Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages David M. Talan AUBER 2011 Fall Conference Indianapolis,...
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- Slide 1
- Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages David M. Talan AUBER
2011 Fall Conference Indianapolis, Indiana October 9, 2011
- Slide 2
- Outline Background QCEW Data Available Data Sharing New
Statistical Products
- Slide 3
- Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly census of
employers covered under UI and federal employers covered under UCFE
98% of U.S. Employment
- Slide 4
- QCEW Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly data
(frequent) Released 6 months after reference period - timely 9.1
million records and growing 130 million in employment Units,
employment and wages 6 digit NAICS and county, ownership 20 million
data series available on the BLS website UI based, mandatory
collections to run UI Wages- 98% reported data Employment- 97%
reported data Units- 95% reported data 4
- Slide 5
- UI Tax Rate, Actuarial Analysis and UI Benefit Rates UI-Covered
Employment Local Area Unemployment Stats Personal Income (BEA) -
U.S., State, County Gross Domestic Product (BEA) Economic
Forecasting Current Employment Statistics Occupational Employment
Statistics Job Creation/Destruction Size Class Dynamics Business
Survival Rates Geocoded Establishments Occupational Employment
Statistics Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Current
Employment Statistics National Compensation Survey Industrial Price
Program Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Programmatic Uses
Benchmarking (Employment Base) General Economic Uses Quarterly
Census of Employment & Wages Data (QCEW/ES-202) Analytical Uses
Sampling Mass Layoff Statistics: linkages State Revenue Projections
(BEA) JOLTS and Green Goods and Services JOLTS and Green Goods and
Services and State Job Vacancy Surveys..and other federal govt
surveys Local Economic Development Indicators Cluster Analysis
Shift Share Industry Diversity Indexes Location Quotients Federal
Funds Allocation $250 Billion (HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP) Minimum Wage
Studies Uses of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data
(QCEW/ES-202) Local Economic Impact Response Planning Local
Government Services Planning Census Bureau Improve Economic Census
Improve CPS each decennial population Census LEHD / LED Industry
Code Sharing (3.3 M) County Business Patterns Local Transportation
Planning State/local industry employment & wages Social
Security Administration Updated as of 6/14/2011 Quarterly Press
Releases, Annual Employment & Wages REMI and Input-Output
Tables
- Slide 6
- Investment in Quality Source: BLS Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW) Administrative data from Unemployment
Insurance filings (UI) Huge investment in improving raw
administrative data Two supplemental collections ARS- Annual
Refiling Survey MWR- Multiple Worksite Report
- Slide 7
- Independent Validation Checks Current Employment Statistics
Survey Monthly Survey of Employment and Earners 400,000
establishments Detailed industry and geographic estimates
Individual Wage Records National State 7
- Slide 8
- Highly Accurate Data Thorough editing and review at the state,
regional, and national levels each quarter QCEW staff contact
businesses to validate or correct questionable data and/or provide
missing data (probably unique in this respect) Development of new
processing system with even more powerful editing and review
capabilities 8
- Slide 9
- Quality issues: Timeliness, Accuracy, Relevance Timeliness:
Streamlining QCEW and BED release processes Relevance: Data
fuzzing: working with experts to develop fuzzing techniques
Relevance: more BED and Non-profits, Ocean data, Relevance: working
on clusters, shift share calculator Relevance: working with
Transportation experts towards greater use of QCEW data. 9
- Slide 10
- Timeliness January 1 March 31 = Reference Quarter March 31
April 30 = Reporting Period May 1 July 29 = UI Processing QCEW
Extract from UI QCEW Edit & Review July 30 Sept 28 = State File
sent to BLS BLS Review State Updates Received September 29, 2011 =
Publication Lag = 6 months
- Slide 11
- New products, new users, expanding support base NOAA: adding
elevation to geocodes Galveston, SF and Miami for detailed
assessments of potential water damage: sea level rise Non-Profits:
developing a permanent non- profit methodology for ongoing
publication. Foreign Direct Investment: Any demand for state level
FDI from QCEW? Uses and users? 11
- Slide 12
- Improved Confidentiality Processing EZS Approach (Evans,
Zayatz, and Slanta) Goal: Protect tabular data Process: Perturb
data at micro-level Currently in research phase Is the tradeoff
between more published cells at the cost of some small accuracy a
good one? 12
- Slide 13
- Data Sharing Bureau of Economic Analysis Census Bureau National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Future Data Sharing
Plans
- Slide 14
- Bureau of Economic Analysis Receives Employment and Wage Data
every quarter Used to prepare the Personal Income component of the
National Income and Products Accounts at the national, state and
county level QCEW wages represent 94% of the wage and salary
component of Personal Income and 42.5% of GDP 14
- Slide 15
- Census Bureau Receives industry codes every quarter. Used in
the Census Business Register to help classify new establishments.
