Prospects for the Economy and Monetary Policy€¦ · -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2002 2004 2006...

Prospects for the Economyand Monetary Policy

Remarks by President William C Dudley at New York University's School Business

February 28, 2011

Remarks by President William C. Dudley at New York University s School Business, New York City

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

% Change – Annual Rate % Change – Annual Rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Spending Rebounds in 2010Q4

Real Personal

Consumption Expenditures

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Index, Above 50 = Expansion Index, Above 50 = Expansion

Source: Institute of Supply Management

ISM Manufacturing

New Orders

ISM Nonmanufacturing

New Orders

New Orders Rise Sharply

2006 2008 2010

Index, 1985 = 100 Index, 1966Q1 = 100

Source: University of Michigan

Consumer Sentiment Improving

University of Michigan

Consumer Sentiment Index

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate

(left axis)

Participation Rate

(right axis)

Unemployment Rate Down in Recent Months But Still High

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Change per Month, in Thousands Change per Month, in Thousands

Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth Remains Sluggish

Note: Monthly Average of Quarterly Change.

4-Week Moving Average, in Thousands 4-Week Moving Average, in Thousands

Source: Department of Labor

Continuing Claims

(Left Axis)

Initial Claims

(Right Axis)

Unemployment Insurance Claims Declining

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Index, Above 50 = Expansion Index, Above 50 = Expansion

Source: Institute of Supply Management

Manufacturing

Nonmanufacturing

ISM Employment Diffusion Indices Up in Recent Months

Household Financial Obligations Ratio Returns to Mid 1990s Level

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Percent of Disposable Personal Income Percent of Disposable Personal Income

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Lending Standards Begin to Ease but Remain Tight

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Net Percentage Net Percentage

Source: FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey

Standards

Spreads

Banks Tightening Terms and

Standards for Business Loans to

Large and Mid-Sized Firms

% Change – 13-Week Annual Rate % Change – 13-Week Annual Rate

C&I Loans on Bank Balance Sheets Beginning to Expand

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

C&I Loans: All Commercial Banks

Equity Prices Up Sharply Since Last Summer

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11

Index, 1941-1943 = 100 Index, 1941-1943 = 100

Source: New York Times

Flash Crash Jackson

November

2nd FOMC

Fiscal

Compromise

S&P 500

Credit Spreads Narrow

Basis Points Basis Points

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Flash Crash Jackson

November

2nd FOMC

Fiscal

Compromise

Note: Spreads relative to the 10 year Treasury yield.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

% Change – Year to Year % Change – Year to Year

Exports Expanding at a Robust Pace

Real Exports of Goods and Services

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percentage Points Percentage Points

Net Exports Growth Contribution Unusually Large in 2010Q4

Net Exports Contribution to

Real GDP Growth

Single-Family Housing Starts Remain at Depressed Levels

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Per 1,000 People Per 1,000 People

Source: Census Bureau

CA, AZ, NV, and FL

U.S. Total

U.S. Excluding Combined

States

Single-family Housing

Starts Relative To Population

Home Prices Under Renewed Downward Pressure

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Index, January 2000 = 100 Index, January 2000 = 100

Includes Distressed

Excludes Distressed

Source: CoreLogic and Haver Analytics

CoreLogic National House Price Index

State & Local Government Sector Acting as Drag on Growth

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Quarters Since NBER PeakSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1973-75 Cycle

Current Cycle

Index, NBER Peak = 1.00 Index, NBER Peak = 100

1981-82 Cycle

1990-91 Cycle

2001 Cycle

Real State and Local Government

Consumption Expenditures & Gross

Investment

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Total and Core Inflation Below Desired Levels

PCE Deflator Inflation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Commodity Prices Up Sharply in Recent Months

Note: End of Month Data.

Goldman Sachs

Commodity Index

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent Percent

2-3 Years

Note: Carry-adjusted.

4-5 Years

5-10 Years February 24:

February 24:

Inflation Expectations Well Anchored

TIPS Implied Inflation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent Percent

Total Industry

Capacity Utilization Rate

Substantial Slack in the Industrial Sector

Long-Run

Average

Unemployment Rate High Relative to Job Vacancies

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Vacancy Rate (JOLTS) Vacancy Rate (JOLTS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Şahin, Song, Topa, and Violante (2010)

Unemployment Rate

Recession

December 2010

December 2000 – November 2007

Beveridge Curve

Typical Duration of Unemployment Is Now Quite Long

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

Median Duration of

Unemployment

(left axis)

Percent

Percent of Unemployed

for 27+ Weeks

(right axis)

Unit Labor Costs Falling Sharply

1995 2000 2005 2010

% Change – 8-Quarter Annual Rate % Change – 8-Quarter Annual Rate

Unit Labor Costs in the

Nonfarm Business Sector

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Index, December 31, 1982 = 100 Index, December 31, 1982 = 100

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Commodity Prices on Uptrend Over Last Decade

GSCI Energy

GSCI Non-Energy

Note: End of Month Data.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1,000,000 Metric Tonnes 1,000,000 Metric Tonnes

Source: United States Department of Agriculture

Consumption

Production

Recent Spike in Agricultural Commodity PricesDue to Fall Off of Production, Low Inventories

Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Futures Markets Expect Many Prices to Fall

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

Index, March 2011 = 100 Index, March 2011 = 100

Source: Chicago Board of Trade and Bloomberg Note: Data as of February 25, 2011.

Soybeans

Futures Prices

1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Percent Percent

Commodities a Relatively Small Shareof Consumer Spending

Food at Home

Energy

Share of

Personal

Consumption

Expenditures

5-10 Year Horizon TIPS Implied Inflation

Percent Percent

Flash Crash Jackson

HoleNovember

2nd FOMC

Fiscal

Compromise

5-10 Year Horizon

TIPS Implied Inflation

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters

Professional Forecasters’ Inflation Expectations Stable

SPF Median 10-year PCE Inflation Forecast

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent Percent

Source: University of Michigan

75th Percentile

Median

Household Inflation Expectations Stable

25th Percentile

Michigan Survey Inflation Expectations:

5-10 Years Ahead

Prospects for the Economy and Monetary Policy€¦ · -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2002 2004 2006...

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