Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen@geog.uib.no...

Principles of Systems Dynamics

Modeling and Analysis

Principles of Systems Dynamics

Modeling and Analysis

Pål I. Davidsenpal.davidsen@geog.uib.noDepartment of Geography,

University of Bergen,N-5020 Bergen,

fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134

Pål I. Davidsenpal.davidsen@geog.uib.noDepartment of Geography,

University of Bergen,N-5020 Bergen,

fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134

Knowledge elicitation

Problem identification

Problem solving

ManagementManagement

Knowledgedissemination

System DynamicsSystem Dynamics

Inventory model diagram

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Inventory Management

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4

0 50 1001.000

1 2 3 4

0 50 1001.000

1 2 3 4

Backlog1DesBacklog2

0 50 1004.000

StructureStructure

EventsEvents

BehaviorBehavior

Structure(underlying causes)

Events(symptoms)Events

(symptoms)

Behavior(dynamics)

(symptoms)

Behavior(dynamics)

n Making

Making

(symptoms)

Behavior(dynamics)

n Making

Making

licy D

Design

(symptoms)

Behavior(dynamics)

licy D

Design

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

licy D

Design

StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

y Design

Design

Developm

Point of Departure:

Problem behavior

Point of Departure:

Problem behavior

Identify:

Underlying Problem Structure

Identify:

NewSolution Structure

Identify:

Goal:Desired behavior

Desired behaviorProblem behaviorProblem behavior

HypothesisDevelopment & Testing

Developm

System dynamicsa

problem-orientedmultidisciplinary

approach

System dynamicsa

problem-orientedmultidisciplinary

approach

Problem behaviorProblem behavior

The model shouldgenerate

the original behavior

for the right reasons

The model shouldgenerate

the original behavior

Desired behavior=>

The model willgenerate

the desired behavior

=>The model will

generate

the desired behavior

The model shouldexplain

not “just”predict

The model shouldexplain

not “just”predict

The model must constitute a

causal feedback theory

The model must constitute a

causal feedback theory

Developm

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize

the relationship:

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

the relationship:

incomplex, dynamic systems

ComplexityComplexity

SimplicitySimplicity

RealismRealism

AbstractionAbstraction

RealismRealism

It is better to find …It is better to find …

thanthan

… a satisfying solution to a problem that exists …… a satisfying solution to a problem that exists …

… an optimal solution toa non-existing problem

MaintainingRealism

We must not onlymodel explicitly

“the plumbing of the system”

We must not onlymodel explicitly

“the plumbing of the system”

Make observations Form expectations

Establish attitudes

Act on incentives (decide)

We need to describe how we;We need to describe how we;

Actual Observed Confirmed Projected Desired Expected magnitudes

We need to differentiate between;

Petroleum Exploration

Perceived Perceived

ProductivityProductivity

ReportedReported

Estimated Estimated

ActualActual

Exploration EffortsExploration Efforts

DesiredDesired

DiscoveriesDiscoveries

Estimated Estimated

IdealIdeal

Perceived Perceived

NominalNominal

ReportedReported

Estimated Estimated

ActualActual

DesiredDesired

IncentivesIncentivesExploration EffortsExploration Efforts

DesiredDesired

Estimated Estimated

IdealIdeal

Perceived Perceived

NominalNominal

ReportedReported

Estimated Estimated

ActualActual

DesiredDesired

IncentivesIncentivesExploration EffortsExploration Efforts

DesiredDesired

Estimated Estimated

IdealIdeal

StructureStructure

BehaviorBehavior

the relationship:

incomplex, dynamic systems

Accumulation Accumulation FeedbackFeedback

Non-linearityNon-linearity

Complexitya synergy of

FeedbacksFeedbacks

Non-linearitiesNon-linearities

Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays

Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays

… the origin of dynamics… the origin of dynamics

Instantaneous causality

Causalityplaying out over time

In a causality thatspans time

nothing happens instantaneously

In a causality thatspans time

nothing happens instantaneously

Effects unfoldover time

Accumulations

distribute and form the effects of a change

across a system(in space)over time

Accumulations

distribute and form the effects of a change

across a system(in space)over time

InventoryProduction

RateShipment

A first order accumulation process (building up distance)

Manpower

Inventory

Hiring &Training Rate

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

A second order accumulation process (building up speed)

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Training Cap.Building Rate

Training Cap.Decay Rate

A third order accumulation process (building up accell.)

