of their fury and have cleverlyused the Internet toair their complaints.While free trade certainly is contributingto the
economic problems of the Mexican underclass, the depopulating ofrural areas and growthofthe cities is an almost inevitable trend thateven the most dramatic gestures by Marcos and his followers are
unlikely to postpone.NAFTAhas become a scapegoatforthe modern-ization of Mexico.
Paul Rich is Titular Professor of International Relations and History, University ofthe Americas, Puebla, Mexico, and fellow, Hoover Institution on War,Revolution and
Peace,Stanford University.
For tenyears,
he was a senior adviser in the ArabianGulfsheikhdom of Qatar Active in Harvard alumni affairs, he is governor of Harris
Manchester College at Oxford University, a fellow of the Royal Historical Society, chair
of the endowment committee of theAmerican Culture Association, and fellow or trustee
of more than two dozen learned societies.
72
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NAFTAAND CHIAPAS 73
THEsigningof the NorthAmeri-can Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA)has a close
relationshipto
the troubles in the southern Mexicanstate of Chiapas that began in Janu-
ary 1994 and that are remarkableforthe notoriety of the ZapatistaI guer-rillas' leader, the enigmatic Subco-mandante Marcos,and forhis cleveruse ofthe media.2Theuprisingbythe
Ej6rcitoZapatista de Liberaci6nNa-cional(ZapatistaNational Liberation
Army,or EZLN)has had a substan-tial effect on Mexico'spost-NAFTAambitions.3
However,Chiapasis a reaction notto one crisis in Mexicobut to layers ofcrises. Oneset ofproblemshas partlybeen created by NAFTA. The freemarket initiatives, privatizationschemes, andNAFTA-sponsoredow-
ering of trade barriers have meantthat the poorin Mexico,particularly
1. So called after EmilianoZapata,guer-rilla fighter during the Mexican Revolutionwho was assassinated in 1919.
2. The use of the Internet by Marcos is
especially notable. His press releases andthoseof his followerscan be foundonChiapas-L, which is an open, unmoderateddiscussionlist concerning he conflict n the state of Chia-
pas, Mexico,and its ongoingstatus. New pa-personthe subjectarewelcome.Press releasesare also covered.Chiapas-L s an activist list,including efforts to help Mexico's ndigenouscommunities, social service, activism, fund-
raising, and so on. The list focuses on the
ZapatistaNationalLiberationArmy, he peaceprocess,negotiations,Chiapas,humanrights,and the like. Tosubscribeto Chiapas-L,sendan E-mail to majordomo@profmexis.sar.netwith no topic, but in the body of the mes-
sage, simply write "subscribe Chiapas"with yourname. "Chiapas-LDiscussionList,"H-LatAm@h-net.msu.edu,7 July 1996.
3. Deedee Halleck, "ZapatistasOn-line,"
Report on the Americas (North American Con-
gress on Latin America),28(2):30(Sept.-Oct.1994).
the campesinos (peasants), face di-rect competitionfrom Canadian andAmerican
industryand
agribusi-ness.4Any reply by Mexicanfarmersandbusinesspeople to the challengesof NAFTA nvolves the almost impos-sible task of finding the money tointroduce new equipment and tech-
nology, ncluding computers.Contrary o what manyAmericans
believed when NAFTAwas being de-bated-that Mexicans would steal
Americanjobs-there are signs that,thanks to lack of capital, Mexican
jobs are being lost to the better-trained and technologically empow-ered American and Canadian labormarket. The Chiapas uprising oc-curred partly because of the threatthat indigenous peoples and peas-ants perceive coming from NAFTA
and related changes.5
4. "Theprivatizationschemes of the Sali-nas government dismantled a large part ofMexico'seconomy and concentrated wealthand power n what the presidentconsidered obe big, competitive conglomerates for our
[Mexico's]ntry into the world scene. The los-ers were small- and medium-sizebusinesses,lackingcredit,andMexicansocietyas a whole,lacking the publicinvestments that had once
had repercussionsacross the whole economicboard,stimulating furtherpayments,employ-ment, production,and a healthier balance of
payments."Carlos Fuentes, A New ime forMexico(New York:Farrar,Straus & Giroux,1996),pp. 78-79.
5. "InChiapas, an entire campesinocul-ture felt threatened."Ibid., p. 92. The first
message to goout fromChiapaswas a stirringone:"January1, 1994.... We are the inheri-tors and the true builders of our nation. The
dispossessed,we are millions, and we therebycall uponour brothersand sisters to join this
struggle as the only path, so that we will notdie ofhungerdue to the insatiableambitionofa 70-yeardictatorship ed bya gangof traitorsthat represents the most reactionarygroups. ... To the people of Mexico: We the
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74 THE ANNALSOF THEAMERICANACADEMY
Statements about this are easilyobtainable because the leader of the
Chiapas revolt,Subcomandante
Marcos, is a prolific writer.6 Once
written, the letters and essays areoften "on the Internet by the next
morning."'Indeed, he has been pur-sued electronically by the Mexicangovernment, troubled at being "a
helpless victim of the information
age"8and seeking to get its counter-
insurgency position out on the Net.9
men and women, full and free, are consciousthat the war that we have declared s our last
resort,but also a just one. ... JOINTHE IN-SURGENT FORCES OF THE ZAPATISTANATIONAL LIBERATIONARMY."Halleck,"ZapatistasOn-line,"p. 30.
