Processor Quarterly Market Monitor - i-Micronews · 3 PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION Processor Monitor...

From Technologies to Markets

© 2020

Processor Quarterly Market

Monitor

Computing Service 2020

Sample

2

Apple, Arm, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, Nvidia, NXP, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum, Texas

Instruments, TSMC, UMC, UniSOC, Vivo, Xiaomi, XMC, ZTE

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COMPANIES MONITORED IN THE PRODUCT

3

PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION

Processor Monitor

APU – Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, APU-based PC, SmartTV, Smartspeaker, AR, VR, Automotive infotainment

CPU, GPU

FPGA

Module II

Module III

Publication Date

2021 Q1

2021 Q2

Module I Released

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4

APU market overview

o 2019-2025 Market dynamics

o Revenue

o Shipments

o Pricing

o Quarterly revenue – near & long term

o CAPEX

Market shares

o APU quarterly market shares

o Smartphone market shares

o Tablet market shares

o Smartwatch market shares

o APU-based Notebook market shares

o SmartSpeaker market shares

o SmartTV market shares

o AR+VR market shares

o Automotive infotainment market shares

TABLE OF CONTENTS

APU Pricing

o APU pricing, near & long term

o APU pricing by segment

o APU pricing per unit area

o APU pricing per transistor

APU Technology

o Apple die size trend

o Samsung die size trend

o Hisilicon die size trend

o Qualcomm die size trend

o APUs with embedded AI accelerators

o APUs by memory interface

o APU average die size

APU Production

o Quarterly wafer output

o Annual wafer output

o APU wafers by logic node

o APU units by logic node

o APU foundry revenue

o APU foundry revenue per wafer

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5

Processor from smartphones as a technological leader

ON THE ROAD TO AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE

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John Lorenz

John Lorenz is a Technology and Market Senior Analyst within the Computing & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole). After holding various

positions within Micron Technology including engineering, strategic and finance roles, John is daily engaged in the development of market and

technology monitors for the logic segment of advanced semiconductors at Yole. John has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from

the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (USA), with a focus on MEMS devices.

Contact: john.lorenz@yole.fr

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Biographies & contacts

Tom Hackenberg

Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement(Yole). Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currently focused on low and ultralow power. Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors. Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets, AI and edge computing.

Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin.

Contact : tom.hackenberg@yole.fr

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APU NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS

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APU LONG-TERM DYNAMICS

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© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 9

• Near term: seasonally weak Q1-20 and COVID-19 impacts are overlapped to place H1-20 revenue just 3% above H1-19. Production volume

outpaced demand, keeping system builds afloat. Assuming a return to pre-COVID trajectories in mid-2021.

• Long term: Following the bounce back of demand in 2021, expecting modest unit and ASP growth to combine for growing APU revenues,

nearing $50B by 2023

APU MARKET DYNAMICS

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

reve

nue (

bill

ions

USD

)

Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast Unit growth ASP growth

“APU Market Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone,

Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment

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APU MARKET PRICING

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

ASP ASP Y/Y

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QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM

“Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue

Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18re

venue (

$b)

Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast

12

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

capital

expenditure

($b)

Samsung TSMC SMIC Total Y/Y growth

APU FOUNDRY CAPEX

Only includes the capex for APUs tracked within this monitor: smartphone, tablet, and

smartwatch. As more devices are added to the monitor, the tracked capex will adjust to reflect.

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APU PRICE PER UNIT

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

ASP ASP % change

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APU PRICE BY SEGMENT

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet

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APU PRICE BY SEGMENT

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All APU Smartwatch Notebook AR VR SmartSpeaker Auto Infotainment Tablet All Smartphone

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APU PRICE PER BILLION TRANSISTORS

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ASP

($ p

er

Bn T

r)

Price per BnTr Y/Y %

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APUS CONTAINING EMBEDDED AI ACCELERATORS

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

perc

ent

of units

Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablets Total

Embedded Accelerators: important emerging feature that places upward pressure on future die sizes trends

See also Yole’s report:

Artificial Intelligence Computing for Consumer 2019 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020

18

APUS BY MEMORY INTERFACE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

perc

ent

of units

LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 LPDDR4X LPDDR5 DDR3

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NON-SMARTPHONE APU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE