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Manpower

Inventory

Trainers

ProductionRate

ShipmentRate

AttritionRate

Multiple accumulations

introduceintransparency that leads us to

focus on short-term problems while ignoring

long-term benefits

focus on short-term problems while ignoring

long-term benefits

focus on short-term benefits while ignoring

long-term problems

focus on short-term benefits while ignoring

long-term problems

GainGain

Additional ComplexityAdditional Complexity

ReputationReputation

LossLoss

GainGain

Indicated Rep. > ReputationIndicated Rep. > Reputation

LossLoss

IndicatedReputationIndicated

Reputation

Time to GainReputation

GainGain

Indicated Rep. < ReputationIndicated Rep. < Reputation

LossLoss

Reputation

Time to LooseReputation

GainGain

Additional ComplexityAdditional Complexity

LossLoss

Reputation

Time to LooseReputation

Time to GainReputation

Latenciesand

the time over whichthe effects play out

are often misperceivedmore often

underestimated than overestimated

Latenciesand

the time over whichthe effects play out

are often misperceivedmore often

underestimated than overestimated

Stocks+

Backlog

OrderPlacement

OrderExecution

Inventory

ProductionRate

DeliveryRate

RevenueRate

PaymentRate

Personnel

HiringRate

AttritionRate

Capital

AcquisitionRate

DiscardRate

PaymentRate

DepreciationRate

BookValue

Capital

AcquisitionRate

DiscardRate

PaymentRate

DepreciationRate

BookValue

Capital

AcquisitionRate

DiscardRatePrice

PaymentRate

DepreciationRate

BookValue

Capital

AcquisitionRate

DiscardRatePrice

Annual Fraction Depreciated

Annual Fraction Discarded

IdentifiedReserves

DiscoveryRate

ProductionRate

Depreciation

BookValue

IdentifiedReserves

DiscoveryRate

ProductionRate

ExplorationExpenditures

Depreciation

BookValue

IdentifiedReserves

DiscoveryRate

ProductionRate

Cum Production

Recovery Technology

Total Recoverable Resource Remaining(CumulativeProduction + IdentifiedReserves)*FractionRecoverable

-CumulativeProduction)

Depreciation

BookValue

IdentifiedReserves

DiscoveryRate

ProductionRate

Unit Exploration Expenditures

Total Recoverable Resource Remaining

Recovery Technology Cum

Production

Depreciation

BookValue

IdentifiedReserves

DiscoveryRate

ProductionRate

Unit Exploration Expenditures

Total Recoverable Resource Remaining

Recovery Technology Cum

Production

No stocks,no state

No flows,no dynamics

Stocksact asbuffers

they de-couple flows

Stocksact asbuffers

they de-couple flows

Stocksintegrate

Import Rate Export Rate

Stocksintegrate

Import Rate Export Rate

-Export Rate

Net Import Rate=

Import Rate

The Debt Model

-Export Rate

Import Rate

-Export Rate

Import Rate

Stocksconstitute

delays

Stocksconstitute

delays

-Export Rate

Import Rate

Just like driving a car .......Capital

Personnel

Shipments

Inventory

Exp. Demand

AttritionRecruitment

Acquisitions Phase-outs

Production

Adj. Exp.Demand

Market Demand

Dynamics Dynamics

DelayDelay FeedbackFeedback

Distributes the effectof our efforts

through the system over time

Distributes the effectof our efforts

through the system over time

Price-+

DemandSupply

Perceived Shortages

Delaydistributes the effect

of our effortsthrough the system over time

Delaydistributes the effect

of our effortsthrough the system over time

Price-+

DemandSupply

Perceived Shortages

Delayobscures

the relationship betweencause and effect

Delayobscures

the relationship betweencause and effect

Price-+

DemandSupply

Perceived Shortages

=>It is difficult to …

Price+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

identify problems(what are their causes)

Price+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

take effective actions(what do they cause)take effective actions(what do they cause)

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

… and feedback ...