In FY2011, BLS supplied Census with 3.3 million matched firm
records This data sharing project reduces respondent burden,
improves industry codes for Census, and helps to create consistent
statistical products 15
- Slide 16
- NOAA Used to develop ocean economy economic indicators of
employment and wages at the national, state and county level This
data sharing project is helping NOAA develop new social science
tools and methods used to address the nations coastal issues
http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/s napshots/index.html
http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/s napshots/index.html
16
- Slide 17
- Future Data Sharing Plans More Data Sharing with Census:
Sharing Multi-units data Sharing Professional Employer Organization
(PEO) data Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
17
- Slide 18
- Employment and Wage Data Number of establishments, monthly
employment, and quarterly wages Available by: geographical area
industry code size WAGES
- Slide 19
- QCEW Mapping Tool 19
- Slide 20
- QCEW Mapping Tool 20
- Slide 21
- Uses of Geocoded Data 21
- Slide 22
- Slide 23
- 23 Business Employment Dynamics National Total Private National
NAICS Sector National Firm Size State Total Private National Size
of Employment Change Annual (National/State) Birth Death
National/State) 3 Digit national data Age and survival National and
state 2 digit Future? More, much more September 2003 May 2004
December 2005 August 2007 September 2008 May 19, 2009 May 20, 2010
August 19, 2010
- Slide 24
- BED are longitudinally linked QCEW microdata Unit of analysis
is the Establishment BED Scope Private sector, excludes private
households 6.8 million establishments 107 million employment BED
reveals the dynamics of the labor market. BED data show gross job
flows as well as net employment changes What are the BED?
- Slide 25
- A set of statistics measuring changes in employment at the
establishment level on a quarterly basis Job churn Creative
destruction What are the BED?
- Slide 26
- BED statistics break down the underlying dynamics of net
employment change into the numbers and rates of gross jobs gained
and gross jobs lost Gross job gains Expansions Openings Births
Gross job losses Contractions Closings Deaths What are the
BED?
- Slide 27
- High Frequency and Timely Gross Job Flows Available 8 months
after the reference quarter
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf 2 week speed-up this
year Data and charts available on the BLS website:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/ http://www.bls.gov/bdm/ BED Press
Release
- Slide 28
- Gross Job Gains and Losses Gross job gains Gross job
losses
- Slide 29
- BED Components Expansions Contractions Openings Closings
- Slide 30
- Number of Openings Closings: U.S. Total Private 30
2007March9,000 June-11,000 September15,000 December23,000
2008March-22,000 June-39,000 September-23,000 December-43,000
2009March-89,000 June-50,000 September-59,000 December15,000
2010March-50,000 June5,000 September-12,000
- Slide 31
- Construction of Buildings
- Slide 32
- Real Estate
- Slide 33
- Arizona
- Slide 34
- Florida
- Slide 35
- North Dakota
- Slide 36
- 36 Small Firms Lagging, With Bulk of Job Losses Most of the job
losses at the end of last year took place at the smallest firms,
underscoring how small businesses are lagging in the recovery.
August 19, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704557704575437650742168186.html?mod=W
SJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights
- Slide 37
- Net Employment Change By Firm Size 37 NOTE: Some smaller firms
had net employment losses before the start of the recession in
December 2007
- Slide 38
- 38
- Slide 39
- Why BED data by establishment age? 39 The Committee on National
Statistics recommended employment dynamics data by age. Age and
survival data along will complete demographic profile of US
businesses. Unsettled debate on who creates the most jobs: young or
old firms? A debate similar to the small vs. large firms
contribution to employment growth. The impact of age of
firm/establishment on employment growth and productivity is
inconclusive. New research (Young firms, Not Small Ones, Are the
Engines of Growth ) showed controlling for age, there is no
systematic relationship between firm size and growth.
- Slide 40
- 40 Weak Pace of Start-Ups could hurt Recovery Entrepreneurs
have started up the fewest new U.S. businesses in more than a
decade, according to government figures that could spell more bad
news for job creation. USATODAY June 13, 2011
http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2011-06-13-small-
business-start-ups-fewer_n.htm
- Slide 41
- 41
- Slide 42
- Home Prices compared to Establishment Births
- Slide 43
- Slide 44
- Survival Rates Across Cohorts 44
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- Slide 46
- What new products would you like? Detailed State Data 6-Digit
County Level Birth/Death Counts Firm Size by Industry, State Firm
v. Establishment Data? Age Others? Please let us know! Customer
Feedback
- Slide 47
- Accessing the QCEW and BED Macrodata BED:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/home.htm http://www.bls.gov/bdm/home.htm
QCEW: http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm
http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm 47
- Slide 48
- Contact Information David Talan Phone: (202) 691-6467 Email:
talan.david@bls.gov Website:
www.bls.gov/bdmtalan.david@bls.govwww.bls.gov/bdm