6. "Cognoscenti peakofover 400 commu-
niques and letters in a year that, at this writ-
ing, still has 100 days left. My eyes have seena diskette."John Ross,"TheEZLN,a History:
Miracles, Coyunturas, Communiques," inShadowsofTender ury:TheLettersand Com-
muniques of SubcomandanteMarcos and the
ZapatistaArmyofNational Liberation, rans.Frank Bardackeet al. (NewYork:MonthlyRe-view Press, 1995),p. 13.
7. Ibid.8. Andres Oppenheimer, Bordering on
Chaos: Guerrillas, Stockbrokers,Politicians,and Mexico's Road to Prosperity (Boston:Little, Brown& Company,1996),p. 216.
9. The claim has beenmadethat "there Sa whole section of gobernaci6n[the depart-ment of the interior]that spendsall daymoni-
toring lists such as Mexico2000 and trying tointerferewith the freediscussion of Mexicoonthe Internet generally."R. C. Whalen, "Mex-ico2000 Discussion List," mexico2000@mep-d.org, 3 July 1996. Some Mexican discussionlists that had used Mexican servers were infact relocated out of fear of governmentmed-
dling.Ibid."Thereare 120centersoftelephone
espionage nstalledin theprincipalcities ofthecountry.Theespionagecenters areoperated na coordinatedeffortbytheAttorneyGeneralofthe Mexican Republic. . . . These espionagecenters are staffed and operated by dozensof
operators that call themselves 'gamas,' 'te-
colotes,'or 'gaviotas'.... Back in Monterrey,
The Internet attack by the rebelson the legitimacy of the Mexicangov-
ernmentand its free market
policiesis a reminder that Carlos Salinaswon or stole the 1988 presidentialelection after a supposed computerfailure attributed to overloaded cir-cuits and "atmospheric conditions,"1oand then claimed to have put Mexico
permanently on the high road eco-
nomically. Much of the Internetrhetoric is anti-NAFTA,directed at
the allegedlack ofcompassionshownby the free traders."1
The Chiapas uprising has neverbeen aboutultimate military success
by the insurgents since even the in-
ept Mexican army could overpowerthem in any sustained operations.Rather, it is, in respects, a massive
publicity campaign directed against
neoliberalism, with NAFTA as thebogeyman.12Withits use of E-mail, itis the first postmodern revolution-
postmodern accordingto no less an
authority than the celebrated Mexi-can historian LorenzoMeyer.13It is a
the listeningcenter is located in the Manches-ter Building and carries the nickname 'LaCueva' thecave).In room301 of that building,
the listening devices operate 24 hours a day.The Manchester Building is located at 2110
IgnacioMoronesPrietoAvenue n the centerofthe city.""Southof the BorderDown Mexico
Way,"Unclassified: QuarterlyPublication ofthe Associationof National SecurityAlumni,no. 34, p. 3 (Fall 1995).
10. DouglasW.Payne,"Salinastroika:Lessthan Meets the Eye,"National Interest,p. 47(Winter 1994-95).
11.Halleck,"ZapatistasOn-line,"p. 32.
12. Numerous World Wide Web sitesand lists have developed to plot the for-tunes of Chiapas. See the lanic gopher,lanic.utexas.edu,at the Universityof Texas.
13. Quoted n LucyConger,"Mexico:Zapa-tista Thunder,"CurrentHistory, 93(581):117(Mar.1994)."'Postmodern' s an idea that the
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76 THEANNALS OF THEAMERICANACADEMY
write about a countrywhere one couldnotonlynot trust whatpeoplesaid,butwasn'teven surewhetherpeoplewerewho they were supposedto be?"21
Despite denials, however,there isa great deal of evidence that he isRafael Sebastian Guill6n, a onetime
university professor. ProfessorGuill6n's disappearance coincideswith Marcos'sappearanceandwould
help accountforwhy he is accused of
being in a time warp, a Marxist from
the 1960sin BananaRepublic-tailoredfatigues who is fighting not for de-
mocracy but against capitalism andfor a one-party proletarian state.22
Curiously, he rebel leaders have Ma-sonicconnections,'so apparently ome
guerrillasare Marxist Masons '
21. Ibid.,pp. 265-66.22. Ibid.,p. 44. Muchofwhat Marcossays
is reminiscent of the "guerrilla-intellectualwork"of the dependencistas supportingrevo-lution as an alternativetocapitalism,polemicsthat donot seem to take into accountwhat has
happened since the collapse of the SovietUnion. See Gabriel A. Almond,A DisciplineDivided: Schoolsand Sects in Political Science
(NewburyPark,CA:Sage, 1990),pp. 229-44.23. AboveMarcos s the even moremyste-
rious Commander-in-Chief German, pre-sumed to be FernandoYdnez.With the rise in
the popularityof Marcos,German has gonefurther into the shadows,but there are thosewho think that he remains the ultimate
authority.The son of a Monterreydoctor,hisfather and grandfatherwere Freemasonsand
according o his brother,"Eachofus, when weturned fourteen,joined the Hope and Frater-
nity Association, a Masonic lodge where welearned to speak in publicand get involved in
community affairs."Oppenheimer,Borderingon Chaos,p. 254.