+… does not make it

less difficult… does not make it

less difficult

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

A note on ...A note on ...

+… econometrics… econometrics

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

A note on ...A note on ...

… the significance of

the time horizon

… the significance of

the time horizon

FeedbackFeedback

Accumulation Accumulation

Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays

From the origin of dynamics to… From the origin of dynamics to…

FeedbackFeedback

Accumulations ≡ Latency/ DelayAccumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay

… circular causality … circular causality

Circular causality

leadus to reason in circles:

Cause becomes effectand

effect becomes cause

Circular causality

leadus to reason in circles:

Cause becomes effectand

effect becomes cause

This is why we need to say

Some change in Bleads to a change in A …

which over a period of time

leads to a change in B

This is why we need to say

Some change in Bleads to a change in A …

which over a period of time

leads to a change in B

A BA B

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

SpeculativeDemand

SpeculativeSupply

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply +

SpeculativeDemand

SpeculativeSupply

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

DemandSupply +

SpeculativeDemand

SpeculativeSupply

MoreFeedback

(FblExmpls)

Managementfrom a

System Dynamicsperspective

Managementfrom a

Strengthenfavorable loops

Managementfrom a

Weakenunfavorable loops

Managementfrom a

Price-+

Perceived Shortages

Demand-

Supply

SpeculativeDemand

SpeculativeSupply

Challenge:

What loops arefavorable or unfavorable

variesfrom one point in time

to the nextbecause …

Challenge:

to the nextbecause …

Effects take timeEffects take time

Effects feed backEffects feed back

... not only do... not only do

Effects take timeEffects take time

Effects feed backEffects feed back

Effects also synergizeEffects also synergize

FeedbacksFeedbacks

Non-linearitiesNon-linearities

Complexitya composite of

Accumulations ≡ Latency/ DelayAccumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay

FeedbackFeedback

Accumulation Accumulation

Non-linearity

causes

the response to a change in a variable

to be conditioned bythe state

of the system…

Non-linearity

causes

of the system…

Efficiency in Exploration

0 0.5 1Fract. Total Resource

Remaining Undiscovered

...(1) by the value of the variable itself.. ...(1) by the value of the variable itself..

Efficiency in Exploration

0 0.5 1Fract. Total Resource

Remaining Undiscovered

Non-linearity

causes

of the system…

Non-linearity

causes

of the system…

X * Yor

X / Yrather than

X + Y or X - Y

X * Yor

X / Yrather than

X + Y or X - Y

.. (2) by the value of other variables.. .. (2) by the value of other variables..

Subsystem I Subsystem II

Yield=

Investments * Productivity=

Investments*

Productivity From Technology*

Effect Of ExplorationOn Productivity

Yield=

Investments*

Technology

ExplorationFinance

Investments

Productivity

Eff. Of ExplorationOnProductivity

To be continued ...

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)

UndiscoveredResource

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

TechnicallyUndiscoverable

Resource Remaining

TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining

(TDRR)

UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource

(UR)(UR)

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

Productivity From TechnologyProductivity From Technology==

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR)

//Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

Productivity From TechnologyProductivity From Technology==

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR)

//Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

Effect of Exploration Effect of Exploration On ProductivityOn Productivity

Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered Resource (UR) //Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

(UR)(UR)

Effect of Exploration Effect of Exploration On ProductivityOn Productivity

Yield=

Investments*

Yield=

Investments*

Technology

ExplorationFinance

Investments

Productivity

Eff. Of ExplorationOnProductivity

Yield=

Investments*

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)

Yield=

Investments*

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)

Cumulative

Identified Resource

Additions to

Resource Remaining

(TDRR)

Yield=

Investments*

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //

Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)

Yield=

Investments*

Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //

Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)

(TDRR)

…so thatnon-linearity

causes

effects to becomeblended

…so thatnon-linearity

causes

effects to becomeblended

=>=>Non-linearity

makes it difficult to

establish experiencewith respect to

underlying causes(diagnosis)

andleverage points, doses and timing

(treatment)

Non-linearitymakes it difficult to

establish experiencewith respect to

underlying causes(diagnosis)

andleverage points, doses and timing

(treatment)

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

% of Investmentsin Production

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

Demand

-Investm. in Prod.