All Smartphone

Smartwatch

Notebook

SmartSpeaker

SmartTV

Auto Infotainment

AR

VR

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

die

siz

e (

mm

2)

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Wafer production will increase as APU designers prioritize performance over cost reductions

INDUSTRY WAFER PRODUCTION

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025

waf

er

pro

duct

ion (

k w

pm

-300m

m e

quiv

)

TSMC Samsung SMIC Others

Industry 2019-2025 CAGR: 4.3%

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If SMIC proves to be an adequatefoundry partner for Huawei/Hisilicon(~15% of APU wafers), there is muchmore potential business for SMIC, up to40% of APU wafers

With the strong national push forChinese technological self-sufficiency, aviable SMIC will become an attractivesupplier for Chinese OEMs

Chinese OEMs would also need toestablish suitable chip design expertise,like Huawei has with Hisilicon (OPPOand Xiaomi have already started thisprocess)

CHINESE OEM SHARE OF APU MANUFACTURING FURTHER SMIC OPPORTUNITY

15% 16% 16% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17%15% 14% 15%

17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 17%15%

38%40%

37%39%

37% 37%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1,0

00 w

afers

per

month

(300m

m e

quiv

)

Huawei Chinese OEM excl Huawei Rest of World

Total % Huawei % All Chinese OEM

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© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 22

APU WAFERS BY NODE

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025

waf

er

pro

duct

ion (

k w

pm

)

3-4nm 5-6nm 7-8nm 10nm 12-16nm 20nm 28nm 45nm Avg Node (wafer basis)

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FOUNDRY APU REVENUE PER WAFER

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025

reve

nue p

er

waf

er

($)

Foundry revenue is front-end wafer processing services only. Samsung includes LSI and foundry.

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PROCESSOR LOGIC MARKET FORECAST

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MONITORS AND TRACKS COMBINATION

From module technical content to market forecast and market sharesAdvanced Packaging

Quarterly Market

Monitor

Packaging Service

DRAM

& NAND

Quarterly Market

Monitor

Memory Service

Processor Quarterly

Market Monitor

Computing Service

Market Monitorsby Yole Développement

› Market shares evaluation

› Market and technology forecasts

TeardownTracksby System Plus Consulting

› Design win identification

› Technology assessment

Consumer

Smartphones,

Smart Homes, Wearables

Combine the expertise of

Yole Développement

and

System Plus Consulting :

with our products, get a deep

understanding on the technology,

market and trends of the

semiconductor industry

Automotive

ADAS, Infotainment,

ConnectivityProcessor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020

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Contact our

Sales Team

for more

information

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Surveillance and Security 2020

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2020

YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS

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27About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020

CONTACTS

FINANCIAL SERVICES

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+33 4 72 83 01 80

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+1 208 850 3914

CUSTOM PROJECT SERVICES

› Jérome Azémar, Yole Développement -

jerome.azemar@yole.fr - +33 6 27 68 69 33

› Julie Coulon, System Plus Consulting -

jcoulon@systemplus.fr - +33 2 72 17 89 85

GENERAL

› Camille Veyrier, Marketing & Communication

camille.veyrier@yole.fr - +33 472 83 01 01

› Sandrine Leroy, Public Relations

sandrine.leroy@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 89

› General inquiries: info@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 80

Western US & Canada

Steve Laferriere - steve.laferriere@yole.fr

+ 1 310 600 8267

Eastern US & Canada

Chris Youman - chris.youman@yole.fr

+1 919 607 9839

Europe and RoW

Lizzie Levenez - lizzie.levenez@yole.fr

+49 15 123 544 182

Benelux, UK & Spain

Marine Wybranietz - marine.wybranietz@yole.fr

+49 69 96 21 76 78

India and RoA

Takashi Onozawa - takashi.onozawa@yole.fr

+81 80 4371 4887

Greater China

Mavis Wang - mavis.wang@yole.fr

+886 979 336 809 +86 136 6156 6824

Korea

Peter Ok - peter.ok@yole.fr

+82 10 4089 0233

Japan

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+81 34 4059 204

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+81 80 3577 3042

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+81 90 1775 3866

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