24. The Masons tied to the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) are not radicals.The notoriousdinner of23 Feb. 1993,at whichPresidentCarlos Salinas solicitedgifts of $25million each from a groupofbusinessmen whowere benefiting from his economic policies,was describedas "aMasonicaffair"--which,at
Whoeverhe is, as an image-makerleader Marcos s miles ahead ofMexi-can President Zedillo, sometimescalled El Nerd or Agua al Tiempo(waterat roomtemperature,after hisfavorite drink).25Marcos has at-
tempted to fight fire with fire, in thesense that he providesan alternative
leadership that is perceived as more
exciting and more interesting thanZedillo's inept administration. ThatMarcos has tried to project a strong
image at this time in Mexico'shistoryconfirms that Mexico still suffersfrom a legacy of personalismo, thatthe perceptionof one's power and ofwhom one knows is more importantthan what one knows. Personalismowill be put ahead ofthe law,and from
personalismo comes caudillismo
least in attempted secrecy,if not in ritual, itwas. Ibid.,p. 107. The involvementofMasonryis not entirely implausible in an already im-
plausible scenario, as there is evidence thatMexican Freemasonry has been an educa-tional system in Mexico as well as a secretritualistic society and has played a part in
training young men for political leadership.See Paul Rich and Guillermo de los Reyes,"Freemasonry'sEducational Role in Mexico,"Hanna Papers in Education, Ed-94-2 (Stan-
ford,CA:StanfordUniversity,Hoover Institu-tion, 1994). See also idem, "EducatingtheMexican and American Presidents,"Hoover
PapersinInternationalStudies,1-95-12 Stan-ford,CA:StanfordUniversity,HooverInstitu-
tion, 1995).25. Zedillo,who is poker-facedand wooden
and about as lackingin charisma as it is pos-sible to be, comes froman extremelyhumble
background.Ironically,t may be that Marcoshas much more of a claim to be middle class
than Zedillo.At the present time (Aug. 1996),Zedillo s perceivedas waveringin his commit-ment to reform. He has gone to Tabasco to
appearapprovinglywith the governor,Robert
Madrazo, who was charged with criminalfraudbyZedillo'sattorneygeneral.All chargeshave been dropped.
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NAFTAANDCHIAPAS 77
(authoritarianism).26 n rural statessuch as Chiapas, it is at its mostvirulent. This caudillismo
dependson the controlof information and the
suppressionofspeech,onbriberyandon patronage.Marcosthoroughlyun-derstands that image is crucial andthat the rebelswill win via the media,not by arms, and will win by havinga devil-neoliberalism and NAFTA.
To understand why Marcos hasbeen able to make NAFTAan issue in
his attempted revolution requiressome backgroundin Mexican politi-cal history. The country'sdominant
politicalforce,the Institutional Revo-
lutionary Party (PRI), is not a partyin the American sense but more of a
family firm and social insuranceschemethat has co-optedhundredsofthousands if not millions of support-
ers by handouts.27 Decaying, it pre-sides over a country where recollec-tions of President Salinas's boastsaboutthe fruits of NAFTAand Presi-dent Zedillo's1994 election promisesto provideforthe "well-being oryourfamily" and advertisements of him-self as a leader who "knowshow to do
it"producehollow laughter.28
ROSYFUTUREPOSTPONED
The Chiapasuprising is a demandfor enfranchisement by a groupthathas heretofore been voiceless and
26. See Juan E. M6ndez,"HumanRightsandChiapasRebellion," estimonybeforeU.S.,Congress,House,ForeignAffairsSubcommit-tee on Western HemisphereAffairs, Current
History,93(581):121(Mar.1994).27. Charles C. Cumberland,Mexico:The
StruggleforModernity NewYork:OxfordUni-
versity Press, 1968),p. 274.28. Paul B. CarrollandDianneSolis,"Mex-
ico'sZedilloStumbles in His New Job,"Wall
StreetJournal, 6 Feb. 1995.
that felt ignored during the NAFTA
negotiations. Therewas no debate inMexico about the
agreement,which
was imposed by Salinas as the cap-stone of his presidency.29 oignancyisadded to the present situation by re-
calling how upbeat Mexicans hadbeen just a couple years before the
fall, believing that, with the signingof NAFTA and with the boomingstock market, a rosy future beck-oned.30Actually, had anyone both-
29. To the contrary, "the debate as towhether Mexiconeeded or could even afford
peasantssharpenedafter 1982,as the interna-tional communityof bankers and neo-liberaleconomicplannersforcedMexico oacceptaus-
terity and economicrestructuring n the wakeof crisis over its $96 billion foreign debt."