Investm. in R&D

R&DEfficiency

Price/QLT Sales

Revenue

ProductionCapacity

ProductionRate

InventoryLevel

utilize formal analysis

RealismRealism

It is better to be almost right(ca. 7.5) …It is better to be almost right(ca. 7.5) …

…precisely wrong(3.85564923557)

thanthan

Non-linearity

=>Endogenous

shifts in structural dominance

Non-linearity

=>Endogenous

shifts in structural dominance

Interdisciplinary analogies

Reality checks

Defining loops that serve a purpose

Interdisciplinary analogies

Reality checks

Defining loops that serve a purpose

Population

Birth Rate

Birth Rate Death Rate

Population

Reference Growth Fraction

Population

RGF*PRGF*P

Population

RGF*PRGF*P

Carrying Capacity

Population

Stress

RGF*PRGF*P

Carrying Capacity

Population

Stress

RGF*S*PRGF*P

Carrying Capacity

Population

Stress

RGF*P*P/CRGF*P

Carrying Capacity

Population

RGF*P2/CRGF*P

Population

RGF*P2/C

5 000-

10 000-

Months

Population

NetGrowthRate

0 50 100 150 200 2500

5 000-

10 000-

Months+

Population

5 000-

10 000-

Months

Infectious

Population

5 000-

10 000-

Months

Susceptible

Infectious

Population

Infectious

c * i * S/N * I

Susceptible

Net Recruitment Rate

Prob Of Mtg. Susc. Hot Contacts Per Week

S/N c * I

Contact Frequency

Infectivity

Population

Stress

RGF*P*SRGF*P

Carrying Capacity

Infectious

Potential Recruitment Rate

c * i * I

Note:If the entire population

was susceptible,then all meetings with aninfections is potentially

a recruitment:

Infectious

Potential Recruitment Rate

Growth Resistance

c * i * I

Total PopulationNote:

No more thanthe total population

Nmay become

infectiousi.e. the total populationis the carrying capacity

Infectious

Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate

Growth Resistance

c*i*I*GRc * i * I

Total PopulationNote:

The fractionI/N

of the populationhas already been infectedand a meeting between

such a personand

another infected does NOT contribute to

recruitment

Infectious

c*i*I*I/Nc * i * I

Infectious

c * i * I

Recruitmentunder the assumption that

the total population is susceptible

c*i*I*I/N-+

Infectious

c * i * I

Recruitmentunder the assumption that

the total population is susceptible

Recruitmentfailing because a fraction (I/N) of

the total population is not susceptible

c*i*I*I/N-+

Infectious

c*i*I2/Nc * i * I-+

Infectious

c*i*I2/Nc * i * I

c * i * I - c*i*I2/N

Infectious

c*i*I2/Nc * i * I

c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

Recruitmentsucceeding because a fraction (1 - I/N)

of the total population is still susceptible

Infectious

c*i*I2/Nc * i * I

c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

Infectious

c*i*I2/Nc * i * I

c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

Infectious

c*i*I2/N

c * i * I -+

c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

Infectious

c*i*I2/N

c * i * I

c * i * I * (1 - I/N)

Infectious

c * i * (1 - I/N) * I

Infectious

c * i * (1 - I/N) * I

InfectiousSusceptible

c * i * (1 – (N-S)/N) * I

InfectiousSusceptible

c * i * ((N – (N-S))/N) * I

Infectious

c * i * S/N * I

Susceptible

Infectious

c * i * S/N * I

Susceptible

S/N c * I

Contact Frequency

Infectivity

Infectious

c * i * I/N * S

Susceptible

Infectious

c * i * I/N * S

Susceptible

S/N c * I

Contact Frequency

Infectivity

Infectious

c * i * I *S/N

Susceptible

Infectious

(c * i) * I (c*i*I/N)*I

NOTE:Although the models are equivalent,

the positive and negative loops in these two models are not the same!They ”tell the story” in two very different ways

