“With the ‘Arab Spring’ affecting North Africa, this book is a very useful introduction to exactly how the region has reached its present situation.”

- Dr Trevor James, Historical Association

Revolutions in the Middle East:

Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Beyond.

OutlineWhat is happening?

Where is it happening?

Who is involved?

Why now?

Scenes from Midan Tahrir, Cairo

What next?

Conclusions, or Lessons

What is happening?

A lot of things are happening at once.

They are happening for various reasons

and are producing various outcomes.

“Let’s change ‘brink of chaos’ to ‘Everything is wonderful.’ ”

© The New Yorker, 2010

“Democracy is the worst possible form of government,

apart from all the others that have been tried.”

Winston Churchill(1874-1965)

Where is it happening?

Country

Tunisia

Egypt

Libya

Yemen

Syria

Algeria

Pop. (mi#ions)

10

80

7

24

22

35

Country

Tunisia

Egypt

Libya

Yemen

Syria

Algeria

Number of dead

225

875

25 - 30,000

1,500

3,500

8

Pop. (mi#ions)

10

80

7

24

22

35

Tunisia

Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali

As honest as the day is long?

23 years, 2 months

Egypt

Hosni Mubarak

29 years, 4 months

Yemen

Ali Abdullah Saleh

33 years ... and counting

Libya

Muammar Gaddafi

42 years, 11 months

Who is involved?

Mohamed Bouazizi

from Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia

died 4 January, 2011

...and Bush Jnr., Clinton, Bush Snr., Reagan, Carter ...

Obama, Bush Jr., Clinton, Bush Snr., Reagan, Carter ...

... and Ford and Nixon.

“Do not try to do too much with your own hands.

Better the Arabs do it tolerably well than that you do it perfectly.

It is their war and you are to help them,not to win it for them.”

T.E. Lawrence (1917)“Twenty-seven Articles”

Why now?

Scenes from Midan Tahrir, Cairo

11 February 2011

12 February A rare quiet moment in the Citadel

What next?

Ben Ali, Saleh, Gaddafi and MubarakCombined rule = 128 years

“We don’t really have a Middle East policy,which is just as well, because if we did it would be the wrong one.”

Former CIA station chief

Conclusions, or Lessons

i) There is no such thing as “Arab exceptionalism”

ii) These revolutions are driven by nationalism- Muslims are not just Muslims

iii) Young people have more energy than older people

iv) Leaderless revolutions can succeed

v) The alternative to democracy is chaos

Thank you,

or as we say in Arabic,

شكرا(shukran!)

“… crafted with originality and ingenuity … a good sense of story-telling … an enjoyable read”

- Lirim Azemi, Think Africa Press