Prof. John C. Mutter Deputy Director The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Prof. John C. MutterProf. John C. Mutter

Deputy Director Deputy Director The Earth Institute at Columbia UniversityThe Earth Institute at Columbia University

Disasters and Development:

Including

Hurricane Katrina: How did a poor world disaster happen in a rich country?

Disasters and the poorest

Does this have to be?

Can your science help people like this?Can your science help people like this?

Collecting water near Collecting water near Kararo EthiopiaKararo Ethiopia

Disasters and the poorest

Does this have to be?

Can our science help people like this ……Can our science help people like this ……

Kararo Village Kararo Village Ethiopia Ethiopia

Can our science help people like this ……Can our science help people like this ……

The divide todayThe divide today richrich poorpoorGNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450

population (billion)population (billion) 1.21.2 5.35.3

% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5

% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4

infant mortality rateinfant mortality rate 6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000

children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0

life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565

% urban% urban 7676 4141

people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464

There is a global ecology of human well-beingThere is a global ecology of human well-being

Small variations around the norm in poor countries can Small variations around the norm in poor countries can act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the most vulnerablemost vulnerable

Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poorestNatural disasters preferentially imperil the poorest

Three part case for the co-dependence of human well-being and the state of the planet

Income per person, PPP (1998)

GDP per capita as a function of latitude.

Poverty has a latitudinal dependence

(J. Sachs)

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: basic aspects of human development:

LONGEVITYLONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; -- life expectancy at birth;

KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;

STANDARD of LIVINGSTANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$).PPP, in US$).

HDIHDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.

What is the Human Development Index (HDI)?

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HDI (1980-2000)

Latitude

(negative indicates South)

HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

HDI versus latitude

Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana

Preferentially imperil the poorest peoplePreferentially imperil the poorest people• Large total deaths• Large relative to population• Large relative to level of exposure

Mortality risk is gender and age selectiveMortality risk is gender and age selective

Effect on market economy often minimalEffect on market economy often minimal

Characteristics of global disasters impacts

Disaster mortality risk from combined hazardsDisaster mortality risk from combined hazards

(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)

0.01

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0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1000.00 10000.00Annual Disaster-Related Deaths

Annual Disaster-Related Deaths per Million Pop.

Bottom 40% HDI

Bottom 40% Average

Middle 40% HDI

Middle 40% Average

Top 20% HDI

Top 20% Average

Aggregate Natural Disasters

Source UNDP 2004

Relative Cyclone Vulnerability

India

Pakistan

Papua New Guinea

Viet Nam

Bangladesh

Honduras

Nicaragua

SwazilandComoros

Lao

China

Philippines

El Salvador

Malaysia

Fiji

Cape Verde

Belize

Costa RicaJamaica

Venezuela

Colombia

Thailand

Mexico

US

Japan

Australia

New Zealand

Rep. of Korea

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000

Average population exposed to cyclones

Average annual deaths

Bottom 40% HDI

Middle 40% HDI

Top 20% HDI

Very old and young and women are at greatest risk

Relative Drought Vulnerability

Guinea

Burundi

KenyaPapua New Guinea

UgandaMadagascar

Pakistan

India

Indonesia

MauritaniaChad

MozambiqueSudan

Ethiopia

Philippines

Brazil

China

0.10

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100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

100,000.00

1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

Average population exposed to droughts

Average annual deaths

Bottom 40% HDI

Middle 40% HDI

Top 20% HDI

Females have small survival advantage

Relative Earthquake Vulnerability

India

Guatemala

Indonesia

Nicaragua

Yemen

Uganda

PhilippinesChina

Chile

Armenia

Iran

Turkey

Brazil

Kazakhstan

Romania

Argentina

Italy

US

Japan

Australia

New Zealand

Germany

Belgium

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10.00

100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

Average population exposed to earthquakes

Average annual deaths

Bottom 40% HDI

Middle 40% HDI

Top 20% HDI

Men have a smalladvantage

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Flood Vulnerability

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HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

Amenabad India

School Algeria 1980

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HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

Islamanbad Pakistan 2005

Northridge California

Relative Flood Vulnerability

Indonesia

Nepal

Morocco

Egypt

Djibouti

Gambia

Botswana

India

Kuwait

Argentina

Venezuela

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

China

Switzerland

Japan

New Zealand

U.S.