GeorgeA. Collier,"The Rebellionin Chiapasandthe LegacyofEnergy Development,"Mexi-can Studies/Estudios Mexicanos, 10(2):375
(Summer 1994).30. "Infact, no president in recent years
elevated the expectationsof the Mexicanpeo-ple so highly and so quickly.He [Salinas] leftthe presidency n 1994 with a 75 percent pub-lic-approvalrating. His fall into universal re-
jectioncannotbe separatedfrom the expecta-tionshe raised."Fuentes,New 7imeforMexico,p. 78.Comparisonsbetweenthe two stock mar-
kets, American and Mexican,are particularlyinteresting when studying the psychological
aspects of the Mexican crisis. In ways, theMexicanstock markethas had the excitementand has displayed the speculative fever thatthe American market did at the end of the1920s.There has been a lack ofconcernabout
developingprotectiveinstruments such as afuturesmarket.The results for individual in-vestors are rather similar, too. RegardingtheU.S. situation, "wroteSidney J. Weinberg,aseniorpartner n the famous nvestmenthouseof Goldman-SachsCompany: The public got
scaredandsold.Itwas a verytryingperiodforme. Ourinvestmentcompanywent up to two,three hundred,and then went downto practi-cally nothing .... I don't know anybody that
jumped out of the window.But I know manywho threatened to jump. They ended up in
nursing homes and in insane asylums and
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78 THE ANNALSOF THEAMERICANACADEMY
ered to look deeper during the Sali-nas presidency, which enjoyed suchsuccess in proclaiming the virtues of
NAFTA,31 there were disturbingsigns during the euphoria associatedwith NAFTA that not everything was
well. There was enormous residual
poverty, there were titanic problemsassociated with technological impactand the dislocation of employmentthat technology brings, and therewas considerable unemployment. In
short, feelings of well-being were notmatched by realities. Mexico was cer-
tainly premature in announcing that,with NAFTA, it had become a FirstWorld country.32
Yet, as Marcos points out inces-
santly, Chiapas's and Mexico's pov-
things like that.'" Quoted in Lewis Lipsitz,American Democracy (New York: St. Martin's
Press, 1986), p. 438. The same sort of grouphysteria was aboutin Mexico n 1994.
31. "Salinashimselfhad achievedanimagecontrol with the press that nearly matchedthat enjoyed by American President Ronald
Reaganin his heyday.But suddenlyhis graspon eventshadslipped. Before,twas as thoughhe was a type of king, or God,who made nomistakes and all he touched ran marvelously,like a magician.Now we knowthat was a verypartialview.Wefocusedon the economic itu-
ation in general and lost sight of the socialquestion,' noted Salinas sympathizer SusanKaufmanPurcell,the vice presidentforLatinAmerican affairs at the Americas Society."Conger,"Mexico:ZapatistaThunder,"p. 115.
32. What can be learned from the U.S.
experienceandappliedto the currentMexicansituation? One conclusion could be that, insuch a severe downturn,the governmenthasto intervene, no matter how convinced the
leadershipis that the long-rangepolicyshouldbe one of less
government. In the UnitedStates, gross investment fell enormouslybe-tween 1929 and 1933.Thegrossnationalprod-uct plummeted.Constructionvirtually ceased,and unemploymentsoared. In such circum-
stances, psychological considerations over-
powereconomicconsiderations.
erty contrasts with their immensenatural resources. For example,
Chiapas produces nearly50
percentof Mexico's natural gas and 60 per-cent of its hydroelectric power, alongwith substantial amounts of lumber,coffee, and beef. Ironically, in someareas in Chiapas, 70 percent of thehomes do not have electricity.33 Not
surprisingly, this mix of obviouswealth and cutting poverty has con-tributed to the uprising:
It is precisely in regions with a high per-centage ofindigenouspeoplesthat canbefound a systematic political, juridical,economic violence that has led, in some
cases, to the outbreak of violent, armedconflicts. The EZLN, in Chiapas, wasborn amongst indigenous peoples who,most of all, demand dignified living con-ditions. They prefer,as they say, risking
their life in a dignified manner, ratherthan dying little by little from the dis-eases of poverty.34
American opponents of NAFTAmissed a point that the Chiapas guer-rillas appreciate, namely, that theworldwide trend is toward capital-in-tense development, a trend that re-
quires constant educational change
and continuing investment in tech-nology.35 "One of the ironies of thetwentieth century," remark Joseph
33. Oppenheimer, Bordering on Chaos, p. 20.34. Social Sciences Team,CentroAntonio
de Montesinos,"IndigenousPeoples, Povertyand Violence,"CentroAntoniode Montesinos,Analysis#82, analysis@uibero.uia.mx,5July1996.
35. "Writingduring the agitated days of
Mexicanpoliticallife recorded n this volume,I have recalled the insistence with which Pe-droso repeated Rousseau'sfamous phrase 'Inthe end, it all comes back to politics.' Wecannot imagine Jean-Jacques saying, 'In theend,it all comesback to technology.'"Fuentes,New ~Tme or Mexico, p. 197.
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NAFTAAND CHIAPAS 79
Nye and William Owens, "is thatMarxist theorists, as well as their
critics, such as George Orwell, cor-
rectly noted that technologicaldevel-opments can profoundlyshape socie-ties and governments, but both
groups misconstrued how. Techno-logical and economicchangehave forthe mostpart provedto bepluralizingforces conducive to the formation offree markets rather than repressiveforces enhancing centralized
power."36t is obvious to the guerril-las that Mexico cannot take full ad-
vantage of NAFTAwithoutenormousamountsofcapital.37 hey suspectthatthe majorityof the present working-class population can never realize
any advantage from the agreement.The indigenous in states such as
Chiapas see NAFTAas making their
pitiful situation even worse.Events since the initial January1994 uprising have only confirmedthat viewpoint. In December 1994,just after Zedillo was inaugurated,the Mexican financial system col-
lapsed. The peso was devaluated by50 percent and total chaos wasavoided only by a controversial $50billion bailout engineered by theClinton administration. Now thechief concernwas not how to face thenew world created by NAFTA buthow to survive at all. In the first six
36. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., and William A.