5 000-

10 000-

Months

Susceptible

Infectious

NetRecruitmentRate

Infectious

Susceptible

NetRecruitmentRate

Susceptible

SummarySummary

Endogenous Shiftsin

Structural Significance

Diffusion and DepletionProcesses

Masking anegative loop

by apositive loop

Endogenous Shiftsin

Structural Significance

Diffusion and DepletionProcesses

Masking anegative loop

by apositive loop

Exploration Rate

Exploration Potential

Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot Expl. / Exploit. Pot

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploration Rate

Exploited

Exploitation Rate

Exploited

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploited

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Exploited

Investments inExploration

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Revenues Exploited

Productivityin Exploration

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Revenues Exploited

Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Revenues Exploited

Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration

Exploration Rate

Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration

Investments inExploration Technology

Exploration Technology

+Expl. / Exploit. Pot

Revenues Exploited

Productivity of Investmentsin Technology

Exploration Rate

Revenues

Investments inTechnology

Exploited

Exploration Rate

Exploitation Rate

Revenues

Exploited

Exploration Rate

Revenues

Exploited

Investments in Technology

Productivity of Investments

Exploration Rate

+Revenues

Exploited

Exploration Rate

+Exploited

ExploitedExploration Technology

Exploration Rate

Revenues Exploited

Exploration Rate

Revenues Exploited

Exploration Rate

Revenues Exploited

Exploration Rate

Revenues

Investments in Exploration

Productivity of Investments

Exploration Rate

+Revenues

ExploitationRate Expl. / Exploit. Pot

Exploration Rate

Explored / Exploit. Pot

Undiscovered

Discovery Rate

Discovered

Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining

(TDRR)

Investment and technology loop dominance

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

UndiscoveredDiscovered

Discovered

Discovery Rate

(TDRR)

Undiscovered

Depletion loop dominanceDepletion loop dominance

Discovered

Discovery Rate

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

(TDRR)

DTPDTP

Undiscovered

Discovered

Discovery Rate

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

Technically RecoverableResource Remaining

(TRRR)

(TDRR)

DTPDTP

Undiscovered

Discovered

Discovery Rate

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

RTPRTP

(TRRR)

(TDRR)

DTPDTP

Recovered

Production Rate

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

RTPRTP

Investment and technology loop dominance

(TRRR)

(TDRR)

DTPDTP

Unrecovered

Recovered

Production Rate

5 000-

10 000-

50 Years

RTPRTP

Could this modelbe applied in the

health sector?

Patients who, techno-logically considered,

cannot be treated

Patients who, techno-logically considered,

may be treated

Alle PasienterAlle Pasienter

TechnologicalTechnologicalprogressprogress

Progress in Progress in utilizationutilization

Untreated

Shift in loop-dominanceShift in loop-dominance

Treated

Progress

Patients

treated

A diffusion model

Managementfrom a

to the next!

NoteNote

Managementfrom a

In developing robust policies,management must establish a

surveillance ofloop dominance

Managementfrom a

so as to decide onwhich to weaken

andwhich to strengthenat any point in time

so as to decide onwhich to weaken

andwhich to strengthenat any point in time

BehaviorBehavior

StructureStructure

SPREADSHEET

Multimedia databasesMultimedia databases

Modern Problem Statement Format:Modern Problem Statement Format:

Point of departurePoint of departure

Source Material

FormalizationFormalization

Source Material

SD-model

DocumentationDocumentation

Source Material

SD-model

Design and ControlDesign and Control

Source Material

SD-model

Source Material

SD-model

IllustrationIllustration

Source Material

SD-model

TransparencyTransparency

The Modeling Process

Problem articulation

Formulation of dynamic hypothesis

Formulation of simulation model

Testing

Policy design & evaluation

Problem articulation

Formulation of dynamic hypothesis

Formulation of simulation model

Testing

Policy design & evaluation

A predator prey model

HLstart

Peter M. Senge:

The Fifth Discipline

From Archetypesto

Generic Structures & Behaviorand back again.....

Peter M. Senge:

The Fifth Discipline

From Archetypesto

Generic Structures & Behaviorand back again.....