Norway

UK

Germany

0.01

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1,000.00

10,000.00

1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000

Average population exposed to floods

Average annual deaths

Bottom 40% HDI

Middle 40% HDI

Top 20% HDI

Flod vulnerabilityW.r.to latitude and HD

Tsunami damage Sri Lanka

Tsunami damage Sri Lanka

Mortality risk is a combinationof physical and social Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings in risky places.

Flood disaster economic Flood disaster economic losseslosses

Flood disaster mortality

Typical levee failures

Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)

Metairie

New Orleans

Jefferson Parish

St. Bernards Parish

East Orleans

Algiers

(Lower Ninth Ward)

Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

Total deceases victims to date Total deceases victims to date 14171417..

But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain: But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain:

those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be counted.counted.

Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for. Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for.

Total Total maymay be close to be close to 20002000

Demographic and Geographic selectivity of victims

Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900

Galveston Galveston (1900):(1900): 8,0008,000 Lake OkeechobeeLake Okeechobee (1928):(1928): 2,5002,500 KatrinaKatrina (2005):(2005): 1,4171,417 Unnamed Unnamed (1919):(1919): 600600 New EnglandNew England (1938):(1938): 600600 Labor DayLabor Day (1935):(1935): 408408 AudreyAudrey (1957):(1957): 390390 Great AtlanticGreat Atlantic (1944):(1944): 390390 Great IsleGreat Isle (1909):(1909): 390390 Unnamed Unnamed (1915):(1915): 350350

# 3,000 - 1737 Calcutta cyclone (India) # 2,500 - Andhra Pradesh cyclone, 1996 # 2,334 - Typhoon Iris (China, 1959) # 2,150 - hurricane, (Caribbean, 1935) # 2,060 - Hurricane David, (Dominican Republic, U.S., 1979) # 2,000-3,000 - hurricane, (Central America, 1934) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Gulf of Mexico, 1780) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Florida, 1781) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Cuba, Florida, 1870) # 2,000 - Chenier Caminada Hurricane, (Louisiana, 1893) # 1,620 - Hurricane Stan, (Mexico, Central America, 2005) # 1,605 - Hurricane Katrina, (United States, 2005) not including

2,500 missing[1] # 1,600 - Typhoon Mary, (China, 1960) # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Windward Islands, 1831) # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Central America, 1931) # 1,500 - hurricane, (Greater Antilles, Mexico, 1909) # 1,300 - Typhoon Ike, (Philippines, 1984) # 1,200 - Hurricane Hazel (Bahamas, Haiti, U.S., Canada,1954) # 1,145 - Hurricane Gordon (Haiti, U.S., 1994)

Katrina in comparison

910 deceased victims processed at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan

18th

786786 identified with age, gender and race (approx identified with age, gender and race (approx half the total victims) half the total victims)

629629 released to families released to families

Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Gender Gender 51% male49% female

RaceRace50% African American42% CaucasianAll other groups less

than 4%

Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)

Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

Flood vulnerability

Flood vulnerability

Gender Gender 51% male49% female

RaceRace50% African American42% CaucasianAll other groups less

than 4%

Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Age: the equalizer Age: the equalizer 64% older than 60 yrs39% older than 75 yrs

1% less than 5 yrsless than 4% younger than 20 yrsless than 20% younger than 50 yrs

Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Relative Flood Vulnerability

Indonesia

Nepal

Morocco

Egypt

Djibouti

Gambia

Botswana

India

Kuwait

Argentina

Venezuela

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

China

Switzerland

Japan

New Zealand

U.S.

Norway

UK

Germany

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1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000

Average population exposed to floods

Average annual deaths

Bottom 40% HDI

Middle 40% HDI

Top 20% HDI Katrina effect

Katrina Effect onFlood Vulnerability

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Flood Vulnerability

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Flood vulnerability

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Katrina Effect on Flood vulnerability

US KKatrinaeffect

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