Owens,"America'snformationEdge,"ForeignAffairs, 75(2):29(Mar.-Apr. 996).
37. What Mexiconeeds is something like
the Schoolto WorkOpportunitiesAct. It needsits own version of
TechPrep.But it had not
even had the advantageof the Smith-HughesAct of 1917. In other words, the countryhad
not come to terms with the fact that real suc-
cess in the post-NAFTAeradependedpartlyon
a radicalchangein attitude towardvocational
and technicaleducation.
months of 1995, more than 1 millionMexicans lost theirjobs. Inflationbe-came rampant:the price for gasolinewent up by 35 percent in one jumpand then began further monthly in-creases. Similar price rises involvedsuch staples as food and electricity.Since a similar situation had beenfacedin the 1980s, no one in Chiapasorelsewhere in Mexicoexpectedany-thing butyears ofprivation.38n 1996in Mexico the minimum day's wage
will buy 6 quarts of milk or 2.2pounds of beans, whereas in 1976 itwould buy 21 quarts of milk or 5.0
pounds of beans. It will now buy 2.5
pounds of sugar or 2 gallons of gaso-line, whereas in 1976 it would buy
38. In analyzingthe currentsituation,his-toricalcomparisonsarealwaysdangerous.Ob-
viously, no two events are exactly the same.
Nevertheless,as notedearlier,there are strik-ing similarities between the current Mexicaneconomic ituationandtheAmericansituationin the 1930s. TheAmericandepressionhad itsroots in the exuberanceand optimism of the
1920s,when, at least for the American middle
class, there was an apparentlyunprecedentedprosperity.The stock marketsoared,and therewas a general attitude that things were justgoingto get better and better:optimism, faithin economic ndividualism,and confidencein
the free marketwere prevailingbeliefs. In anelection campaign speech in 1928, HerbertHooverdenouncedthe DemocraticParty and
governmentinterventionin the economy:"In
effect, they abandonthe tenets of their own
partyandturnto State socialismas a solutionfor the difficulties..... It is a false liberalismthat inserts itself into the Governmentopera-tion ofcommercialbusiness. Every step ofbu-
reaucratizingof the business of our countrypoisons the very roots of liberalism-that is
political equalityof
opportunity."Herbert
Hoover, speech, New York, 22 Oct. 1928,
quotedin RichardHofstadterand BeatriceK.
Hofstadter, eds., Great Issues in American His-
tory: From Reconstruction to the Present Day,1864-1981 (New York:Random House, Vin-
tage, 1982),pp. 332-33.
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80 THE ANNALSOF THEAMERICANACADEMY
16.0 pounds of sugar or 11gallons of
gasoline.39So the
Chiapas guerrillasare not
exaggerating when they claim thatNAFTA is associated with disasterfor the Mexican underclass. In es-
sence, their revolt asks just what
happens in a countryduringthe freemarket transition periodwhen social
programs are being dismantled.40 InMexico today, only 11.37 million ofthe economicallyactive populationof
24.89 million have regular paidjobs.The rest survive with part-time em-
ployment.41(Arguably, the United
States, too, has not been exemptfrom the downside of free marketeconomics42)
39. Mary Beth Sheridan, "State of theUnions: Mexican Labor,Like Its Leader,Is
Showing Signs ofAge,"LosAngeles7Imes,11
Mar. 1996, quoted in List Mexico2000,mex-ico2000@mep-d.org,3 July 1996.
40. There has been no clear answer as tohow an already poor underclass can be pro-tected from further shocks broughtabout bythe free market.The connectionbetween thosewho do benefit and the political Right seemswell established. A resurgenceof the Right'slatent political power is perhaps one of the
underlyingreasons why the income share ofthe very small percentageofAmericans n the
top brackets has bloated (the top fifth nowhave 44.6 percentof the total national incomewhile the lowest fifth have only 4.4 percent)and the number of poor in America has in-creased. Forstarters,in what was to becomea
long litany of special interest legislation, theRevenueAct of 1978 awarded 75 percentof allits tax reductions to the wealthiest 2 percentof the country.WorldAlmanac, 1995, p. 326.
41. Mexican Update #81, MEXPAZ_infor-mation informationC@uibero.uia.mx,7 July
1996.42. In 1970,25.4 millionAmericans,or12.6
percent of the population,were living belowthe officialpovertylevel specified by the U.S.
Departmentof Commerce.By 1980 these fig-ures had increased to 29.3 million and 13.0
percent.By 1990 the figureswere 33.6 million
Since the signing of NAFTA,littlehas gone right (no pun intended).43For the
poorin a rural state such as
Chiapas, which is called "Mexico'sbasement," he situation continues todeteriorate." Mexicans are indeed
paying dearly for the long PRI rule,which has had an effect on the coun-
try's personalityas well as its pocket-book,andforplunginginto an experi-ment like NAFTA without publicdiscussion.
