Recap of Day 1 Panel Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

Recap of Day 1 Panel

Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

Day 1 PANEL RISK ASSESSMENT: METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH

- Ms. Karen Carson, Deputy Director, Office of Plant and Dairy Foods and Beverages, FDA Methods Used for Risk Assessment of Food Hazards

- Mr. Clifford Oliver, Chief, Assessment Branch, Mitigation Directorate, FEMA Hazards U.S. (HAZUS)

- Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, National Assessment Center, U.S. Global Change Research Program, NOAA National Assessment of Global Change

Moderator: Colonel (Sel) Mark WelshingerRapporteur: Mr. Robert Dumont

PANELISTS

• Two type of risk assessments– Chemical– Microbial

• Methodology– Identify risk– Gather data

• Ensure risk managers involved– Construct model– Draw conclusions / recommendations– Send out for public review– Finalize document and develop action plan

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Ms. Karen Carson, FDA

• Described Hazard U.S. project

– Loss estimation tool

– Originally designed for earthquakes

– Being expanded for:

• Flood (Dec 2002)

• Wind [Hurricane] (Dec 2002 preliminary / 2005 final)

• Multi-hazard (Dec 2002)

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA

• HAZUS Methodology

– Input

• Hazard data

• Vulnerability

• Inventory (built data)

– Output

• Damage

• Loss data

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA

• Goal of National Assessment:– Analyze / evaluate what is known about

potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Nation…

• Key findings:– Increased warming– Differing regional impacts– Vulnerable ecosystems– Widespread water concerns– Secure food supply

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

• May be “reasonable doubts” about the details…the “balance of evidence” indicates that human activities are altering the climate

– Creating a significant risk of future consequences for humans

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

• Will take combined intellectual resources and consideration of educational, environmental, business, scientific, and governmental organizations to explore the available options and determine the course to set for the decades ahead

Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results

Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

Recap of Day 1

Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments

1A: Characterize / Quantify Exposure

Moderator: Mr. Michael BuckleyRapporteur: Dr. Timothy Cohn

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results

Characterize / Quantify Exposure

• Language and vocabulary is inconsistent with respect to:– Hazards, e.g. floods versus volcanoes– Discipline– Cultural background– Socio-economic class

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results

Characterize / Quantify Exposure

• Analog of financial accounting:– Agreement on units – Agreement on definition of terms– Across cultures and socio-economic

groups

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results

Characterize / Quantify Exposure

• Can we develop a consistent standard language for communicating exposures to hazards?– HAZUS as a model?

Recap of Day 1

Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

1B: Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence

Moderator: Dr. David CleavesRapporteur: Dr. Rachelle D. Hollander

Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments

• Foundation issues– Develop organizing framework and terms– Clarify assumptions underlying forecasting

mission

• Applications– Develop user list and model specifications

for each user group– Develop guide for “customized” forecasts

Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results

Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence

• Technical Quality– Foster research:

• low probability/high consequence (lp/hc) events

• comparisons and interactions among hazard processes

• mitigation effects on lp/hc events

• Communication– Develop methods for 2-way

communication/education about event uncertainties

Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results

Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence

Recap of Day 1

Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments

1C: Estimating Losses

Moderator: Dr. Christopher AdamsRapporteur: Mr. Floyd Hauth

• Define, standardize, collect and make information available– Small steps– Know what is available– Spatial component– Use/leverage current Working Groups

Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results

Estimating Losses

• Compatibility of loss-estimate models– address data sharing problems

• Incentives for data sharing among federal, state and private sector

• Tie funding to data sharing

Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results

Estimating Losses

• Other initiatives– Build capabilities for use by local gov’ts– Leverage current programs (PROJECT IMPACT)

to gather more data (provide template)– Review current federally-sponsored RA/M

research and publicize– Promote data collection as part of mitigation

plans required by Stafford Act

Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results

Estimating Losses