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THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR MISSISSIPPI
Phil PepperMississippi Institutions of Higher LearningPresentation to 2010 LEARN ConferenceMarch 29, 2010
2009 ECONOMIC STATS
Mississippi United States2009 Populations Estimate (US Census) 2,951,996 307,006,550
2009 Total Personal Income, Billions (US BEA) $88.9 $12,015.5
2009 Unemployment Rate (US BLS) 9.6% 9.3%
2009 Unemployment Rate U-4 (US BLS) 10.2% 9.7%
2008 Workforce Participation Rate, 16 yrs+ (US Census)
60.1% 66.0%
2008 Per Capita Income (US BEA) $30,103 $39,138
2
3
4
Mississippi Nonfarm Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
1990
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200Chart Title
Thousands
1,160.6 May 00
1,108.3 Jun 03 1,085.5
Feb 10
1,159.0 Jan 08
6
Mississippi Employment by Major Industry Sector, 1990 - 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1990
1990
1991
1992
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1996
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
MFG Trade, Trans. & Utilities Services Gov.
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s
7
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHL.
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN REAL GDP DURING PERIODS OF U.S. EXPANSION/CONTRACTION
Trough-To-Peak
8
SLOWING INCOME GROWTH IN THE US
Average Annual Growth In Real Total Personal Income
During Periods of U.S. Expansion
Mar
96
Sep 9
6
Mar
97
Sep 9
7
Mar
98
Sep 9
8
Mar
99
Sep 9
9
Mar
00
Sep 0
0
Mar
01
Sep 0
1
Mar
02
Sep 0
2
Mar
03
Sep 0
3
Mar
04
Sep 0
4
Mar
05
Sep 0
5
Mar
06
Sep 0
6
Mar
07
Sep 0
7
Mar
08
Sep 0
8
Mar
09
Sep-0
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Chart Title
Millions o
f 2004 $
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
MISSISSIPPI REAL VALUE OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
9
1010
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
US MS
Percentage of Population 18-64 in the Workforce
11
MS CONSUMERS ARE NOT SPENDING
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
$50,000,000
LoansDeposits
Source: FDIC
1212
SALES TAX TRANSFERS TRENDS1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1%
2.4%3.5%
5.6%
12.3%
5.0%
1.4%
5.9%7.6%6.7%
4.6%
0.9%1.9%
1.7%
4.2%6.1%
17.2%
4.1%
0.9%
-1.3%
-9.5%
Fiscal Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June
2009(Preliminary)
2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
Transfers to the G.F. -- Growth Over Prior Year
1313
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX TRENDS1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1%
10.4%
3.3%
15.1%
12.1%
8.1% 8.3%
6.7%
11.5%10.5%
3.2%2.9%
-3.8%
2.6%4.1%
9.8%
6.9%
18.4%
4.5%
-4.4%
-9.8%
Fiscal Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June
2009(Preliminary)
2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June 2009
(Preliminary). 2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
GENERAL FUND TRENDS
14
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2.5%
5.1%
1.3%
9.1%
11.4%
9.7%
2.9%
5.9%6.5%
7.6%
2.8%2.1%
-2.1%
2.2%
4.0%
7.2%
12.8%
10.5%
3.1%
-4.2%
-6.3%
Fiscal Year
Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year
15
GROWTH OVER PRIOR YEAR: WITHHOLDINGS AND GROSS RETAIL SALES TAX TRANSFERS
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-
09 Mar
May Ju
lSe
pNov
Jan-
10M
ar*
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Withholdings
March 2010 is preliminary
SUMMARY
Growth in the US and MS will be below the long-term average for the foreseeable future
Job growth in particular will be anemic in MS
State revenue growth will be slow with greater frequency of negative years
Restructuring of State verses Federal government -- politics, politics, politics
Education, Education, Education 16
17
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