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From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
Processor Quarterly Market
Monitor
Computing Service 2020
Sample
2
Apple, Arm, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, Nvidia, NXP, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum, Texas
Instruments, TSMC, UMC, UniSOC, Vivo, Xiaomi, XMC, ZTE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
COMPANIES MONITORED IN THE PRODUCT
3
PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION
Processor Monitor
APU – Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, APU-based PC, SmartTV, Smartspeaker, AR, VR, Automotive infotainment
CPU, GPU
FPGA
Module II
Module III
Publication Date
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
Module I Released
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
4
APU market overview
o 2019-2025 Market dynamics
o Revenue
o Shipments
o Pricing
o Quarterly revenue – near & long term
o CAPEX
Market shares
o APU quarterly market shares
o Smartphone market shares
o Tablet market shares
o Smartwatch market shares
o APU-based Notebook market shares
o SmartSpeaker market shares
o SmartTV market shares
o AR+VR market shares
o Automotive infotainment market shares
TABLE OF CONTENTS
APU Pricing
o APU pricing, near & long term
o APU pricing by segment
o APU pricing per unit area
o APU pricing per transistor
APU Technology
o Apple die size trend
o Samsung die size trend
o Hisilicon die size trend
o Qualcomm die size trend
o APUs with embedded AI accelerators
o APUs by memory interface
o APU average die size
APU Production
o Quarterly wafer output
o Annual wafer output
o APU wafers by logic node
o APU units by logic node
o APU foundry revenue
o APU foundry revenue per wafer
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
5
Processor from smartphones as a technological leader
ON THE ROAD TO AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
6
John Lorenz
John Lorenz is a Technology and Market Senior Analyst within the Computing & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole). After holding various
positions within Micron Technology including engineering, strategic and finance roles, John is daily engaged in the development of market and
technology monitors for the logic segment of advanced semiconductors at Yole. John has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from
the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (USA), with a focus on MEMS devices.
Contact: [email protected]
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Biographies & contacts
Tom Hackenberg
Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement(Yole). Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currently focused on low and ultralow power. Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors. Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets, AI and edge computing.
Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin.
Contact : [email protected]
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
7
APU NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
8
APU LONG-TERM DYNAMICS
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 9
• Near term: seasonally weak Q1-20 and COVID-19 impacts are overlapped to place H1-20 revenue just 3% above H1-19. Production volume
outpaced demand, keeping system builds afloat. Assuming a return to pre-COVID trajectories in mid-2021.
• Long term: Following the bounce back of demand in 2021, expecting modest unit and ASP growth to combine for growing APU revenues,
nearing $50B by 2023
APU MARKET DYNAMICS
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
reve
nue (
bill
ions
USD
)
Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast Unit growth ASP growth
“APU Market Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone,
Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
10
APU MARKET PRICING
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
ASP ASP Y/Y
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
11
QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM
“Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18re
venue (
$b)
Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast
12
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
capital
expenditure
($b)
Samsung TSMC SMIC Total Y/Y growth
APU FOUNDRY CAPEX
Only includes the capex for APUs tracked within this monitor: smartphone, tablet, and
smartwatch. As more devices are added to the monitor, the tracked capex will adjust to reflect.