NAFTA s, of course, partly aboutthe upgrading of the Mexican infra-structure. The much-remarked-uponuse of computers by the insurgentsmight appear to bolster the claims
and 13.5 percent. At the beginning of 1993,there were "officially"6.9 million Americans
living in poverty,and that was 14.5 percentofthe population.WorldAlmanac,p. 383.
43. "Thedevaluation will surely result in amajorsurge of inflation,"propheticallywroteRobertBartley,the editor of the Wall Street
Journal,"whichwill offsetany imaginedtrade
advantagesto a lowerexchangerate. The com-binationof inflation and recession will throwthe government budget into chaos. The eco-nomic turmoil, especially the devastation ofthe nascent middleclass, will in turn producepolitical turmoil. Much of the hard-won
progress of the last 12years will be reversed."
RobertL. Bartley,"MexicoSufferingthe Con-ventionalWisdom,"WallStreetJournal,8 Feb.1995.
44. It needs to be emphasizedthat NAFTAis not goingto help Chiapas.In Mexico,whereat least 30 million people are outside of the
money economy altogether,the campesino or
farmer-peasantsees very little cash at all andhas no governmentsafety net staving off mal-nutrition and homelessness. Exports do not
help most Mexicans.Eighty percent of Mex-ico's
exportsare
by750 firms that
produceexports, that is, 2.8 percentof the companiesthat even try to exportare responsiblefor 80
percent of actual exports. Peter Rashkin,"Mexican Labor News and Analysis #13,"News, 1(3), 16 July 1996, List Mexico2000,mexico2000@mep-d.org;9 July 1996.
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NAFTAAND CHIAPAS 81
that Mexico can quickly embrace
technology and be competitive. Butthe
guerrillas'use ofthe Internet has
symbolic dimensions that cut both
ways, and only on the surface does it
appear to contradictthe stereotypesof campesino illiteracy and back-wardness.45Marcos'suse of the In-ternet underlines the tragedy of the
peasants in a competitive NorthAmerican economy:they are not on-line.46 t is their white urbane leader
who is on-line.The Internet is widen-ing the gap between the haves and
have-nots.4Marcoshas been trying to enlarge
his support, taking advantage of theeconomic crisis and suspicions of
NAFTA. In July 1996, he staged aconference to protest free market
capitalism: "Using the Internet to
45. See John Charles Chasteen,"FightingWords:The Discourseof Insurgencyin Latin
American History," Latin American Research
Review,28(3):83-111,esp. pp. 102-3(1993).46. Rather, hey areincreasingly rrelevant
in a technologicallyengrossedsociety."Occa-
sional outburstsof rage and despairfromthe
inward-oriented ectorof Mexicansocietywill
inevitably erupt, but, as the Zapatistarebel-
lion in Chiapas demonstrated,these can be
containedandmanaged."
JorgeG.Castafieda,"Mexico'sCircle of Misery,"Foreign Affairs,75(4):100 (July-Aug. 1996). In Mexico there
areperhaps25,000computers hat areon-line.
"Mexicans Struggle to Get Online," List
Mexnet, mx-internet@csgrs6kl.uwaterloo.ca,17 July 1996.
47. Lisa Guernsey,"TheElectronicSoap-box," Chronicle of Higher Education, 3 May
1996,p.A32.TheInternetencouragesbuildinginteractive electroniccommunities, but, in a
region like Chiapas where many do not even
have electricpower, he prospectsofbeing partof such communitiesare nil. Formoreon elec-
troniccommunities,seeArthurArmstrongand
John Hagel III, "TheReal Value of On-line
Communities," Harvard Business Review,
74(3):131-41(May-June1996).
summon supportersfrom around the
world, Zapatista rebels are staging amini-Woodstock of the information
age-a rally against big business inthe mountains of southern Mexico.
Swappinge-mail addresses and sing-ing revolutionary songs, leftists from41 countries on five continents
met."48The Zapatistas have signed a
pact with El Barz6n, which is thedebtor movementofthe middle class,farmers, and small businessmen. El
Barz6n repudiates the bank loansand mortgages that are now in de-fault. El Barz6n national presidentJuan Jos6 Quirino Salsas has
warned, "Wewill not permit that inthis battle for a new Mexico anyonelays hands on a single Zapatista. Wewill not permit that the worthy menwhofight in the Barz6nbeput injail."
El Barz6nclaims850,000 members.49The Chiapas rebellion also has
been followedby a guerrilla action inGuerreroknown as Ej6rcitoPopularRevolucionario EPR)and by still an-other uprising in Sierra Madre Ori-ental.Actionsin Guerrerohave taken
place only thirty miles from
Acapulco, directed by "Comandante
Antonio."so heprospectsforpeace inMexico have much to do with the
ruling hierarchy'sdealing with these
interests, which have been largelyignoredandwhichperceiveeconomicfreedom as only compoundingtheir
48. "Mexican Rebels Convene Interna-
tional Protest Forum," Chiapas-L@prof-mexis.sar.net,31 July 1996.
49. "Mexico's Zapatistas, Barz6n DebtGroupSet Pact,"LaRealidad,21 July 1996,in
Mexico2000news, news@mep-d.org,22 July1996.
50.JohnRoss,"GuerreroReport,"Chiapas-
L@prof.mexis.dgsca.unam.mx.