Limits to GrowthLimits to Growth

Eroding GoalsEroding Goals Escalation => Success to the SucessfulEscalation => Success to the Sucessful

Tragedy of the CommonsTragedy of the Commons Fixes that FailFixes that Fail Shifting the Burden to the IntervenerShifting the Burden to the Intervener => =>

Dependency & AddictionDependency & Addiction

Archetypes

Class of Challenges

ProblemSymptom

Own solution-

Class of Solutions:Shifting the burden to an intervener

Intervention

Own solution

-Problem

Symptom

Class I of Side Effects:Dependence

Intervention

Own solution

Ability tosolve+

-Problem

Symptom

Class II of Side Effects:Addiction

Intervention

Own solution

Ability tosolve

Quality ofIntervention

ProblemSymptom +

A Dynamic Story Problem Behavior

0 50 1001.000

Backlog1DesBacklog2

0 50 1004.000

Backlog

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

DesBacklog

Backlog

Backlog Management

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

- Backlog Adjustment

Backlog Order Rate

Ideal StructureIdeal Structure

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Response of the Backlog model to a 10% step increase in orders in week 10

ExpOrdRate RepairRateDesRepairRate

0 50 100900

Response of the Backlog model to a 10% increase in orders in week 10

BacklogDesBacklog

0 50 100

A Dynamic Story Additional Evidence

Backlog1DesBacklog2

0 50 1004.000

WorkForce1DesWorkForce2

0 50 10050

HireRate1QuitRate2

0 50 1001,0

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

OrderRate

DesRepairRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog Order Rate

Problem StructureProblem Structure

Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

0 50 1001.000

Backlog1DesBacklog2

0 50 1004.000

SolutionSolutionOvertimeOvertime

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

OrderRate

DesRepairRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

Orders

Expectations

ProductionPlanning

Labor Management

ChghEOR

ExpOrderRate

HireRateQuitRate

Productivity

SchedPressure

Backlog

RepairRate

DesBacklog

DesDelDelTCB

CorrBacklog

NormaRepairRate

DesWorkForce

CorrWorkForce

WorkForce

DesRepairRate

OrderRate

Backlog

Backlog Management

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate

Order Rate

Long term solutionLong term solution

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

WorkforceNormal Repair Rate

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Hire Rate

Order Rate

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Long term solutionLong term solution

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Trouble I: DependenceTrouble I: Dependence

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Trouble II: AddictionTrouble II: Addiction

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Trouble II: AddictionTrouble II: Addiction

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

MTBFComplexityComplexity

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

MTBFNeg. FeedbackNeg. Feedback

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

MTBFPos. FeedbackPos. Feedback

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

MTBFDelayDelay

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

MTBFNon-linearityNon-linearity

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Schedulepressure

o.5 1.5

Overtime

o.5 1.5

Schedulepressure

MTBFNon-linearityNon-linearity

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

Schedule Pressure

Des Workforce

Workforce

Backlog Adjustment

Backlog

Order Rate

Expected Over-time

Des Repair Rate

Repair Rate

UncertaintyUncertainty

Class of Challenges

Own solution-

Problem

Instance of a Challenge

-Recruitment

Under-/Over-Capacity

Class of Solutions:Shifting the burden to an intervener

Intervention

Own solution

-Problem

Instance of a Solution:Shifting the burden to the workforce

Overtime

Recruitment

Class I of Side Effects:Dependence

Intervention

Own solution

Ability tosolve

-+Problem

Instance I of a Side Effect:Dependence on Overtime

Recruitment

Ability/willingn.to recruit

Overtime

Under-/Over-Capacity +

Class II of Side Effects:Addiction

Intervention

Own solution

Ability tosolve

Quality ofIntervention

Problem

Instance II of a Side Effect:Increasing load through decreased MTBF

Recruitment

Overtime

Ability/willingn.to recruit

SPREADSHEET

Multimedia databasesMultimedia databases

Modern Problem Statement Format:Modern Problem Statement Format:

Point of departurePoint of departure

Source Material

FormalizationFormalization

Source Material

SD-model

DocumentationDocumentation

Source Material

SD-model

Design and ControlDesign and Control

Source Material

SD-model

Source Material

SD-model

IllustrationIllustration

Source Material

SD-model

TransparencyTransparency

Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen@geog.uib.no...

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