PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Understanding the Science and...

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Change: Understanding the Science

and Developing Strategies for Action

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Faculty Director, University Honors Program

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.eduScience Center of Iowa

5 March 2007

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future

climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest Four components for addressing climate

change

Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Natural cycles

Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

IPCC Third Assessment Report

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

2007

380 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

2050

550 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

?

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004

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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Natural cycles

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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Not Natural

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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Not Natural

Highly Likely Not Nartural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index

(PDI)

V

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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index

(PDI)

V

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Adaptation Necessary

Mitigation Possible

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)

– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change

Mitigation policies: 2050-2100– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive

economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015

– Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified

Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,

combination of both; drought and wildfire

EST personal view

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.

Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)

EST personal view

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Surprises

Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)

Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

“Warming Hole”

TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric

Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchPrincipal Investigator

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

NARCCAP Plan

A2 Emissions Scenario

GFDL CCSM HADAM3link to EU programs

CGCM3

1960-1990 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions

MM5Iowa State/

PNNL

RegCM3UC Santa Cruz

ICTP

CRCMQuebec,Ouranos

HADRM3Hadley Centre

RSMScripps

WRFNCAR/PNNL

Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation,

see my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:gstakle@iastate.edu

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/