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82 THE ANNALSOF THE AMERICANACADEMY
grievances.51Indeed, the future offree trade and of neoliberalism inLatin America in
general requiresdiscussion with minorities such asthe indigenous of Chiapas, peoplesthat have long embracedantistatismin the face ofdecadesof authoritariandomination.52At least that they arenow demanding such discussion ismorepromisingthan if they were un-
repentant anarchists.53
THECD-ROMREVOLUTION
The Internet may be a help to therebels in getting their story out andin promotingthe image of Marcos asa with-it person, but the Internet isnot a place where the indigenousagrarianculturesthat the Zapatistasclaim to defend against NAFTAare
cherished: "Such an environmentrapidly breaks down not merelyboundaries but cultures them-selves."54Furthermore, the use ofsuch technology casts doubt on therebellion as one led by peasant Indi-ans. Marcoshimself is an educated,white, technologically savvy media
51. Latin Americansubaltern studies are
nowin vogue,"subaltern"eferring o subordi-nated peoplesof popularculture.
52. However,discussions should avoid arenewal of the arguments of the 1920s and1930s that the treatment of minority historyas a digression from the great issues is notaccidentalbut partof a hiddenagenda.
53. Unfortunately,land reformis basic totheir demands-and that offerslittle prospectof actually raising them frompoverty.In the
longrun,"shortofbuildingdikesin the Pacific
Ocean," and reformis not going to solve thecampesinos'problems.See Mitchell A. Selig-son, "AgrarianInequality and the TheoryofPeasant Rebellion," Latin American Research
Review,31(2):140-57(1966).54. Clausen,"Welcomeo Post-Culturism,"
p. 380.
star,a ZorroizedZapata.He is English-speaking,55enabling him to give
pressinterviews to
gringo reporterswho know neither Spanish nor Ma-
yan.56Just how much a leader of the
indigenous against the new NorthAmerican community he can reallybe can be debated."5
The ultimate effect of the Chiapasrebellion on NAFTA and Mexican
politics is therefore uncertain. Atleast according to polls, far more
Mexicans are concerned about eco-nomic issues such as unemploymentthan they are about Chiapas itself.While 52 percent think creating new
jobs should be a first priority of gov-ernment,only3 percentthink solvingthe Chiapas conflict should take pri-ority.5WhenCuauht6mocCardenas,the presidential candidate of the op-
position Party of the DemocraticRevolution, met Marcos during the1994 election campaign, the effectseems to have been that voters werescared that his election might bringon civil war.59
On the other hand, Chiapas hasbeen the equivalent of a parliamen-tary vote of no confidence in recent
55. Pro-guerrilla graffiti in San Crist6baland otherChiapastowns hadappeared n Eng-lish for benefitof the cameras.Halleck,"Zapa-tistas On-line,"p. 32.
56. See Oppenheimer, Bordering on Chaos,
pp. 22-23.57. Forexample,when he called a conven-
tion of oppositiongroupsin Aug. 1994,he was
given Mexicangovernmentmoneyto host the
meeting The governmentprovided rucks, la-
trines, and speaker systems, and it helpedstring electric wires. The reason apparentlywas that President Salinas preferredto havethe meetings than to have a disruptionduringthe forthcoming lections. Ibid.,pp. 142-43.
58. Ibid.,pp. 153-54.59. Ibid.,pp. 150-51.
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T H E A N N A L S O F T H E A M E R I C A N A C A D E M Y
Political reform in Mexico could
eventually mitigate the force of Mar-cos's accusations and rob him of the
crisis that has promoted his stand-ing. The 1997 Mexican congressionalelections may see the PRI lose its
majority in Congress for the firsttime since its founding in 1929. A
harbinger is the fact that in the 1994
presidential election, the PRI re-ceived only 50 percent of the vote,while the National Action Party, the
right-of-center party, received 27 per-cent and the Party of the Democratic
Revolution, which includes a numberof leftist movements, received 17 per-cent. Electoral reforms so far have
included independent registrationand polling booth officials, limits on
campaign expenditures, and equalaccess to the media. More such re-
forms are promised.64Meanwhile, in one of the contra-
dictions that make the whole situ-
ation so interesting, the subcoman-
dante, with his old-fashioned leftist
messages and suspicion of develop-ment policies, comes "whizzingthrough the electronic ether of cyber-space at thousands of information
fragments per second, a familiar
masked pipe-smoking visage." Mexi-can Foreign Minister Jose Angel Gur-ria with some irritation has called it"an Internet war." The RAND Corpo-
64. See Ulises Beltin and MarcosValdivia
"Accuracy nd Error in ElectoralPolls:Mexi-can Electoral Polls in ComparativePerspec-tive" PaperdeliveredatWaporRegionalSemi-nar "Quality Criteria in Survey Research,"
Villa La Collina, Cadenabbia, Italy, 27-29June, 1966),passim.
r a t i o n ' s D a v i d R o n f e l d t c a l l s n e t -
w a r . ) 6 5
M a r c o s , e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l d e s p i t eh i s a n t i c a p i t a l i s t r a m b l i n g s , h a s in
f o r m e d h i s E - m a i l a u d i e n c e t h a t
p l a n n i n g s e l l h i s f i r s t C D - R o m .