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
13
APU PRICE PER UNIT
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
ASP ASP % change
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
14
APU PRICE BY SEGMENT
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
15
APU PRICE BY SEGMENT
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ASP
($ p
er
unit)
All APU Smartwatch Notebook AR VR SmartSpeaker Auto Infotainment Tablet All Smartphone
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
16
APU PRICE PER BILLION TRANSISTORS
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ASP
($ p
er
Bn T
r)
Price per BnTr Y/Y %
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
17
APUS CONTAINING EMBEDDED AI ACCELERATORS
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
perc
ent
of units
Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablets Total
Embedded Accelerators: important emerging feature that places upward pressure on future die sizes trends
See also Yole’s report:
Artificial Intelligence Computing for Consumer 2019 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
18
APUS BY MEMORY INTERFACE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
perc
ent
of units
LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 LPDDR4X LPDDR5 DDR3
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
19
NON-SMARTPHONE APU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE
All Smartphone
Smartwatch
Notebook
SmartSpeaker
SmartTV
Auto Infotainment
AR
VR
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
die
siz
e (
mm
2)
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
20
Wafer production will increase as APU designers prioritize performance over cost reductions
INDUSTRY WAFER PRODUCTION
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025
waf
er
pro
duct
ion (
k w
pm
-300m
m e
quiv
)
TSMC Samsung SMIC Others
Industry 2019-2025 CAGR: 4.3%
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
21
If SMIC proves to be an adequatefoundry partner for Huawei/Hisilicon(~15% of APU wafers), there is muchmore potential business for SMIC, up to40% of APU wafers
With the strong national push forChinese technological self-sufficiency, aviable SMIC will become an attractivesupplier for Chinese OEMs
Chinese OEMs would also need toestablish suitable chip design expertise,like Huawei has with Hisilicon (OPPOand Xiaomi have already started thisprocess)
CHINESE OEM SHARE OF APU MANUFACTURING FURTHER SMIC OPPORTUNITY
15% 16% 16% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17%15% 14% 15%
17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 17%15%
38%40%
37%39%
37% 37%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1,0
00 w
afers
per
month
(300m
m e
quiv
)
Huawei Chinese OEM excl Huawei Rest of World
Total % Huawei % All Chinese OEM
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 22
APU WAFERS BY NODE
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025
waf
er
pro
duct
ion (
k w
pm
)
3-4nm 5-6nm 7-8nm 10nm 12-16nm 20nm 28nm 45nm Avg Node (wafer basis)
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
23
FOUNDRY APU REVENUE PER WAFER
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 2022 2023 2024 2025
reve
nue p
er
waf
er
($)
Foundry revenue is front-end wafer processing services only. Samsung includes LSI and foundry.
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
24
PROCESSOR LOGIC MARKET FORECAST
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
25
MONITORS AND TRACKS COMBINATION
From module technical content to market forecast and market sharesAdvanced Packaging
Quarterly Market
Monitor
Packaging Service
DRAM
& NAND
Quarterly Market
Monitor
Memory Service
Processor Quarterly
Market Monitor
Computing Service
Market Monitorsby Yole Développement
› Market shares evaluation
› Market and technology forecasts
TeardownTracksby System Plus Consulting
› Design win identification
› Technology assessment
Consumer
Smartphones,
Smart Homes, Wearables
Combine the expertise of
Yole Développement
and
System Plus Consulting :
with our products, get a deep
understanding on the technology,
market and trends of the
semiconductor industry
Automotive
ADAS, Infotainment,
ConnectivityProcessor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
26
Contact our
Sales Team
for more
information
Cameras and Computing for
Surveillance and Security 2020
(x)PU: High-End CPU and GPU
for Datacenter Applications
2020
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement
Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
27About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020
CONTACTS
FINANCIAL SERVICES
› Jean-Christophe Eloy - [email protected]
+33 4 72 83 01 80
› Ivan Donaldson - [email protected]
+1 208 850 3914
CUSTOM PROJECT SERVICES
› Jérome Azémar, Yole Développement -
[email protected] - +33 6 27 68 69 33
› Julie Coulon, System Plus Consulting -
[email protected] - +33 2 72 17 89 85
GENERAL
› Camille Veyrier, Marketing & Communication
[email protected] - +33 472 83 01 01
› Sandrine Leroy, Public Relations
[email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 89
› General inquiries: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80
Western US & Canada
Steve Laferriere - [email protected]
+ 1 310 600 8267
Eastern US & Canada
Chris Youman - [email protected]
+1 919 607 9839
Europe and RoW
Lizzie Levenez - [email protected]
+49 15 123 544 182
Benelux, UK & Spain
Marine Wybranietz - [email protected]
+49 69 96 21 76 78
India and RoA
Takashi Onozawa - [email protected]
+81 80 4371 4887
Greater China
Mavis Wang - [email protected]
+886 979 336 809 +86 136 6156 6824
Korea
Peter Ok - [email protected]
+82 10 4089 0233
Japan
Miho Ohtake - [email protected]
+81 34 4059 204
Japan and Singapore
Itsuyo Oshiba - [email protected]
+81 80 3577 3042
Japan
Toru Hosaka – [email protected]
+81 90 1775 3866
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