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Slides to accompany a lecture given to guests on the “Queen Mary 2.” These are the slides as delivered, extemporaneously.
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“With the ‘Arab Spring’ affecting North Africa, this book is a very useful introduction to exactly how the region has reached its present situation.”
- Dr Trevor James, Historical Association
Revolutions in the Middle East:
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Beyond.
OutlineWhat is happening?
Where is it happening?
Who is involved?
Why now?
Scenes from Midan Tahrir, Cairo
What next?
Conclusions, or Lessons
What is happening?
A lot of things are happening at once.
They are happening for various reasons
and are producing various outcomes.
“Let’s change ‘brink of chaos’ to ‘Everything is wonderful.’ ”
© The New Yorker, 2010
“Democracy is the worst possible form of government,
apart from all the others that have been tried.”
Winston Churchill(1874-1965)
Where is it happening?
Country
Tunisia
Egypt
Libya
Yemen
Syria
Algeria
Pop. (mi#ions)
10
80
7
24
22
35
Country
Tunisia
Egypt
Libya
Yemen
Syria
Algeria
Number of dead
225
875
25 - 30,000
1,500
3,500
8
Pop. (mi#ions)
10
80
7
24
22
35
Tunisia
Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali
As honest as the day is long?
23 years, 2 months
Egypt
Hosni Mubarak
29 years, 4 months
Yemen
Ali Abdullah Saleh
33 years ... and counting
Libya
Muammar Gaddafi
42 years, 11 months
Who is involved?
Mohamed Bouazizi
from Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia
died 4 January, 2011
...and Bush Jnr., Clinton, Bush Snr., Reagan, Carter ...
Obama, Bush Jr., Clinton, Bush Snr., Reagan, Carter ...
... and Ford and Nixon.
“Do not try to do too much with your own hands.
Better the Arabs do it tolerably well than that you do it perfectly.
It is their war and you are to help them,not to win it for them.”
T.E. Lawrence (1917)“Twenty-seven Articles”
Why now?
Scenes from Midan Tahrir, Cairo
11 February 2011
12 February A rare quiet moment in the Citadel
What next?
Ben Ali, Saleh, Gaddafi and MubarakCombined rule = 128 years
“We don’t really have a Middle East policy,which is just as well, because if we did it would be the wrong one.”
Former CIA station chief
Conclusions, or Lessons
i) There is no such thing as “Arab exceptionalism”
ii) These revolutions are driven by nationalism- Muslims are not just Muslims
iii) Young people have more energy than older people
iv) Leaderless revolutions can succeed
v) The alternative to democracy is chaos
Thank you,
or as we say in Arabic,
شكرا(shukran!)
“… crafted with originality and ingenuity … a good sense of story-telling … an enjoyable read”
- Lirim Azemi, Think Africa Press
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