W e a r e g o i n g C D - R o m ,
s a y s , s p a c e l i k e t h e v i s i t t h e
L o u v r e m u s e u m , b u t t h a t w o u l d
v i s i t t h e L a c a n a d o n J u n g l e .
T h e n , a d d s w i t h e n t h u s i a s m ,
p e o p l e c a n v i s i t c a m p f r o m t h e i r
o f f i c e M o s c o w W a s h i n g t o n
w h a t e v e r , c o m e a n d g e t k n o w t h e
Z a p a t i s t a s . W e w a n t g e t [ t h e
C D - R o m ] d i s t r i b u t e d . T h i s w o u l d
s u p p l e m e n t M a r c o s ' s h o m e p a g e
t h e W o r l d W i d e W e b , h i s f l i r t a t i o n s
w i t h p r o p o s e d d e s i g n e r l i n e
s w e a t e r s p r o d u c e d b y t h e I t a l i a n
m a n u f a c tu r e r B e n e t t o n a n d h i s
C e n t a p p e a r a n c e on t h e m u s i c v i d e o
c h a n n e l M T V . 6 M e x i c o t h e s e d a y sr e v o l u t i o n a r i e s o p p o s e N A F T A b u t
n o t p r o f i t s .
65. Marcos is at http://www.peak.org/justin/ezln/ezln.html, and his enemies, theMexicangovernment,are at http://www.elec-triciti.com/mexinfo/mexagncy.htm. MartinLangfield,"Mexico's apatistaRebelsRide theInternet," Chiapas-L@profmexis.dgsca.
unam.mx,13 Dec. 1995.66. "'Youhave to go to war. But what to
wear?'declared he captionbeside a compositephotographof the Zapatista commander inColors [magazine], 'Camouflage visual dy-namic:light, photogenic... ideal for the sol-dier whogoesfromwar to warand doesn'thavetime to change.'"MarkFineman,"Zapatistasin Transition from Fighting to Fashion,"LosAngeles71mes,21 Apr.1996.
67. "Marcos peaks ofWar,Politics ... and
CD-ROMS,"Chiapas-La@profmexis.sar.net,6July 1996.
84 THEANNALS OFTHEAMERICANACADEMY
Political reform in Mexico could
eventually mitigate the force of Mar-cos's accusations and rob him of the
crisis that has promoted his stand-ing. The 1997 Mexicancongressionalelections may see the PRI lose its
majority in Congress for the firsttime since its founding in 1929. A
harbingeris the fact that in the 1994
presidential election, the PRI re-ceived only 50 percent of the vote,while the National Action Party,the
right-of-centerparty,received 27 per-cent and the Party of the Democratic
Revolution,which includes a numberofleftist movements, received 17per-cent. Electoral reforms so far haveincluded independent registrationand polling booth officials, limits on
campaign expenditures, and equalaccess to the media. More such re-
forms are promised."4Meanwhile, in one of the contra-dictions that make the whole situ-ation so interesting, the subcoman-
dante, with his old-fashioned leftist
messages and suspicion of develop-ment policies, comes "whizzingthrough the electronic ether ofcyber-space at thousands of information
fragments per second, a familiar
masked pipe-smoking visage."Mexi-canForeignMinisterJos6AngelGur-ria with some irritationhas called t"anInternet war."The RANDCorpo-
ration's David Ronfeldt calls it "net-war.,,65
Marcos, entrepreneurial despitehis anticapitalist ramblings, has in-formedhis E-mail audiencethat he is
planning to sell his first CD-Rom."We are going to do a CD-Rom,"hesays, "a space like the visit to theLouvremuseum, but that would be avisit to the Lacanadon Jungle.""Then,"he adds with enthusiasm,"peoplecan visit a camp from their
office in Moscow or Washington orwhatever, come and get to know theZapatistas .... We want to get [theCD-Rom] distributed." This would
supplement Marcos's home page onthe WorldWide Web, his flirtationswith a proposed designer line ofsweaters produced by the ItalianmanufacturerBenetton,66and his re-
cent appearance on the music videochannelMTV.67n Mexicothese days,revolutionaries oppose NAFTA-butnot profits.
64. See Ulises Beltainand MarcosValdivia
"Accuracy nd Error n ElectoralPolls:Mexi-can Electoral Polls in ComparativePerspec-tive" PaperdeliveredatWaporRegionalSemi-nar "Quality Criteria in Survey Research,"
Villa La Collina, Cadenabbia, Italy, 27-29June, 1966),passim.
65. Marcos is at http://www.peak.org/justin/ezln/ezln.html, and his enemies, theMexican government,are at http://www.elec-triciti.com/mexinfo/mexagncy.htm. Martin
Langfield,"Mexico's apatistaRebelsRide the
Internet," Chiapas-L@profmexis.dgsca.
unam.mx,13 Dec. 1995.66. "'Youhave to go to war. But what to
wear?'declaredthe captionbeside a compositephotographof the Zapatista commander inColors [magazine], 'Camouflage visual dy-namic: light, photogenic... ideal for the sol-dier whogoesfromwar to warand doesn'thavetime to change.'"MarkFineman,"Zapatistasin Transition from Fighting to Fashion,"Los
Angeles 7Imes,21 Apr.1996.67. "Marcos peaksofWar,Politics ... and
CD-ROMS,"Chiapas-L~@profmexis.sar.net,6July 1996.
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